South Tyrol regional election 2018

[Georg Ebner]

Is going to happen on October 21st.

2 polls have come out recently: GfK (for SVP) in May, Market now.

GfK/Market party 2013-result

40/39 SVP 45.7
18/16 Freiheitliche/F 17.9 (~FPÖ, for autonomy)
09/04 M5S 2.5 (departure of their leader Köllensperger)
11/11 SüdtirolerFreiheit/SF (right; for independence)
07/07 Greens/Verdi 8.7
06/05 Lega/FI 2.5
02/04 PD 6.7 (so far CoalitionPartner of SVP)
??/02 BürgerUnion/BU 2.1 (Ladins)
---/08 Liste Köllensperger (exLeader M5S)
07/04 others

[Georg Ebner]

TurnOut fell by ~4%, everywhere roughly to the same extent except in the (3/4-Italian) capital Bozen/Bolzano.

[Georg Ebner]

So far mainly WippTal and the capital Bozen are counted (42%), so the Italian share will be declining.
But already clear is, that more Italians (Leifers +3%, Bozen +-0%) and less Ladins&Germans voted.
And that apart from new Italian voters Salvini gained lots of Germans right of SVP. 2013 the right Italian parties (LN, FI, FdI,...) received ~12%, presently it's ~10% more.
Summa summarum the right-of-SVP got and will get ~30%, so what is normal these days in Italy, SwitzerLand and Austria.

[Georg Ebner]

With (only) 1/4 counted SVP would likely have to build a coalition with the LEGA - PD&GREENS would require a fourth party, and TeamKöllensperger (exM5S) was SVP's ArchEnemy during the campaign.

[Georg Ebner]

Bozen is fully counted.
PD lost 10%, LN gained 20% (28%, last time with FI 8%).

[Georg Ebner]

SVP ended above 40% (-4%), TeamKöllensperger at 15%, LN at 11%.

The GREENS managed to get a third seat, making them a possible CoalitionPartner for SVP (15/35).