cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558 
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Post by cibwr on Oct 17, 2012 6:39:32 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 17, 2012 7:11:46 GMT
With power comes responsibility.
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Post by stepney on Oct 17, 2012 8:00:15 GMT
With power comes responsibility. Except in Belgium. |
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 17, 2012 8:37:24 GMT
With power comes responsibility. Except in Belgium. That may be the case at Federal level but if you are running somewhere like Antwerp the buck stops at you. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2012 16:08:24 GMT
If there's any country where politicians have no power, it would be Belgium - where the party that tops the poll gets 17.4% of the vote in the general election. And people say the Tories have problems.
The pie graph which shows representation in the Chamber of Representatives looks like a fairly evenly cut cake - with very small slices.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Oct 18, 2012 18:34:22 GMT
It is somewhat simplified in Flanders....
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,504
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 18, 2012 20:37:25 GMT
If there's any country where politicians have no power, it would be Belgium - where the party that tops the poll gets 17.4% of the vote in the general election. And people say the Tories have problems. The pie graph which shows representation in the Chamber of Representatives looks like a fairly evenly cut cake - with very small slices. It is probably the most over-governed country in the world, with the most over-complicated constitutional structures. Even bearing that in mind, the US is probably the most over-governed (ironically) because of it's propensity to elect everything (and therefore elected officials constantly overlap areas of responsibility to assert their 'authority'). Switzerland is also over -governed because you can't move for referendums and tiny governments, especially if you have any interests beyond one Canton. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,211
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2018 22:51:38 GMT
The Provincial&LocalElections yesterday/today were naturally a "DressRehearsal" for the GeneralElections next summer.
In Flanders the losses of N-VA were compensated by gains for VB (what rescued deWinter in Antwerpen, for example).
Taking the results of the provinces Mr.DeVatter made this projection for the GE 2019:
43 -10=33 N-VA
27 - 1=26 CD-V
19 - 1=18 OpenVLD
18 - 4=14 SP.A
10+ 7=17 GROEN
6+10=16 VB
1 - 1= 0 UF
As far as i know the federal HomeSecretary of N-VA has pressed quite a lot against immigration, so perhaps they will do once again more for more autonomy or independence.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,211
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2018 2:24:18 GMT
Wallony's provincial parliaments were elected 2012-2018 as follows:
79.52% - 0.30% = 79.22% valid votes
31.77% - 6.61% = 25.16% PS
27.71% - 3.98% = 23.73% MR (+PFF in Liege)
13.17% +3.04% = 16.21% ECOLO
16.44% - 4.13% = 12.31% CDH
02.77% +7.20% = 09.97% PTB (did 2018 not run in W.Brabant)
--------- *4.62% = 04.62% DeFI
--------- *3.07% = 03.07% PP
--------- *1.28% = 01.28% LaDroite (didn't run in Luxembourg)
02.41% - 2.41% = --------- FDF
05.73% - 2.08% = 03.65% others
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Apr 25, 2019 19:56:35 GMT
The Provincial&LocalElections yesterday/today were naturally a "DressRehearsal" for the GeneralElections next summer. In Flanders the losses of N-VA were compensated by gains for VB (what rescued deWinter in Antwerpen, for example). Taking the results of the provinces Mr.DeVatter made this projection for the GE 2019: 43 -10=33 N-VA 27 - 1=26 CD-V 19 - 1=18 OpenVLD 18 - 4=14 SP.A 10+ 7=17 GROEN 6+10=16 VB 1 - 1= 0 UF As far as i know the federal HomeSecretary of N-VA has pressed quite a lot against immigration, so perhaps they will do once again more for more autonomy or independence. Here is a guesstimate of the next Flemish Parliament from my reading of the polls since last year's local elections. With the health warning that i have been cut off from the daily politics in Belgium for years. Most came from watching Belgian telly, which i no longer do, and my second best tack of having a glance at the Kroll du jour cartoons seems to hint at there not being much of a noticeable campaign at all as the obligatory Grand Master of the Legion of Honour and the UK doldrums receive more tenderness.
