Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2018 11:22:05 GMT
Suppose Rifkind decides to stand down in 2015 before he does in our timeline. Boris Johnson applies for Kensington and goes up against Shaun Bailey for the final selection, winning fairly comfortably and becoming MP for Kensington in 2015.
He still campaigns for Brexit and loses the seat in 2017. Implications?
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Post by BossMan on Jun 5, 2018 12:02:36 GMT
Boris wouldn't have lost Kensington.
He'd be very shocked at his majority, but he wouldn't have lost.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2018 12:48:51 GMT
Boris wouldn't have lost Kensington. He'd be very shocked at his majority, but he wouldn't have lost. Similar majority to the 1988 by-election then? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 5, 2018 17:38:46 GMT
When did the Uxbridge and South Ruislip selection take place?
If Sir Malcolm Rifkind had announced his retirement before Sir John Randall, I somehow suspect Boris Johnson would have been the favourite for the selection for Kensington.
As just about any other Conservative candidate would have held Kensington, i would say a Johnson majority of 1,000 in 2017
Would have spared the House of Commons both Borwick and Dent-Coad.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jun 5, 2018 18:27:59 GMT
How would this affect the result in Uxbridge with a lower profile Tory candidate.
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Jun 5, 2018 18:37:19 GMT
How would this affect the result in Uxbridge with a lower profile Tory candidate. The Tories should still hold it, but probably with a smaller majority (say about 3,000?). |
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Post by swanarcadian on Jun 5, 2018 21:30:02 GMT
Of course, having avoided the hurdle of a possible defeat in 2017, he would - I'm sorry to say - be at even greater risk by 2022 not just in Kensington but in Uxbridge and South Ruislip as well due to continuing adverse demographic changes. The recent local election results in London do indicate that Conservative prospects perhaps aren't as bleak as previously thought, however.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 5, 2018 21:42:50 GMT
How would this affect the result in Uxbridge with a lower profile Tory candidate. The Tories should still hold it, but probably with a smaller majority (say about 3,000?). Depends who it was. John Randall was about as local and Uxbridge as it came ( and was a factor in a surprisingly comfortable by election hold in 1997) I think he might have a got a majority similar to Boris in 2017. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jun 9, 2018 14:53:37 GMT
The Tories should still hold it, but probably with a smaller majority (say about 3,000?). Depends who it was. John Randall was about as local and Uxbridge as it came ( and was a factor in a surprisingly comfortable by election hold in 1997) I think he might have a got a majority similar to Boris in 2017.
Randall should've done a bit better than Bojo, what with him actually being a decent constituency MP and all that.
I'm not sure Boris is worth anything other than name recognition these days - he surely puts off as many voters as he attracts and is more or less neutral.
He'd surely have held Kensington, but only by virtue of being better than Borwick.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 7:21:31 GMT
Depends who it was. John Randall was about as local and Uxbridge as it came ( and was a factor in a surprisingly comfortable by election hold in 1997) I think he might have a got a majority similar to Boris in 2017.
Randall should've done a bit better than Bojo, what with him actually being a decent constituency MP and all that.
I'm not sure Boris is worth anything other than name recognition these days - he surely puts off as many voters as he attracts and is more or less neutral.
He'd surely have held Kensington, but only by virtue of being better than Borwick.
Not by much. The swing wasn’t wildly different to Battersea, Chelsea or City of London. |
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Post by tamar on Jul 26, 2023 15:36:46 GMT
Now that Johnson's political career is most likely over, it might be fun to revisit this? I take the point that he'd have been much less likely to actually lose the seat than Victoria Borwick turned out to be, but it's still interesting to imagine where UK politics could have gone if Johnson had been suddenly removed from Parliament in 2017 and couldn't swoop in in 2019.
