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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2018 23:30:33 GMT
Labour hold all 3 un Brent
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 21, 2018 23:33:08 GMT
That's a remarkably static Conservative vote share in a ward where UKIP were the incumbents and are now out of the game. You say static, I would have thought dynamic equilibrium is the best way of understanding what is going on there. Yes, I imagine the Independent vote share may be important. Nevertheless, over the last year it has been common to see the Conservative vote share go up to some extent where the UKIP vote disappears - I'm surprised the local Conservatives weren't able to do a bit better here. (Haven't read Andrew's previews this week, so apologies if the answer is clearly given there.) |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2018 23:33:53 GMT
Willesden Green (Brent) result:
LAB: 67.2% (+24.2)
GRN: 11.5% (-1.7)
CON: 11.2% (+4.2)
LDEM: 10.1% (-5.7)
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 22, 2018 0:36:03 GMT
Brent full result
Fleur Donnelly-Jackson Labour 1683 23.58%
Elliot George Chappell Labour 1679 23.53%
Tom Miller Labour 1618 22.67%
Shaka Lish Green Party 289 4.05%
Harry Goodwill Conservative 280 3.92%
Peter Richard Murry Green Party 256 3.59%
Felicity Jane Dunn Liberal Democrats 254 3.56%
William Kent Relton Green Party 250 3.50%
Shahin Chowdhury Conservative 237 3.32%
Ali Mahmoud Al Jawad Conservative 218 3.05%
Ulla Ursula Thiessen Liberal Democrats 189 2.65%
Christopher Charles Wheatley Liberal Democrats 184 2.58%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 22, 2018 6:20:21 GMT
What swing? The Conservatives didn't win 100% of the vote in 2015 - the ward was uncontested |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 22, 2018 7:28:29 GMT
That's a remarkably static Conservative vote share in a ward where UKIP were the incumbents and are now out of the game. You say static, I would have thought dynamic equilibrium is the best way of understanding what is going on there. I think the Liberal Democrat’s gained another seat in Minehead about 6 months ago. I don’t know if there is some disquiet about the merger with Taunton Deane. I can imagine there might be, although WSDC is so small that it is financially unsustainable. West Somerset is a very ‘local’ place and any threat of a takeover by Taunton could be a threat. Ian Liddell- Granger MP for Bridgwater and West Somerset( although in practice, he acts as the MP for West Somerset) is publically anti Taunton and anti the move. Some people MIGHT listen to him. Only a by election, but if there is a backlash to a takeover in West Somerset, then Conservative control of the new Somerset West and Taunton council is no foregone conclusion. |
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Post by lbarnes on Jun 22, 2018 8:11:08 GMT
Labour Gain for UKIP in Pitsea From UKIP? 😉 No correction needed. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 22, 2018 9:04:25 GMT
So factually and electorally wrong. OK, as you wish. |
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k9
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Post by k9 on Jun 22, 2018 9:22:21 GMT
The West Somerset result moves the Liberal Democrats into the Official Opposition to the Conservative group position.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2018 10:28:31 GMT
What a very strange comment. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2018 10:50:03 GMT
You say static, I would have thought dynamic equilibrium is the best way of understanding what is going on there. I don’t know if there is some disquiet about the merger with Taunton Deane. I can imagine there might be, although WSDC is so small that it is financially unsustainable. West Somerset is a very ‘local’ place and any threat of a takeover by Taunton could be a threat. Ian Liddell- Granger MP for Bridgwater and West Somerset( although in practice, he acts as the MP for West Somerset) is publically anti Taunton and anti the move. Some people MIGHT listen to him. Only a by election, but if there is a backlash to a takeover in West Somerset, then Conservative control of the new Somerset West and Taunton council is no foregone conclusion. Minehead South in Feb, but a bit before that wasn't there also Dunster & Timberscombe? The Cons did manage to hold Minehead North within that period though - I think that makes 4 by-elections in West Somerset within the last year and LDs have taken 3 of them? I suspect there is more at issue here than just the Taunton takeover, though it may have contributed. correction: Having looked it up, Dunster & Timberscombe was longer ago than I thought (March '17) - general point still stands though |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 22, 2018 10:59:38 GMT
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE: Kempshott
Anne Court (Con) 884
Alex Lee (Lab) 475
Stavroulla O’Doherty (LD) 105