| 2014 %
| Seats
| 2019
| Δ
| | NVA* | 31.9%
| 43
| 37
| -6
| | CD&V* | 20.5%
| 27
| 22
| -5
| Open Vld*
| 14.2%
| 19
| 17
| -2
| sp.a
| 14.0%
| 18
| 15
| -3
| Groen
| 8.7%
| 10
| 17
| +7
| VB
| 6.0%
| 6
| 12
| +6
| PVDA+
| 1.0%
| 0
| 3
| +3
| UF
| 0.8%
| 1
| 1
| ±0
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* Government (88/124)
Walloon Parliament:
| 2014 %
| Seats
| 2019
| Δ
| | PS | 31.0%
| 30
| 23
| -7
| MR*
| 26.7%
| 25
| 17
| -8
| cdH*
| 15.1%
| 13
| 10
| -3
| Ecolo
| 8.5%
| 4
| 14
| +10
| PTB-GO
| 5.8%
| 2
| 10
| +8
| PP
| 4.9%
| 1
| 1
| ±0
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* Government (38/75)
Parliament of the Brussels-Capital Region, 72 seats in the Francophone electoral college, and 17 in the Dutchophone electoral college:
| 2014 %
| Seats
| 2019
| Δ
| PS* - sp.a* (bright red)
| 23.5+2.3=25.8%
| 21+3=24
| 18+3=21
| -3±0=-3
| MR - Open Vld* (liberal)
| 20.4+3.1=23.5%
| 18+5=23
| 12+4=16
| -6-1=-7
| DéFI* - NVA (panda)
| 13.1+2.0=15.1%
| 12+3=15
| 13+3=16
| +1±0=+1
| cdH* - CD&V* (christian democrat)
| 10.4+1.3=11.7%
| 9+2=11
| 7+1=8
| -2-1=-3
| Ecolo - Groen (variable green)
| 8.9+2.1=11.0%
| 8+3=11
| 16+5=21
| +8+2=+10
| PTB-PVDA-GO - (dark red)
| 3.4%
| 4
| 6
| +2
| - VB (grizzly)
| 0.6%
| 1
| 1
| ±0
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* Government (52/89)
The attentive reader will more or less easily deduce the predicted result of the simultaneously held federal ballot from here. 
Edit (29/04): Kroll's attention has been caught by the looks of it. Here they come: 66.media.tumblr.com/8bb997a993da1c7dffbfb260094d5faf/tumblr_inline_mno253kvoC1qz4rgp.gifAlso, on second thoughts, i may have been a bit harsh on the MR... but will stick to the guess nonetheless. Edit (29/05): The guess for the Walloon chamber came up best with 3 misattributed seats for 6 parties with seats (MR losses overestimated by 3), underestimating the dark red gains in Brussels by 5 seats contributed to 7 for 9 party families, and the VB surge (11 more than in the guess) pushed the errors up to 12 seats for 8 parties in Flanders. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on May 26, 2019 17:48:01 GMT
German Community Parliament result:
VIVANT: 14,82% (+4,20) 3 +1
ECOLO: 12,50% (+2,96) 3 +1
ProDG: 23,33% (+1,13) 6
CSP: 23,14% (-1,72) 6 -1
PFF-MR: 11,36% (-4,19) 3 -1
SP: 14,84% (-1,23) 4
Parti Libertarien: 1,15%
Edit: The outgoing ProDG, SP, and PFF-MR coalition loses one seat, which leaves that combination with 13 out of 25. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on May 26, 2019 19:30:21 GMT
Brussels-Capital parliament after more than half the votes have been counted: French language group:
ECOLO: 20,66% (+10,55)
CDH: 6,92% (-4,82)
MR: 18,85% (-4,19)
PARTI POPULAIRE: 1,66% (-0,28)
DéFI: 15,92% (+1,12)
PTB: 11,43% (+7,57)
LISTES DESTEXHE: 2,86%
PS: 19,05% (-7,54)
act-SALEM: 0,26%
be@eu: 0,12%
Collectif Citoyen: 0,52%
DierAnimal: 1,36%
Hé: 0,13%
Plan B: 0,26%
Dutch language group:
Open Vld: 16,67% (-10,02)
N-VA: 17,57% (+0,57)
VLAAMS BELANG: 7,71% (+2,12)
CD&V: 7,37% (-4,06)
GROEN: 22,02% (+4,12)
Agora: 6,72%
