Deleted
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Jun 9, 2018 21:56:28 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2018 21:56:28 GMT
Check the Coldside vote at the council election last year. It’s not insignificant. Yet we’re probably the poorest ward in Dundee. How do you explain that? Yooniunism! To an extent but that’s only part of the issue. I think my party’s campaigning on Scotland’s notoriously soft touch justice system, our acceptance of Brexit, our policies to replace free tuition with a graduate tax etc. and to reverse the SNP’s tax increases are slowly getting through and those policies are popular. That voters in Scotland who have right wing values, of which there are lots, finally have a viable party to vote for also helps.
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Deleted
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Jun 9, 2018 22:07:21 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2018 22:07:21 GMT
Socialism has nothing to do with it. Please see above You said that I don’t interact with working class people on a daily basis, which is ludicrous and blatantly false, and it is reminiscent of the attacks that those of us who aren’t Labour supporters but are in traditionally Labour voting demographics face. The feminist campaigner and activist Nimco Ali has written eloquently about this same problem. you may well be the as working class a scot as Kier Hardie but I was merely pointing out that such a comment would suggest otherwise. As you well point out many aren't Labour voters and some clicktavists might bawl in outrage but your generalisation that the working class share more affinity with the conservatives based on your interaction with your neighbourhood seems just as dismissive as the bawling clickativist. I'm sure many working class folks would balk at that suggestion just as much as they would the bawling clicktavist
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YouGov
Jun 9, 2018 22:12:19 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Jun 9, 2018 22:12:19 GMT
I also find it interesting that someone down in England thinks that Dundee is some bastion of the wealthy. How sad Though the fact that the Conservative vote in Dundee is heavily concentrated in Broughty Ferry would appear to undermine your thesis somewhat... Charity shops are good there. In fact vinyl wise Dundee as a whole can be worth a visit for the record collector, even Groucho's, a wee drive out to Guardbridge you can visit Scotland's Hidden Record Shop - Rob Walkers, his prices are on the mark but usually some rare stuff.
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Deleted
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Jun 9, 2018 22:19:35 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2018 22:19:35 GMT
You said that I don’t interact with working class people on a daily basis, which is ludicrous and blatantly false, and it is reminiscent of the attacks that those of us who aren’t Labour supporters but are in traditionally Labour voting demographics face. The feminist campaigner and activist Nimco Ali has written eloquently about this same problem. you may well be the as working class a scot as Kier Hardie but I was merely pointing out that such a comment would suggest otherwise. As you well point out many aren't Labour voters and some clicktavists might bawl in outrage but your generalisation that the working class share more affinity with the conservatives based on your interaction with your neighbourhood seems just as dismissive as the bawling clickativist. I'm sure many working class folks would balk at that suggestion just as much as they would the bawling clicktavist Value wise I think working class people do have far, far more Socially Conservative than Socialist values, yes. I find it hard to see why any would think otherwise. Though I accept you do BTW, this isn’t an attack but I’m from Carlisle. Not originally Scotland.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2018 22:24:38 GMT
Given that you have made clear your belief that Londoners can't possibly be working class or believe what you believe while voting Labour because they are too 'Metropolitan (wink wink)', you can't really accuse others of denying your identity. Ok. My use of the term “metropolitan” is not a dog whistle for black and brown people, which is your insinuation, it refers to the clash between those in very large cities who hold largely multicultural, pro EU, and pro mass unskilled immigration views and those who live outside them who don’t and how that culture war dominates our politics. I remain to be convinced that that is as true as many seem to believe, or indeed as some would perhaps like. There have certainly been some shifts along those lines in both directions, but recent election results do not appear to provide adequate evidence for this being the dominant divide in British politics. I might suggest that the Conservatives being the party of property ownership is at least as significant...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2018 23:03:48 GMT
Ok. My use of the term “metropolitan” is not a dog whistle for black and brown people, which is your insinuation, it refers to the clash between those in very large cities who hold largely multicultural, pro EU, and pro mass unskilled immigration views and those who live outside them who don’t and how that culture war dominates our politics. I remain to be convinced that that is as true as many seem to believe, or indeed as some would perhaps like. There have certainly been some shifts along those lines in both directions, but recent election results do not appear to provide adequate evidence for this being the dominant divide in British politics. I might suggest that the Conservatives being the party of property ownership is at least as significant... For the record, I don’t want it to be the truth as identity politics is not a very conservative ideological basis, although I must admit to watching with some degree of satisfsction as the left begin to eat itself over it. On your point about property ownership, it’s true that those who own their own home vote Conservative but as you know home ownership is declining and is very low among working class voters. So I do not understand how if that was still as significant as other factors why our support is growing so much among working class voters, other than weirdos like me who’ve been working class Tories for years😂. For me, it seems the only satisfactory explanation for that is the cultural divide sparked by Brexit which is reshaping our politics. Is the word “dominates” too strong, perhaps, but it’s getting there.
