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Post by finsobruce on Aug 9, 2018 22:51:57 GMT
CORNWALL Newquay Treviglas FORMOSA, Mark Anthony (Conservative) 363 DANIELL, Steven Walter (Liberal Democrat) 306 ROSS, Brod (Labour) 131 A beautiful victory for Mr Formosa. |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 9, 2018 22:57:24 GMT
CORNWALL Newquay Treviglas FORMOSA, Mark Anthony (Conservative) 363 DANIELL, Steven Walter (Liberal Democrat) 306 ROSS, Brod (Labour) 131 Excellent! Thank you Labour. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 9, 2018 23:08:03 GMT
The previous councillor must have had a very strong personal vote. In Cornwall, all politics is local...street local. The Town Council result pretty much sums that up... |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Aug 10, 2018 6:41:02 GMT
CORNWALL Newquay Treviglas FORMOSA, Mark Anthony (Conservative) 363 DANIELL, Steven Walter (Liberal Democrat) 306 ROSS, Brod (Labour) 131 A beautiful victory for Mr Formosa. I thought it might be a Tai. Wan can hope. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 10, 2018 6:41:51 GMT
The previous councillor must have had a very strong personal vote. In Cornwall, all politics is local...street local. There is no such thing as a safe ward in Cornwall. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 10, 2018 7:49:30 GMT
Is this another "school holiday" by-election, where the older, more conservative folk stay at home and vote, while the younger people with families go away and don't bother arranging a postal vote for a mere council poll?
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 10, 2018 9:34:14 GMT
Is this another "school holiday" by-election, where the older, more conservative folk stay at home and vote, while the younger people with families go away and don't bother arranging a postal vote for a mere council poll? As Carlton implies, "vote Labour get Tory". It was ever thus in Cornwall... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 10, 2018 9:53:00 GMT
Though given that Mr Ross polled better than many here were predicting, it does make me wonder how we could have performed with a local candidate!
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 10, 2018 11:29:39 GMT
Though given that Mr Ross polled better than many here were predicting, it does make me wonder how we could have performed with a local candidate! Considerably better, I would have thought. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 10, 2018 11:48:09 GMT
Is this another "school holiday" by-election, where the older, more conservative folk stay at home and vote, while the younger people with families go away and don't bother arranging a postal vote for a mere council poll? As Carlton implies, "vote Labour get Tory". It was ever thus in Cornwall... Not at the last General Election - voting Liberal Democrat gave you a Tory in Camborne and Redruth, and Truro and Falmouth. The truth about Cornwall, a place that fascinates me psephologically, is that being known locally matters a great deal, and voters can be very particular about why they are voting for somebody in a particular election. It is noticeable that a candidate who does very well at a Unitary election can do very poorly at a general election, even in their own area. Look at Loic Rich in Truro Tregolls, managed to get 792 votes as an Independent for Truro and Falmouth in 201 5(having previously stood for Mebyon Kernow in 2010), but stormed to 1116 votes in his own Division in 2017. There are plenty of examples of seeming popular local politicians doing badly at General Elections. Also, you have cases of a Unitary Council party politician going Independent, and doing remarkably better than before. Cornwall is different, simple as that. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 10, 2018 17:29:35 GMT
Cornwall, Newquay Treviglas - Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2016 B | since 2013 | | Conservative | 363 | 45.4% | +13.6% | +20.4% | +18.4% | Liberal Democrat | 306 | 38.2% | -30.0% | -19.5% | +13.4% | Labour | 131 | 16.4% | from nowhere | +6.0% | -1.4% | Independent |
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| -30.3% | Total votes | 800 |
| 72% | 95% | 91% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 22% since 2017 and 20% since 2016 by-election Council now 47 Conservative, 35 Liberal Democrat, 31 Independent Group, 4 Labour, 4 Mebyon Kernow, 1 non Group Independent, 1 Vacant
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 10, 2018 18:15:21 GMT
As Carlton implies, "vote Labour get Tory". It was ever thus in Cornwall... Not at the last General Election - voting Liberal Democrat gave you a Tory in Camborne and Redruth, and Truro and Falmouth. The truth about Cornwall, a place that fascinates me psephologically, is that being known locally matters a great deal, and voters can be very particular about why they are voting for somebody in a particular election. It is noticeable that a candidate who does very well at a Unitary election can do very poorly at a general election, even in their own area. Look at Loic Rich in Truro Tregolls, managed to get 792 votes as an Independent for Truro and Falmouth in 201 5(having previously stood for Mebyon Kernow in 2010), but stormed to 1116 votes in his own Division in 2017. There are plenty of examples of seeming popular local politicians doing badly at General Elections. Also, you have cases of a Unitary Council party politician going Independent, and doing remarkably better than before. Cornwall is different, simple as that. At the general election more people than ever before voted Labour and they got 6 Tory MPs. The closest was St. Ives where Labour votes went up and Andrew George lost by a hairs breadth. When the Lib Dem vote goes down, half of it votes Tory. That is not an ideological position, just a fact of life. It is why the Lib Dems will always have a better chance of winning Tory seats in places like the SW than Labour. In a fantastic year for Labour combined with a low Tory vote they might win 3 or 4, but never the number the Lib Dems have held |
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Post by thirdchill on Aug 10, 2018 18:33:19 GMT
Though given that Mr Ross polled better than many here were predicting, it does make me wonder how we could have performed with a local candidate! Alston Moor in Cumbria I presume is the sort of campaign that springs to mind. Coming from well behind to win the ward at district and county level. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 10, 2018 18:47:47 GMT