Be.One: 3,67%
DIERANIMAL - NL: 1,02%
one.brussels-sp.a: 13,24% (19,57% for s.pa in 2014)
PVDA: 4,02%
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 26, 2019 20:00:22 GMT
PS beaten in Brussels! Marvellous.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on May 27, 2019 0:01:12 GMT
PS beaten in Brussels! Marvellous. I can remember quite a few last minute swings, and here too the Socialists have ended up one seat ahead of the Greens. Parliament of the Brussels-Capital Region, 72 seats in the French language electoral college, and 17 in the Dutch language electoral college:
| Vote Share
| Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| PS - sp.a
| 18.7+2.3=21.0%
| -4.8±0=-4.8
| 17+3=20
| -4±0=-4
| MR - Open Vld
| 14.3+2.4=16.7%
| -6.1-0.7=-6.8 | 13+3=16
| -5-2=-7
| DéFI - N-VA
| 11.7+2.7=14.4%
| -1.4+0.7=-0.7 | 10+3=13
| -2±0=-2
| cdH - CD&V
| 6.4+1.1=7.5%
| -4.0-0.2=-4.2 | 6+1=7
| -3-1=-4
| Ecolo - Groen
| 16.2+3.1=19.3%
| +7.3+1.0=+8.3 | 15+4=19
| +7+1=+8
| PTB - PVDA
| 11.4+0.7=11.8%
| +8.7 | 10+1=11 | +7
| - VB
| 1.3%
| +0.7 | 1
| ±0
| | - Agora¹ | 0.8% | +0.8 | 1 | +1 | | DierAnimal² - | 1.1% | +1.1 | 1 | +1 |
- Wants a sortition based citizens assembly with legislative powers.
- Sister party of the Dutch Party for the Animals.
The Flemish Parliament is also complete (124 seats).
| Share | Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| | N-VA | 24.8%
| -7.1 | 35 | -8
| | CD&V | 15.4%
| -5.1 | 19 | -8
| Open Vld
| 13.1%
| -1.0 | 16
| -3
| sp.a
| 10.3%
| -3.6 | 13
| -5
| Groen
| 10.1%
| +1.4 | 14
| +4
| VB
| 18.5%
| +12.6 | 23 | +17
| PVDA
| 5.3%
| +2.8 | 4 | +4 | UF
| 0.7%
| -0.1 | 0 | -1 |
...and the Walloons were the penultimate part to complete the count. Walloon Parliament (75 seats).
| Share | Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| | PS | 26.2%
| -4.7 | 23
| -7
| MR
| 21.4%
| -5.3 | 20 | -5
| cdH
| 11.0%
| -4.2 | 10
| -3
| Ecolo
| 14.5%
| +5.9 | 12
| +8
| PTB
| 13.7%
| +7.9 | 10
| +8
| PP
| 3.7%
| -1.2 | 0 | -1 |
Of note that the elections website specifies that these are the unofficial final results.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,211
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 27, 2019 2:11:27 GMT
PS beaten in Brussels! Marvellous. I can remember quite a few last minute swings, and here too the Socialists have ended up one seat ahead of the Greens. Parliament of the Brussels-Capital Region, 72 seats in the French language electoral college, and 17 in the Dutch language electoral college:
| Vote Share
| Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| PS - sp.a
| 18.7+2.3=21.0%
| -4.8±0=-4.8
| 17+3=20
| -4±0=-4
| MR - Open Vld
| 14.3+2.4=16.7%
| -6.1-0.7=-6.8 | 13+3=16
| -5-2=-7
| DéFI - N-VA
| 11.7+2.7=14.4%
| -1.4+0.7=-0.7 | 10+3=13
| -2±0=-2
| cdH - CD&V
| 6.4+1.1=7.5%
| -4.0-0.2=-4.2 | 6+1=7
| -3-1=-4
| Ecolo - Groen
| 16.2+3.1=19.3%
| +7.3+1.0=+8.3 | 15+4=19
| +7+1=+8
| PTB - PVDA
| 11.4+0.7=11.8%
| +8.7 | 10+1=11 | +7
| - VB
| 1.3%
| +0.7 | 1
| ±0
| | - Agora | 0.8% | +0.8 | 1 | +1 | | Dier/Animal - | 1.1% | +1.1 | 1 | +1 |
The Flemish Parliament is also complete (124 seats).
