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Post by middleenglander on May 13, 2018 20:38:26 GMT
There are 10 elections for 11 seats in the second half of May - 8 by-elections including a "double" seat along with 2 elections deferred from 3 May.
* 17 May - 2 single seat by-elections and 1 "double" seat by-election
* 24 May - 5 by-elections and 1 deferred election
* 25 May - 1 deferred election
* 31 May - 0
7 of the by-elections are for district councils which had "all out" contests in 2015, 1 being a single member seat
- although 4 have since had by-elections including in the "double" seat
1 is for a Unitary Authority which had an "all out" election in 2016 whilst
1 deferred election is for a Metropolitan Borough and
1 deferred election is for a District Council that holds "annual" elections.
Conservatives are defending 4 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 3 a resignation
Labour defend 2 seats, 1 following a death and 1 a resignation, and 2 deferred elections
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation
Greens defend 1 seat following a resignation although former Councillor was sitting as Labour with
Farnham Residents defending 1 seat also after a resignation.
Conservatives and Labour are contesting all 11 seats, Liberal Democrats 10, Greens 6, UKIP 2, Independents 2
along with 1 each Farnham Residents and Lincolnshire Independent - a total of 44 candidates for the 11 seats.
As there are 2 candidates each for Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens in Lancaster: University & Scotforth Rural, predictions should be based on the total valid votes counted for each party.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 13, 2018 20:40:49 GMT
Do we normally include deferred elections in the prediction competition?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 13, 2018 23:31:28 GMT
Do we normally include deferred elections in the prediction competition? Yes |
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Post by robbienicoll on May 16, 2018 10:48:19 GMT
Posting early as my last exam for this year is in a couple of hours and won't be in any fit state to be adding up to 100 accurately afterwards, let alone get the right winner!
Skerton West, Lancaster: Con 29, Lab 43, LD 20, Green 8
University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster: Con 19, Lab 34, LD 20, Green 27
Leiston, Suffolk Coastal: Con 29, Lab 15, LD 13, Ind 43
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Post by Robert Waller on May 16, 2018 16:37:17 GMT
Skerton West, Lancaster: Con 31, Lab 55, LD 7, Green 7
University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster: Con 18, Lab 44, LD 14, Green 24
Leiston, Suffolk Coastal: Con 35, Lab 28, LD 8, Ind 29
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Post by greenhert on May 16, 2018 21:09:04 GMT
Lancaster BC, Skerton West: Labour 58, Conservative 30, Green 7, Liberal Democrats 5.
Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural: Labour 45, Green 30, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 10.
Suffolk Coastal DC, Leiston: Independent 34, Conservative 32, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 9.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 16, 2018 23:41:19 GMT
LANCASTER Skerton West: Lab 55, C 27, GP 10, L Dem 8
LANCASTER University and Scotforth Rural: Lab 37, GP 33, C 20, L Dem 10
SUFFOLK COASTAL Leiston: Ind 40, C 32, Lab 18, L Dem 10
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Post by yellowperil on May 17, 2018 1:41:01 GMT
Lancaster, Skerton West: Con 30, Lab 56, LD 4, Green 10
Lancaster, University & Scotforth: Con 15, Lab 45, LD 10, Green 30
Suffolk Coastal, Leiston: Con 33, Lab 30, LD 5, Ind 32
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 17, 2018 5:59:20 GMT
Lancaster, Skerton West Lab 53, Con 32, Lib Dem 8, Green 7
Lancaster, University and Scotforth Rural Lab 38, Green 27, Con 21, Lib Dem 14
Suffolk Coastal, Leiston Con 34, Ind 33, Lab 23, Lib Dem 10
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Post by Right Leaning on May 17, 2018 6:55:58 GMT
Skerton West, Lancaster: Con 28, Lab 57, LD 10, Green 5
University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster: Con 18, Lab 40, LD 10, Green 32
Leiston, Suffolk Coastal: Con 35, Lab 23, LD 5, Ind 37