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Post by jakegb on Jul 27, 2023 9:58:53 GMT
Now that Johnson's political career is most likely over, it might be fun to revisit this? I take the point that he'd have been much less likely to actually lose the seat than Victoria Borwick turned out to be, but it's still interesting to imagine where UK politics could have gone if Johnson had been suddenly removed from Parliament in 2017 and couldn't swoop in in 2019. A very interesting one to imagine ... I think May's plight would have mirrored reality, with her resignation following the disastrous European election. The leadership election would still have been fractious, with the members probably electing Gove over Hunt (not by much). I don't think there would have been prorogation in parliament; however, the gridlock would still bring about a December election (with a much narrower Conservative majority, I reckon). Possibly Johnson re-standing in a safe shire seat ... |
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Post by tamar on Jul 27, 2023 14:38:45 GMT
Now that Johnson's political career is most likely over, it might be fun to revisit this? I take the point that he'd have been much less likely to actually lose the seat than Victoria Borwick turned out to be, but it's still interesting to imagine where UK politics could have gone if Johnson had been suddenly removed from Parliament in 2017 and couldn't swoop in in 2019. A very interesting one to imagine ... I think May's plight would have mirrored reality, with her resignation following the disastrous European election. The leadership election would still have been fractious, with the members probably electing Gove over Hunt (not by much). I don't think there would have been prorogation in parliament; however, the gridlock would still bring about a December election (with a much narrower Conservative majority, I reckon). Possibly Johnson re-standing in a safe shire seat ... Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm struggling to see Gove winning... I think, if the deadlock did mirror reality then the Tory party might be looking for a Brexiter with more panache. Javid or Raab would maybe benefit. Without Johnson as the obvious frontrunner some other people who didn't go for it in our timeline might try, say David Davis (who, if he still resigns over Chequers or something like it, might become the man on horseback) or ever ambitious people like Gavin Williamson or Penny Mordaunt. Or what about the other parties? Would another Tory leader with a more unsettled party find it harder to subdue Farage and the Brexit Party? Could they maybe win Peterborough and cause even more problems for Corbyn? |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 27, 2023 15:10:20 GMT
A very interesting one to imagine ... I think May's plight would have mirrored reality, with her resignation following the disastrous European election. The leadership election would still have been fractious, with the members probably electing Gove over Hunt (not by much). I don't think there would have been prorogation in parliament; however, the gridlock would still bring about a December election (with a much narrower Conservative majority, I reckon). Possibly Johnson re-standing in a safe shire seat ... Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm struggling to see Gove winning... I think, if the deadlock did mirror reality then the Tory party might be looking for a Brexiter with more panache. Javid or Raab would maybe benefit. Without Johnson as the obvious frontrunner some other people who didn't go for it in our timeline might try, say David Davis (who, if he still resigns over Chequers or something like it, might become the man on horseback) or ever ambitious people like Gavin Williamson or Penny Mordaunt. Or what about the other parties? Would another Tory leader with a more unsettled party find it harder to subdue Farage and the Brexit Party? Could they maybe win Peterborough and cause even more problems for Corbyn?
Raab has panache?!? Why did nobody tell us?
The only way he'd win would be in a straight fight with Gove, and then only because Gove had already made lots of enemies and burned several bridges.
I don't think Boris would've ever lost Kensington, but if he had done, I suspect he'd have lost interest and wandered off to other things. He always wanted to be seen as 'a winner', and losing Kensington would've tainted that reputation, perhaps irrepairably.
So a 2019 leadership election without Boris would've been wide open, with a large number of candidates - which was, of course, the case anyway. I couldn't see Hunt winning in that climate. Javid would've had a decent chance. Someone like Leadsome or McVey might've come through if the hardline Brexiteers got behind a single candidate. We may have even ended up with some batshit fringe candidate standing and unexpectedly winning - after all this happened with Corbyn - and ended up with Prime Minister Cash, Leigh or Redwood. Which would've been amusing.
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Post by tamar on Jul 27, 2023 17:15:13 GMT
Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm struggling to see Gove winning... I think, if the deadlock did mirror reality then the Tory party might be looking for a Brexiter with more panache. Javid or Raab would maybe benefit. Without Johnson as the obvious frontrunner some other people who didn't go for it in our timeline might try, say David Davis (who, if he still resigns over Chequers or something like it, might become the man on horseback) or ever ambitious people like Gavin Williamson or Penny Mordaunt. Or what about the other parties? Would another Tory leader with a more unsettled party find it harder to subdue Farage and the Brexit Party? Could they maybe win Peterborough and cause even more problems for Corbyn?
Raab has panache?!? Why did nobody tell us? Well, he's a prick. Enough politicians mistake that for panache  |
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weld
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Post by weld on Sept 1, 2023 4:30:50 GMT
What about Boris losing in 2017 (let’s say by 1 vote) and Hunt succeeds Theresa May? Hunt wins a narrow majority? Emma Dent Coad is re-elected as the Greens don’t stand in Kensington and Gyimah stands elsewhere. I’m assuming Emma can’t stand for Kensington & Bayswater and is considering an independent run as she is in our timeline.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 1, 2023 9:30:46 GMT
Though in reality she likely keeps the whip in that situation despite public grumblings, unless she is actually suspended (not impossible given her track record tbh)
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