Not at the last General Election - voting Liberal Democrat gave you a Tory in Camborne and Redruth, and Truro and Falmouth. The truth about Cornwall, a place that fascinates me psephologically, is that being known locally matters a great deal, and voters can be very particular about why they are voting for somebody in a particular election. It is noticeable that a candidate who does very well at a Unitary election can do very poorly at a general election, even in their own area. Look at Loic Rich in Truro Tregolls, managed to get 792 votes as an Independent for Truro and Falmouth in 201 5(having previously stood for Mebyon Kernow in 2010), but stormed to 1116 votes in his own Division in 2017. There are plenty of examples of seeming popular local politicians doing badly at General Elections. Also, you have cases of a Unitary Council party politician going Independent, and doing remarkably better than before. Cornwall is different, simple as that. At the general election more people than ever before voted Labour and they got 6 Tory MPs. The closest was St. Ives where Labour votes went up and Andrew George lost by a hairs breadth. When the Lib Dem vote goes down, half of it votes Tory. That is not an ideological position, just a fact of life. It is why the Lib Dems will always have a better chance of winning Tory seats in places like the SW than Labour. In a fantastic year for Labour combined with a low Tory vote they might win 3 or 4, but never the number the Lib Dems have held The Lib Dem vote in St Ives went up by more than either the Labour vote or the Tory vote btw. Presumably taking the lion's share of the UKIP vote and/or the Green vote too? But who knows. You still didn't win. There does seem to be a change in voting patterns in certain places. In Cornwall both the Tories and Labour did relatively well in 2017. You may have to get used to this. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,729
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 10, 2018 20:21:04 GMT
Not at the last General Election - voting Liberal Democrat gave you a Tory in Camborne and Redruth, and Truro and Falmouth. The truth about Cornwall, a place that fascinates me psephologically, is that being known locally matters a great deal, and voters can be very particular about why they are voting for somebody in a particular election. It is noticeable that a candidate who does very well at a Unitary election can do very poorly at a general election, even in their own area. Look at Loic Rich in Truro Tregolls, managed to get 792 votes as an Independent for Truro and Falmouth in 201 5(having previously stood for Mebyon Kernow in 2010), but stormed to 1116 votes in his own Division in 2017. There are plenty of examples of seeming popular local politicians doing badly at General Elections. Also, you have cases of a Unitary Council party politician going Independent, and doing remarkably better than before. Cornwall is different, simple as that. At the general election more people than ever before voted Labour and they got 6 Tory MPs. The closest was St. Ives where Labour votes went up and Andrew George lost by a hairs breadth. When the Lib Dem vote goes down, half of it votes Tory. That is not an ideological position, just a fact of life. It is why the Lib Dems will always have a better chance of winning Tory seats in places like the SW than Labour. In a fantastic year for Labour combined with a low Tory vote they might win 3 or 4, but never the number the Lib Dems have held Actually, a local media's recommendation to vote Liberal Democrat in Truro and Falmouth to stop the Tories probably explains why the Lib Dems vote hardly fell there and might have saved Sarah Newton; it would certainly have been much closer. In St. Ives, Labour campaigned in a very low-key way so as to assist Andrew George, but people will vote as they want. The real problem for the Lib Dems came in 2015, when their vote collapsed as voting Liberal Democrat got a Conservative government. That cracked the consensus in Cornwall, which mostly continued in 2017. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 11, 2018 7:52:32 GMT
At the general election more people than ever before voted Labour and they got 6 Tory MPs. The closest was St. Ives where Labour votes went up and Andrew George lost by a hairs breadth. When the Lib Dem vote goes down, half of it votes Tory. That is not an ideological position, just a fact of life. It is why the Lib Dems will always have a better chance of winning Tory seats in places like the SW than Labour. In a fantastic year for Labour combined with a low Tory vote they might win 3 or 4, but never the number the Lib Dems have held Actually, a local media's recommendation to vote Liberal Democrat in Truro and Falmouth to stop the Tories probably explains why the Lib Dems vote hardly fell there and might have saved Sarah Newton; it would certainly have been much closer. In St. Ives, Labour campaigned in a very low-key way so as to assist Andrew George, but people will vote as they want. The real problem for the Lib Dems came in 2015, when their vote collapsed as voting Liberal Democrat got a Conservative government. That cracked the consensus in Cornwall, which mostly continued in 2017. Of course yes, the problem for the Lib Dems came in 2015, and also for the country since it was the collapse of the Lib Dem vote in the SW and the fact that the Lib Dem vote in Lab-Con marginals like Pudsey went as much to the Tories as to Labour, which delivered the Tories their majority. I tried voting Labour for the only time in my life in Pudsey in 2015... In retrospect that was probably the most disastrous result for the UK in living memory.. (my opinion as a Remainer, of course!). Local campaigns really don't make much difference to the Labour vote. You can see that if you compare Colne Valley (very intense campaign, +13%) with Huddersfield (virtually no campaign, +16%; In fact there was more Lib Dem than Labour campaign in Huddersfield, with no impact whatsoever), although the campaign in Colne Valley was probably needed to win the seat. It was the national perception of a two horse race that denied the Lib Dems a few seats like St Ives and cost them a load of deposits. In Truro and Falmouth the message from local media of "Labour can't win here" will have been just as powerful as "vote Lib Dem to beat the Tories" and will have reassured the blue Lib Dems. Next time if the Lib Dem vote is squeezed there as it has been in Camborne and Redruth, half of it will go Tory, I predict... |
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