Eastleigh - no 1994 by-election

[swanarcadian]

This is small beer compared to other topics being discussed here, but supposing there had been no by-election in Eastleigh in the 1992-1997 Parliament.  It has been suggested that Labour would have won in 1997, but I'm not so sure.  Does anyone have the 1992 notional result to hand?

[The Bishop]

Labour would have done amazingly to win in 1997 (even by that year's standards) but could well have made it a highly competitive marginal.

[Deleted]

Something like Colchester possibly?

It would need to be a fairly even split for Labour to take it.

[LDCaerdydd]

Eastleigh is I believe the only seat won by the Liberal Democrats in a by-election which was successfully transferred onto another Lib Dem candidate (twice in fact).

David Steel's old seat would count for the Liberals as would Brecon and Radnorshire with the blip of 1992-1997.

Quite incredible when you think of the headlines generated by Lib Dem by-election wins in the 1990s and early 2000s, that they were just one off events that soon fade away.

[Pete Whitehead]

Also Rochdale was passed on successfully in 1992 (and won again subsequently by another candidate)

[Deleted]

Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles (won by the Liberals in a by-election in 1965) was passed on if you consider its successor seats of Roxburgh & Berwickshire and Ettrick, Tweeddale & Lauderdale were won by the Liberals from 1983 to their abolition in 2005,

When David Steel stood down in 1997, the Lib Dems narrowly held his Ettrick, Tweeddale & Lauderdale seat by 1,400 votes over Labour. The victor would go on to represent Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk until falling to 3rd in 2015 when the SNP took the seat by 300 votes over the Conservatives. 

In fact, Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles and its successor seats were held by the Liberals for nearly 50 years. They actually lost their deposit in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk in 2017 which was a shock.

[mondialito]

If Stephen Milligan doesn't die, is it safe to assume he would be derailed by scandal some other time?

[LDCaerdydd]

Jul 16, 2018 12:31:54 GMT mondialito said:

If Stephen Milligan doesn't die, is it safe to assume he would be derailed by scandal some other time?

Don't know about Stephen Milligan but if the points swapping episode never made the light of day Chris Huhne would have been brought down in a scandal whether he were the MP for Eastleigh or another seat.

[swanarcadian]

As johnloony posted in another thread, the notional result in 1992 was

Con 28620 50.86

LD 16708 29.69

Lab 10947 19.45

Looks like a tall order for Labour to me, even in the circumstances of 1997.

[therealriga]

Jul 16, 2018 10:42:20 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Eastleigh is I believe the only seat won by the Liberal Democrats in a by-election which was successfully transferred onto another Lib Dem candidate (twice in fact).

David Steel's old seat would count for the Liberals as would Brecon and Radnorshire with the blip of 1992-1997.

Quite incredible when you think of the headlines generated by Lib Dem by-election wins in the 1990s and early 2000s, that they were just one off events that soon fade away.

There are also two similar situations from 1991 by-elections, though they weren't passed on immediately. The win in Eastbourne was overturned in 1992 but led to a sustained LibDem presence in the seat which has them holding it today. Kincardine & Deeside was also lost in 1992, but the successor seat of W.Aberdeenshire was regained by a different candidate in 1997. 

[Deleted]

Eastbourne is interesting.

I'm amazed the seat wasn't gained by the LDs in 1997 or 2001.

There are only 2 seats that are LD now that were won by the Conservatives in 1997/2001 - Eastbourne and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

[greenhert]

Jul 17, 2018 19:41:15 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Eastbourne is interesting.

I'm amazed the seat wasn't gained by the LDs in 1997 or 2001.

There are only 2 seats that are LD now that were won by the Conservatives in 1997/2001 - Eastbourne and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

In both cases the sitting Liberal Democrat MP built up a very strong personal vote before being elected, although in each case the Liberals/Liberal Democrats were a clear second for a long time before winning the seat (since 1964 in Eastbourne's case and since 1959 in Westmorland/Westmorland & Lonsdale's case).

[greenhert]

There are so many interesting what-if scenarios relating to specific constituencies (by-elections and otherwise), as it happens.

Some good examples include:

1. Could Islington North have been won by the SDP if Michael O'Halloran had not insisted on standing as an Independent after losing the selection contest to John Grant, or was (as I suspect) the core Labour vote in Islington North too strong for Jeremy Corbyn to lose it even in 1983 and without a split SDP vote?
2. What if the Greens had won Bristol West and/or Norwich South in 2015 after all?
3. If the SDP had fielded a better candidate in the Darlington by-election who would have withstood the scrutiny from Vincent Hanna (and therefore finished better than third), what consequences would this have had just before the June 1983 general election?
4. What if Harold Wilson had lost Huyton at any point? From 1950 to 1964 the seat was marginal.
5. Relating to the city I live in, what if Sharon Atkin had not been sacked as candidate for Nottingham East in 1987 (see Butler & Kavanagh, 1987 general election) and therefore in all likelihood ensured that there would have been two black British female MPs joining the 1987 Parliament instead of one?

[Deleted]

Jul 19, 2018 22:16:27 GMT greenhert said:

There are so many interesting what-if scenarios relating to specific constituencies (by-elections and otherwise), as it happens.

Some good examples include:

1. Could Islington North have been won by the SDP if Michael O'Halloran had not insisted on standing as an Independent after losing the selection contest to John Grant, or was (as I suspect) the core Labour vote in Islington North too strong for Jeremy Corbyn to lose it even in 1983 and without a split SDP vote?
2. What if the Greens had won Bristol West and/or Norwich South in 2015 after all?
3. If the SDP had fielded a better candidate in the Darlington by-election who would have withstood the scrutiny from Vincent Hanna (and therefore finished better than third), what consequences would this have had just before the June 1983 general election?
4. What if Harold Wilson had lost Huyton at any point? From 1950 to 1964 the seat was marginal.
5. Relating to the city I live in, what if Sharon Atkin had not been sacked as candidate for Nottingham East in 1987 (see Butler & Kavanagh, 1987 general election) and therefore in all likelihood ensured that there would have been two black British female MPs joining the 1987 Parliament instead of one?

I don’t believe the SDP could’ve won Islington North. They couldn’t even win Islington South & Finsbury.