Most famous (or infamous) polls?

[pragmaticidealist]

One that stands out is the YouGov Yes 51, No 49 poll during the IndyRef, which caused a giant collective proverbial in Westminster and had half of Parliament rushing up to Scotland. 

Another is the Labour 42, Conservative 37 poll from ICM during the 1997 general election campaign, the closest thing to a glimmer of hope for the Tories during that campaign. 

Then there's the mythological poll of the late 1980s that had the Social and Liberal Democrats (or whatever they called themselves at that time) represented as an asterisk. 

[Harry Hayfield]

Not a real poll, but on April 1st 1992, the Conservative candidate in Aberavon highlighted a poll in the local newspaper (commissioned by themselves) that asked the question "Which party leader do you think would make the best Prime Minister?" which came back as Major 40%, Kinnock 39% which they reported as "Conservatives to WIN Aberavon"

[No Offence Alan]

There was of course the famous one in the USA when the Readers Digest did a massive poll of its own readers and completed mis-predicted the result of the presidential election.

My favourite "voodoo poll" was when the Sun, I think, polled its own readers on the evils of cannabis and didn't get the result they wanted - their readers were in favour of legalising it.

[pragmaticidealist]

May 23, 2018 21:26:14 GMT No Offence Alan said:

There was of course the famous one in the USA when the Readers Digest did a massive poll of its own readers and completed mis-predicted the result of the presidential election.

My favourite "voodoo poll" was when the Sun, I think, polled its own readers on the evils of cannabis and didn't get the result they wanted - their readers were in favour of legalising it.

I think it was Literary Digest (Reader's Digest is still in existence as far as I know). Up until 1936 their poll actually had a decent reputation, as it had predicted the winner of the several previous elections, hence it was taken seriously. The magazine went out of business not too long after the election.

[greenchristian]

May 23, 2018 21:26:14 GMT No Offence Alan said:

There was of course the famous one in the USA when the Readers Digest did a massive poll of its own readers and completed mis-predicted the result of the presidential election.

I understand that there were several such "polls" before Mr Gallup first demonstrated how you conduct a proper opinion poll.

[beastofbedfordshire]

Not sure who conducted it but there was that Scottish independance referendum poll that had Yes ahead, albeit briefly.

[Chris from Brum]

May 23, 2018 19:03:34 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

Then there's the mythological poll of the late 1980s that had the Social and Liberal Democrats (or whatever they called themselves at that time) represented as an asterisk. 

Some of our more Eeyore-ish activists, lamenting our current poll ratings, are apt to forget those dark days.  We recovered then, and can do so again.

[Deleted]

May 24, 2018 8:59:09 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

Not sure who conducted it but there was that Scottish independance referendum poll that had Yes ahead, albeit briefly.

There was an IPSOS MORI one which really scared me I think, there was also a Panelbase one, but they were always better for the Yes side.

[The Bishop]

May 23, 2018 21:49:22 GMT greenchristian said:

May 23, 2018 21:26:14 GMT No Offence Alan said:

There was of course the famous one in the USA when the Readers Digest did a massive poll of its own readers and completed mis-predicted the result of the presidential election.

I understand that there were several such "polls" before Mr Gallup first demonstrated how you conduct a proper opinion poll.

The one referred to above was in 1936 and predicted a landslide win for Alf "as Maine goes, so goes Vermont" Landon

[pragmaticidealist]

About as infamous as 1936 is the cock-up of 1948, when even Gallup was predicting a clear Dewey victory. However, the final Gallup poll was conducted several weeks prior to election day; had Gallup continued to poll until the end of the campaign then a Truman recovery may have been detected.