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Deleted
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Jun 9, 2018 23:26:10 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2018 23:26:10 GMT
you may well be the as working class a scot as Kier Hardie but I was merely pointing out that such a comment would suggest otherwise. As you well point out many aren't Labour voters and some clicktavists might bawl in outrage but your generalisation that the working class share more affinity with the conservatives based on your interaction with your neighbourhood seems just as dismissive as the bawling clickativist. I'm sure many working class folks would balk at that suggestion just as much as they would the bawling clicktavist Value wise I think working class people do have far, far more Socially Conservative than Socialist values, yes. I find it hard to see why any would think otherwise. Though I accept you do BTW, this isn’t an attack but I’m from Carlisle. Not originally Scotland. I would agree many might have socially conservative views. Many aren't socialists either. Many are socialists and hold socially conservative views. Though I suspect you mean the liberal or libertarian views that are held by many socialists on things like gay marriage, abortion, etc. Though these are views also held by the leadership of the Conservative Party too. I might go as far to say the social differences are less stark than the economic ones. After all both party leaderships backed gay marriage, both are pro life, etc. They differ on the nuclear family. Even issues like defence and welfare both parties manifestos were similar. Both stuck to the 3% GDP defence spending and renewing trident. Neither promised to reverse the benefit cap.
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Deleted
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Jun 9, 2018 23:43:35 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2018 23:43:35 GMT
On your point about property ownership, it’s true that those who own their own home vote Conservative but as you know home ownership is declining and is very low among working class voters. Depends how you're defining 'working class' here. In 2016, 77% of households led by those over 65 were owner occupiers, compared to 34% of those under 35. Two decades earlier, the figures were 63% and 54% respectively. Given this, the increased generational polarisation in voting behaviour is hardly surprising. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7706/CBP-7706.pdf
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YouGov
Jun 10, 2018 11:33:50 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Jun 10, 2018 11:33:50 GMT
In the last couple of pages of debate, I think we've missed something quite significant. The C2DE statistical group is increasingly dominated by pensioners, whilst the ABC1 group isn't. And post-Brexit-Referendum, age appears to be the most significant factor by far in determining which side of the left/right divide somebody is on.
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YouGov
Jun 10, 2018 13:22:45 GMT
Post by thecatman on Jun 10, 2018 13:22:45 GMT
In the last couple of pages of debate, I think we've missed something quite significant. The C2DE statistical group is increasingly dominated by pensioners, whilst the ABC1 group isn't. And post-Brexit-Referendum, age appears to be the most significant factor by far in determining which side of the left/right divide somebody is on. The support for Labour amongst the 65+ age demographic is very poor. I believe from memory that Labour leads all other age groups. On the substance of the supposed 11% swing in the C2DE group from Lab to Con, I've done the analysis, and essentially the claim is nonsense. Each YG data point represents a range in reality (thus MOE), and the claimants have just cherry picked the single data points that give the biggest headline. The true MOE of sub samples must be larger than expected due to not being weighted. This, I suspect, was the key motivation of the Tweet. If the claim was made by anyone with psephological knowledge, they must know it's a bit dodgy to say the least. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quick update. I've looked at the dataset via a five poll rolling average and EWMA, and here are the results from 7/1/18 to the 4/6/18. Five poll RA - swing of 4.2% EWMA - swing of 5.13%
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mondialito
Labour
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Jun 10, 2018 14:00:44 GMT
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Post by mondialito on Jun 10, 2018 14:00:44 GMT
In the last couple of pages of debate, I think we've missed something quite significant. The C2DE statistical group is increasingly dominated by pensioners, whilst the ABC1 group isn't. And post-Brexit-Referendum, age appears to be the most significant factor by far in determining which side of the left/right divide somebody is on. The support for Labour amongst the 65+ age demographic is very poor. I believe from memory that Labour leads all other age groups. On the substance of the supposed 11% swing in the C2DE group from Lab to Con, I've done the analysis, and essentially the claim is nonsense. Each YG data point represents a range in reality (thus MOE), and the claimants have just cherry picked the single data points that give the biggest headline. The true MOE of sub samples must be larger than expected due to not being weighted. This, I suspect, was the key motivation of the Tweet. If the claim was made by anyone with psephological knowledge, they must know it's a bit dodgy to say the least. I refer the Honourable Member to Sibboleth's prior comments on Ian Warren.
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YouGov
Jun 10, 2018 14:19:09 GMT
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jun 10, 2018 14:19:09 GMT
The C2DE statistical group is increasingly dominated by pensioners, whilst the ABC1 group isn't. Is this true? Why is this the case?
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Sibboleth
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Jun 10, 2018 14:23:11 GMT
Post by Sibboleth on Jun 10, 2018 14:23:11 GMT
It's a bit more complex than that, but the categories are problematic (as well as outdated) and the tendency to ascribe descriptive names to them is misleading. It's also fairly clear the internal numbers from panel-based firms do not have 'social science' value. Unfortunately most people who follow politics are gullible when statistics are concerned.
