Future Scottish 'Heartlands'

[Deleted]

With the face of Scottish politics (and elections) gradually changing, it doesn't seem if the parties have clear heartlands anymore. I'd be interested to hear your takes on this. 

These points are already well known.

When thinking about SNP heartlands, it is important to note that the SNP win large numbers of voters across Scotland and tend to come first or second in nearly all Scottish Parliament constituencies. With the growth of the Conservatives and decline for Labour, they have however seen limited growth in North East Scotland and parts of Lothian, compared to better results in Central Scotland and Glasgow.

Labour seem to do well in constituencies, not because they like Labour and its politicians strongly (except perhaps in Edinburgh) but more where they have popular incumbents (Murray, Gray, Baillie), or have an aversion to critical pieces SNP policy (such as in East Lothian.) The Conservatives are growing hugely in the South, Central and Northeastern parts of Scotland.

What is the reasoning for all this, in your view?

[robbienicoll]

Pretty much the independence referendum in short. Areas where you have high Yes votes (Glenrothes, Kilmarnock, Dundee) tend to be where the SNP do best, Conservatives do best in the areas with high No votes (Borders, Perth, East Renfrewshire). Moray and Banff and Buchan are the outliers as they had the highest Brexit votes. For Labour you have more of a class divide where areas of higher deprivation (Glasgow NE, Coatbridge, Rutherglen) will break for them, probably to do with Corbyn effect, disenfranchisement with the SNP, etc. For the same reasons, in more affluent areas (Aberdeen South, Stirling, Ayr) their vote got squeezed to the Conservatives.

How this will look in the future is effectively a choice as to whether the Conservatives break to Labour or the SNP in working-class Central Belt communities where they have little chance of winning outside of a landslide year. 

[Deleted]

The areas where the Tories were strong before the 1974 elections.

Aberdeenshire, Angus, Argyllshire, North Ayrshire, Perthshire, the Borders (though Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles was a Liberal area from 1965 to 2015, I don't see them coming back there for the moment).

Unsure about Edinburgh for the Tories, I don't think Edinburgh South West would necessarily be Tory-held if it were in England.

Inverness will be interesting too going forward as well.

[beastofbedfordshire]

I believe that one of Tory/labour/snp will get squeezed down to a few seats at Westminster level. Used to think it would be labour but now not so sure.

[Deleted]

May 26, 2018 16:17:03 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

I believe that one of Tory/labour/snp will get squeezed down to a few seats at Westminster level. Used to think it would be labour but now not so sure.

Labour are in a more precarious position than the Tories on that front. 

A lot of Tory seats like Aberdeenshire West and Berwickshire & Roxburgh look pretty safe for the blues for the foreseeable future. I think Argyll & Bute will go the same way as Gordon with the LD vote falling back and the Tories taking it. 

Stirling could be vulnerable but how much would a Labour advance hit the SNP?

I'd expect Perth & North Perthshire to flip in a GE too.

[Deleted]

May 26, 2018 16:26:59 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

May 26, 2018 16:17:03 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

 I think Argyll & Bute will go the same way as Gordon with the LD vote falling back and the Tories taking it. 

Stirling could be vulnerable but how much would a Labour advance hit the SNP?

Considering how Alan Reid did in its Scottish Parliament Election and the progress since, that looks to be quite likely. If he doesn't stand again the Lib Dems are most likely finished in A and B, the seat will probably become more like Moray. It could be argued that if it wasn't for the strong base in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that would finish up similarly, especially given the stronger leave tilt of the seat.

The Tories also did surprisingly poorly in Stirling last time round for a variety of reasons. To me even if there was no Labour advance it is the most likely SNP gain, and if there was, I suspect that advance would manifest itself more in seats like Glasgow South or Airdrie and Shotts.

[Deleted]

Jul 4, 2018 17:10:11 GMT @beesley said:

May 26, 2018 16:26:59 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

 I think Argyll & Bute will go the same way as Gordon with the LD vote falling back and the Tories taking it. 

Stirling could be vulnerable but how much would a Labour advance hit the SNP?

Considering how Alan Reid did in its Scottish Parliament Election and the progress since, that looks to be quite likely. If he doesn't stand again the Lib Dems are most likely finished in A and B, the seat will probably become more like Moray. It could be argued that if it wasn't for the strong base in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that would finish up similarly, especially given the stronger leave tilt of the seat.

The Tories also did surprisingly poorly in Stirling last time round for a variety of reasons. To me even if there was no Labour advance it is the most likely SNP gain, and if there was, I suspect that advance would manifest itself more in seats like Glasgow South or Airdrie and Shotts.

I think the Lib Dems would have fallen into third in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross had anyone other than Jamie Stone been the candidate.

[Deleted]

Jul 4, 2018 17:10:11 GMT @beesley said:

May 26, 2018 16:26:59 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

 I think Argyll & Bute will go the same way as Gordon with the LD vote falling back and the Tories taking it. 

Stirling could be vulnerable but how much would a Labour advance hit the SNP?

Considering how Alan Reid did in its Scottish Parliament Election and the progress since, that looks to be quite likely. If he doesn't stand again the Lib Dems are most likely finished in A and B, the seat will probably become more like Moray. It could be argued that if it wasn't for the strong base in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that would finish up similarly, especially given the stronger leave tilt of the seat.

The Tories also did surprisingly poorly in Stirling last time round for a variety of reasons. To me even if there was no Labour advance it is the most likely SNP gain, and if there was, I suspect that advance would manifest itself more in seats like Glasgow South or Airdrie and Shotts.

Yes. I could see Perth going to the Tories and Stirling being lost next time.