[Pete Whitehead]

Surely the one that had the Alliance on over 50% in about 1981 has to be one of the most infamous

[swanarcadian]

May 8, 2013 22:47:44 GMT swanarcadian said:

Highest ever Conservative rating: 56% (May 1968)

Highest ever Conservative lead: 28% (twice, in May 1968 and September 2008)

Lowest ever Conservative rating: 18.5% (January 1995)

Highest Conservative lead whilst in government: 27% (June 1982)

Lowest Conservative rating whilst in opposition: 21% (December 1997)

Highest ever Labour rating: 63% (November 1997)

Highest Labour rating whilst in opposition: 62% (January 1995)

Highest ever Labour lead: 43.5% (January 1995)

Lowest ever Labour rating: 18% (May 2009)

Highest Labour lead whilst in government: 40% (November 1997)

Lowest Labour rating whilst in opposition: 23% (June 1983 and April 2017)

Highest ever Liberal rating (pre 1981): 29.1% (October 1973)

Lowest ever Liberal rating: 1.5% (May 1955)

Highest ever SDP-Liberal Alliance rating: 50.5% (December 1981)

Highest ever SDP-Liberal Alliance lead: 27% (December 1981)

Lowest ever SDP-Liberal Alliance rating (1981-8): 8% (January 1988)

Highest ever Liberal Democrat rating (since 1988): 33% (April 2010)

Highest Liberal Democrat rating whilst in government: 25% (June 2010)

Lowest ever Liberal Democrat rating (since 1988): 3% (November 1989)

Highest ever Green Party rating: 13% (June 1989)

Highest ever UKIP rating: 25% (six times since October 2014)

[hullenedge]

Brecon & Radnor by-election, 1985 the poll that put Labour miles ahead (18%?). Some constituency polls have been howlers.

[Izzyeviel]

I was reading up on polling data for the 1968 Presidential election (like you do), shortly after the Democrat convention, one pollster had Humphrey on 28% and winning only 7 electoral votes for certain.

[pragmaticidealist]

Sept 6, 2018 21:33:11 GMT Izzyeviel said:

I was reading up on polling data for the 1968 Presidential election (like you do), shortly after the Democrat convention, one pollster had Humphrey on 28% and winning only 7 electoral votes for certain.

Which was probably a reasonably accurate reflection of where the election stood at that particular moment. The Democratic Convention of that year was infamous for its toxic nature, to say nothing of the fact that there was an unpopular war going on and that one of the Democratic candidates had been assassinated just a few weeks earlier. 

[Izzyeviel]

Sept 7, 2018 15:48:37 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

Sept 6, 2018 21:33:11 GMT Izzyeviel said:

I was reading up on polling data for the 1968 Presidential election (like you do), shortly after the Democrat convention, one pollster had Humphrey on 28% and winning only 7 electoral votes for certain.

Which was probably a reasonably accurate reflection of where the election stood at that particular moment. The Democratic Convention of that year was infamous for its toxic nature, to say nothing of the fact that there was an unpopular war going on and that one of the Democratic candidates had been assassinated just a few weeks earlier. 

Indeed. It's a minor miracle it was as close as it was.

[pragmaticidealist]

Sept 7, 2018 18:57:12 GMT Izzyeviel said:

Sept 7, 2018 15:48:37 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

Which was probably a reasonably accurate reflection of where the election stood at that particular moment. The Democratic Convention of that year was infamous for its toxic nature, to say nothing of the fact that there was an unpopular war going on and that one of the Democratic candidates had been assassinated just a few weeks earlier. 

Indeed. It's a minor miracle it was as close as it was.

Goldwater's 18% in a June 1964 poll remains, I think, the lowest on record for a major party candidate, at least with Gallup. 

[clyde1998]

May 23, 2018 19:03:34 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

One that stands out is the YouGov Yes 51, No 49 poll during the IndyRef, which caused a giant collective proverbial in Westminster and had half of Parliament rushing up to Scotland. 

I've heard from various people that there was an internal poll for the 'No' campaign (or UK Government) that put 'Yes' at 53% around this time as well - which probably helped with the hysteria, as otherwise you could've argued at the time that the YouGov poll was just an outlier (which looking at the couple of surrounding YouGov polls, it probably was in hindsight).

I remember being quite deflated by that poll, as I felt that it would startle the horses and give enough time for the 'No' campaign to somewhat recover their faltering campaign (IIRC, it was about ten days out from the vote) - which they ended up doing.