| Share | Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| | NVA | 24.8%
| -7.1 | 35 | -8
| | CD&V | 15.4%
| -5.1 | 19 | -8
| Open Vld
| 13.1%
| -1.0 | 16
| -3
| sp.a
| 10.3%
| -3.6 | 13
| -5
| Groen
| 10.1%
| +1.4 | 14
| +4
| VB
| 18.5%
| +12.6 | 23 | +17
| PVDA+
| 5.3%
| +2.8 | 4 | +4 | UF
| 0.7%
| -0.1 | 0 | -1 |
...and the Walloons were the penultimate part to complete the count. Walloon Parliament (75 seats).
| Share | Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| | PS | 26.2%
| -4.7 | 23
| -7
| MR
| 21.4%
| -5.3 | 20 | -5
| cdH
| 11.0%
| -4.2 | 10
| -3
| Ecolo
| 14.5%
| +5.9 | 12
| +8
| PTB
| 13.7%
| +7.9 | 10
| +8
| PP
| 3.7%
| -1.2 | 0 | -1 |
Of note that the elections website specifies that these are the unofficial final results.
...what means, that in Flanders - and in consequence perhaps also federally? - nothing goes without N-VA. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on May 27, 2019 7:19:40 GMT
I can remember quite a few last minute swings, and here too the Socialists have ended up one seat ahead of the Greens. Parliament of the Brussels-Capital Region, 72 seats in the French language electoral college, and 17 in the Dutch language electoral college:
| Vote Share
| Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| PS - sp.a
| 18.7+2.3=21.0%
| -4.8±0=-4.8
| 17+3=20
| -4±0=-4
| MR - Open Vld
| 14.3+2.4=16.7%
| -6.1-0.7=-6.8 | 13+3=16
| -5-2=-7
| DéFI - N-VA
| 11.7+2.7=14.4%
| -1.4+0.7=-0.7 | 10+3=13
| -2±0=-2
| cdH - CD&V
| 6.4+1.1=7.5%
| -4.0-0.2=-4.2 | 6+1=7
| -3-1=-4
| Ecolo - Groen
| 16.2+3.1=19.3%
| +7.3+1.0=+8.3 | 15+4=19
| +7+1=+8
| PTB - PVDA
| 11.4+0.7=11.8%
| +8.7 | 10+1=11 | +7
| - VB
| 1.3%
| +0.7 | 1
| ±0
| | - Agora | 0.8% | +0.8 | 1 | +1 | | Dier/Animal - | 1.1% | +1.1 | 1 | +1 |
The Flemish Parliament is also complete (124 seats).
| Share | Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| | NVA | 24.8%
| -7.1 | 35 | -8
| | CD&V | 15.4%
| -5.1 | 19 | -8
| Open Vld
| 13.1%
| -1.0 | 16
| -3
| sp.a
| 10.3%
| -3.6 | 13
| -5
| Groen
| 10.1%
| +1.4 | 14
| +4
| VB
| 18.5%
| +12.6 | 23 | +17
| PVDA+
| 5.3%
| +2.8 | 4 | +4 | UF
| 0.7%
| -0.1 | 0 | -1 |
...and the Walloons were the penultimate part to complete the count. Walloon Parliament (75 seats).
| Share | Δ%
| Seats | Δ
| | PS | 26.2%
| -4.7 | 23
| -7
| MR
| 21.4%
| -5.3 | 20 | -5
| cdH
| 11.0%
| -4.2 | 10
| -3
| Ecolo
| 14.5%
| +5.9 | 12
| +8
| PTB
| 13.7%
| +7.9 | 10
| +8
| PP
| 3.7%
| -1.2 | 0 | -1 |
Of note that the elections website specifies that these are the unofficial final results.
...what means, that in Flanders - and in consequence perhaps also federally? - nothing goes without N-VA. The 2009-14 Peters II government in Flanders was a CD&V, N-VA, and sp.a coalition, while the N-VA wasn't in the federal government. What usually happens, is that the monarch tries to mediate between the parties and than nominates either a formator or an informator, whereby the latter means that the nominated person takes over the mediation job. With one missing ballot box from Beaumont in the Hainaut, the seats haven't moved from the last update, and the three top options in the poll on the other thread scratch past the 75 mark, where by the second also needs DéFI to do so. N-VA+Red+Blue: 80 seats (-23)
N-VA+Red+Green+DéFI: 77 seats (-6)
Red+Blue+Green: 76 seats (-6) Edit: If the box missing in Beaumont were an average box on average demographics and turnout it would contain some 1286 votes or 0.18% of the vote in the Hainaut. Which is nowhere near any chance to change the current d'Hondt repartition according to my back of the envelope calculations. |
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