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Post by justin124 on Jun 22, 2018 11:11:45 GMT
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE: Kempshott Anne Court (Con) 884 Alex Lee (Lab) 475 Stavroulla O’Doherty (LD) 105 That looks like quite a strong Labour performance. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2018 11:23:31 GMT
Similar result to the March byelection I think.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 22, 2018 11:25:57 GMT
I think the Liberal Democrat’s gained another seat in Minehead about 6 months ago. I don’t know if there is some disquiet about the merger with Taunton Deane. I can imagine there might be, although WSDC is so small that it is financially unsustainable. West Somerset is a very ‘local’ place and any threat of a takeover by Taunton could be a threat. Ian Liddell- Granger MP for Bridgwater and West Somerset( although in practice, he acts as the MP for West Somerset) is publically anti Taunton and anti the move. Some people MIGHT listen to him. Only a by election, but if there is a backlash to a takeover in West Somerset, then Conservative control of the new Somerset West and Taunton council is no foregone conclusion. Minehead South in Feb, but a bit before that wasn't there also Dunster & Timberscombe? The Cons did manage to hold Minehead North within that period though - I think that makes 4 by-elections in West Somerset within the last year and LDs have taken 3 of them? I suspect there is more at issue here than just the Taunton takeover, though it may have contributed. correction: Having looked it up, Dunster & Timberscombe was longer ago than I thought (March '17) - general point still stands though Although interestingly the County Council results held during that period were better for the Conservatives in West Somerset, and no more than Ok for the Lib Dem’s. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 22, 2018 11:28:19 GMT
Similar result to the March byelection I think. Yes. The march by election was Con 59%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 10%. This one is Con 60%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 8% |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2018 11:28:38 GMT
Quite a strong Tory one too, given the candidate caused the by-election by non-attendance over 6 months, whatever the extenuating circumstances of that. I wonder whether the circumstances became an issue? Better turnout than the last by-election, though admittedly that was March - at least the weather was better this time, presumably?
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2018 14:14:43 GMT
Minehead South in Feb, but a bit before that wasn't there also Dunster & Timberscombe? The Cons did manage to hold Minehead North within that period though - I think that makes 4 by-elections in West Somerset within the last year and LDs have taken 3 of them? I suspect there is more at issue here than just the Taunton takeover, though it may have contributed. correction: Having looked it up, Dunster & Timberscombe was longer ago than I thought (March '17) - general point still stands though Although interestingly the County Council results held during that period were better for the Conservatives in West Somerset, and no more than Ok for the Lib Dem’s. Rather different game though, isn't it? If you have a tiny team of committed activists you can pull off spectacular gains in local wards at district level, especially in by-elections. Achieving the same at county level all-outs is another matter, and may take longer to get there. Not saying it couldn't be done, mind, in another few years , a few more recruits, a bit more confidence... |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 22, 2018 14:39:03 GMT
Although interestingly the County Council results held during that period were better for the Conservatives in West Somerset, and no more than Ok for the Lib Dem’s. Rather different game though, isn't it? If you have a tiny team of committed activists you can pull off spectacular gains in local wards at district level, especially in by-elections. Achieving the same at county level all-outs is another matter, and may take longer to get there. Not saying it couldn't be done, mind, in another few years , a few more recruits, a bit more confidence... Absolutely. And the Cc elections in Somerset were at exactly the right time for the Conservatives. Minehead division has a history of voting out the sitting councillor in the County Elections 2001 Con 2005 LD 2009 Con 2013 UKIP 2017 Con The current County Councillor for Minehead has become the Deputy Leader of the CC one year after being first elected. Although Alcombe is in the pretty safe Con Dunster division. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 22, 2018 15:09:46 GMT
Oxhey (Watford) result: LDEM: 55.3% (-3.5) CON: 28.1% (+4.7) LAB: 16.6% (-1.2) Liberal Democrat HOLD. Lib Dem collapse! |
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