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Post by olympian95 on May 17, 2018 7:12:57 GMT
Lancaster - University:
Lab 44, Green 24, Con 18, LD 14
Lancaster - Skerton
Lab 53, Con 23, Green 14, LD 10
Suffolk
Ind 35, Con 31, Lab 25, LD 9
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Post by hempie on May 17, 2018 7:28:23 GMT
Lancaster, Skerton West: Lab 52, Con 30,LD 10, Green 8
Lancaster, University and Scotforth Rural: Lab 42, Green 30, Con 16, LD 12
Suffolk Coastal, Leiston: Con 33, Ind 28, Lab 28, LD 11
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2018 10:01:10 GMT
Skerton West, Lancaster: Con 31, Lab 56, LD 7, Green 6
University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster: Con 38, Lab 52, LD 4, Green 6
Leiston, Suffolk Coastal: Con 42, Lab 38, LD 9, Ind 2
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Post by syorkssocialist on May 17, 2018 15:26:02 GMT
Skerton West, Lancaster: Lab 55, Con 34, LD 7, Green 4
University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster: Lab 42, Green 26, Con 19, LD 13
Leiston, Suffolk Coastal: Con 35, Ind 31, Lab 27, LD 7
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Post by robbienicoll on May 17, 2018 19:11:50 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on May 17, 2018 20:06:32 GMT
11 entries this week with syorkssocialist making a first appearance. priceofdawn gets 9 additional faults for only adding to 91% in Leiston. He also gets 3 x 15 additional faults for posting just over 2 hours late whilst syorkssocialist should have 3 x 70 additional faults for posting nearly 7½ hours late. However I will give only 3 x 35 additional faults it is his first entry
Lancaster, Skerton West: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservation from 14% (robbienicholl) to 30% (Olympian95)
Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural: 100% Labour hold / gain from Green
Suffolk Coastal, Leiston: 6 Conservative hold, David Boothroyd, greenrobinhood, olympian95, Right Leaning and robbienicholl Independent gain.
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Post by middleenglander on May 18, 2018 11:40:47 GMT
For 17 May:| Authority | Lancaster | Lancaster | Suffolk Coastal | Total | May 17 | Ward | Skerton West | University &
Scotforth Rural | Leiston | faults | position | andrewp | 11.7
| 16.2
| 25.7
| 53.6
| 3rd
| David Boothroyd | 8.4
| 21.1
| 39.7+10
| 79.2
| 8th
| greenrobinhood | 8.6
| 11.1
| 31.5+10
| 61.2
| 4th
| hempie | 11.1
| 12.2
| 25.5
| 48.8
| 2nd
| olympian95 | 17.8
| 5.1
| 33.5+10
| 66.4
| 7th
| priceofdawn | 7.7+15 | 51.8+15 | 38.8+9+15 | 152.3
| 10th
| Right Leaning | 2.7
| 15.1
| 33.7+10
| 61.5
| 5th
| robbienicholl | 29.1
| 24.2
| 45.7+10
| 109.0
| 9th
| Robert Waller | 9.7
| 5.1
| 27.5
| 42.3
| 1st
| Yellow Peril | 13.7
| 11.1
| 37.5
| 62.3
| 6th
| syorkssocialist | 13.3+35 | 8.2+35 | 29.5+35 | 155.9
| 11th
| Total | 133.9+50
| 181.1+50
| 368.5+50+9+50
| 892.5
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If syorkssocialist had posted on time they would have had 50.9 faults and come 3rd. Objections please by noon Sunday, There are 5 by-elections and 1 deferred election next Thursday together with 1 deferred election on Friday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
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Post by yellowperil on May 18, 2018 12:24:59 GMT
Congratulations, of course to Robert, the man who always seems to make this very hard thing look easy, but also congratulations too to syorkssocialist who though he will have a poor score this time, almost entirely due to late faults, actually was pretty good at the prediction which is after all what this is really all about- think he would have been third on prediction, discounting the 105 late faults.(I see ME has now confirmed that) Hope he will keep going (and get them in on time in future!) because he might be quite a competitor.
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Post by syorkssocialist on May 18, 2018 13:14:31 GMT
That'll teach me to read the OP in full  |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 23, 2018 17:15:22 GMT
Have we got 7 For the comp this week?
Bristol
Broadland
Horsham
North Kesteven
Waverley
Stockport
Tamworth
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