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Post by thecatman on Jun 10, 2018 14:40:53 GMT
These are the categories:
Grade Social class Chief income earner's occupation Frequency in 2008[3] A upper middle class Higher managerial, administrative or professional 4% B middle class Intermediate managerial, administrative or professional 23% C1 lower middle class Supervisory or clerical and junior managerial, administrative or professional 29% C2 skilled working class Skilled manual workers 21% D working class Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers 15% E non working Casual or lowest grade workers, pensioners, and others who depend on the welfare state for their income 8%
Non working people (ie pensionsers) get roped in E - Non Working. More retired folk, more in category E, despite plenty of pensioners being very well off.
It does seem a system unfit to describe modern society.
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Deleted
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Jun 10, 2018 22:52:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2018 22:52:58 GMT
Ok. My use of the term “metropolitan” is not a dog whistle for black and brown people, which is your insinuation, it refers to the clash between those in very large cities who hold largely multicultural, pro EU, and pro mass unskilled immigration views and those who live outside them who don’t and how that culture war dominates our politics. I remain to be convinced that that is as true as many seem to believe, or indeed as some would perhaps like. There have certainly been some shifts along those lines in both directions, but recent election results do not appear to provide adequate evidence for this being the dominant divide in British politics. I might suggest that the Conservatives being the party of property ownership is at least as significant... Putney proper just voted more than 2:1 for the Conservatives. We aren’t really a culture war sort of place - and if we were it’d be on the pro-EU, Pro-immigration side. Also quite low on property ownership. And average age.
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Deleted
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Jun 10, 2018 22:53:55 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2018 22:53:55 GMT
These are the categories: Grade Social class Chief income earner's occupation Frequency in 2008[3] A upper middle class Higher managerial, administrative or professional 4% B middle class Intermediate managerial, administrative or professional 23% C1 lower middle class Supervisory or clerical and junior managerial, administrative or professional 29% C2 skilled working class Skilled manual workers 21% D working class Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers 15% E non working Casual or lowest grade workers, pensioners, and others who depend on the welfare state for their income 8% Non working people (ie pensionsers) get roped in E - Non Working. More retired folk, more in category E, despite plenty of pensioners being very well off. It does seem a system unfit to describe modern society. What about retired people who aren’t yet pensioners?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 11, 2018 6:29:47 GMT
I remain to be convinced that that is as true as many seem to believe, or indeed as some would perhaps like. There have certainly been some shifts along those lines in both directions, but recent election results do not appear to provide adequate evidence for this being the dominant divide in British politics. I might suggest that the Conservatives being the party of property ownership is at least as significant... Putney proper just voted more than 2:1 for the Conservatives. We aren’t really a culture war sort of place - and if we were it’d be on the pro-EU, Pro-immigration side. Also quite low on property ownership. And average age. I don't think Britain is deep in a culture war, but there are some quite deep cultural divisions and there are people (mainly I think in the media, mainstream and digital) who would like to promote culture wars. It is incredibly dangerous IMO.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 6:31:30 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 11, 2018 6:31:30 GMT
These are the categories: Grade Social class Chief income earner's occupation Frequency in 2008[3] A upper middle class Higher managerial, administrative or professional 4% B middle class Intermediate managerial, administrative or professional 23% C1 lower middle class Supervisory or clerical and junior managerial, administrative or professional 29% C2 skilled working class Skilled manual workers 21% D working class Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers 15% E non working Casual or lowest grade workers, pensioners, and others who depend on the welfare state for their income 8% Non working people (ie pensionsers) get roped in E - Non Working. More retired folk, more in category E, despite plenty of pensioners being very well off. It does seem a system unfit to describe modern society. What about retired people who aren’t yet pensioners? "E - non-working" I imagine.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 8:19:26 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2018 8:19:26 GMT
These are the categories: Grade Social class Chief income earner's occupation Frequency in 2008[3] A upper middle class Higher managerial, administrative or professional 4% B middle class Intermediate managerial, administrative or professional 23% C1 lower middle class Supervisory or clerical and junior managerial, administrative or professional 29% C2 skilled working class Skilled manual workers 21% D working class Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers 15% E non working Casual or lowest grade workers, pensioners, and others who depend on the welfare state for their income 8% Non working people (ie pensionsers) get roped in E - Non Working. More retired folk, more in category E, despite plenty of pensioners being very well off. It does seem a system unfit to describe modern society. What about retired people who aren’t yet pensioners? So the Queen and Prince Philip are recorded in socio-economic group E. That makes a lot of sense. Sociologists at their best.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 11, 2018 8:21:59 GMT
I thought retired people were classified according to their occupation before their retirement. I did some casual work with the 2011 census and I'm sure I remember this is how we were instructed to enter it if helping people complete their forms
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