Highest vote method or average vote method?

[swanarcadian]

For obvious reasons I've seen these terms being used numerous times over the past few days.  Which method do you prefer to be used when calculating aggregate votes, or notional results in cases where wards elect more than one councillor simultaneously?

[Deleted]

When doing the average vote method, should you divide the shares for parties who undernominate (e.g. 1 or 2 candidates for a 3 member ward) by the number of candidates, or the number of available seats? As far as I know, there is no consensus on this.

Although it's not directly comparable to results for single member wards, I think calculating the proportion of those who cast eligible votes who voted for a certain candidate is interesting (i.e. dividing the vote share of a candidate by the number of eligible ballots rather than total votes cast).

[timrollpickering]

Average vote, but done by dividing total votes by voting power. Otherwise you can get odd results when multiple parties stand incomplete slates and it also means you don't have to worry about which independents or parties are in harness.

[johnloony]

I use the average vote method: the total number of votes for a party, divided by the number of candidates for the party. To translate it into a percentage, I divide the number of votes by the turnout, i.e. the total of the percentages for all parties do not add up to 100%, unless all the voters have used all votes for one party.

[Pete Whitehead]

I always do top vote method not least because it's a lot quicker but I'm aware of its limitation. To be honest no system is perfect because of the problem of incomplete slates in particular.

[carlton43]

Average
Divide by number of candidates presented not number of vacancies
Divide by total turnout not total electorate.

[jamie]

A case can be made for either, but I personally prefer average vote as it reduces the distortion caused by popular individuals so you get a better reflection of the real support for a party.

[Foggy]

I cannot vote for either option in the poll. I believe that the electoral system for local government should be changed in such a way that this problem does not arise.

[swanarcadian]

May 7, 2018 20:56:53 GMT Foggy said:

I cannot vote for either option in the poll. I believe that the electoral system for local government should be changed in such a way that this problem does not arise.

Okay, I'll put it another way.  Which method would you prefer whilst the current electoral system - as controversial as it is - remains in operation?

[yellowperil]

I will vote with Foggy.

[Foggy]

May 7, 2018 21:02:23 GMT swanarcadian said:

May 7, 2018 20:56:53 GMT Foggy said:

I cannot vote for either option in the poll. I believe that the electoral system for local government should be changed in such a way that this problem does not arise.

Okay, I'll put it another way.  Which method would you prefer whilst the current electoral system - as controversial as it is - remains in operation?

Gun to my head, I'll hold my nose and go for the averages method

[Andrew_S]

There's also the Total Votes Method which seems to be favoured by local councils.

[johnloony]

May 7, 2018 23:18:51 GMT Andrew_S said:

There's also the Total Votes Method which seems to be favoured by local councils.

I have noticed that bar charts and pie charts often give percentages of the total vote, as if all the candidates are standing in a single-vacancy election. In other words, they can't be bothered to programme the computer properly.

[timrollpickering]

May 7, 2018 23:18:51 GMT Andrew_S said:

There's also the Total Votes Method which seems to be favoured by local councils.

Yes but different numbers of councillors per ward make it a problem, hence why totals should be divided by the number of vacancies to level things down.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 8, 2018 10:12:20 GMT timrollpickering said:

May 7, 2018 23:18:51 GMT Andrew_S said:

There's also the Total Votes Method which seems to be favoured by local councils.

Yes but different numbers of councillors per ward make it a problem, hence why totals should be divided by the number of vacancies to level things down.

Yes I remember a kerfuffle about Gravesham council in 2011 - Ed Miliband was crowing about Labour taking control but then Guido or someone pointed out that the Conservatives won the popular vote (which they did on either average vote or top vote method). Guido was then forced to retract when the council website showed a Labour lead because it was based on total vote. All of the Labour seats were in three-member ward whereas most of the Conservative seats were in two or one member wards. Clearly there were more voters voting for Conservative candidates than for Labour candidates but in the most Labour wards, some of these voters were being counted three times.

[greenchristian]

Average vote. It gives a much better feel for part support (reducing the distortions when one candidate has a large personal vote). And when you are trying to combine figures with single-member wards (e.g. when one ward in a thirds council has a double vacancy) the figures from the multiple-vacancy ward are less likely to be significantly larger than the actual turnout. So are more comparable with the single-member wards.

I hadn't previously considered the slightly more complex johnloony method, but it does somewhat appeal to me as a solution.

[timrollpickering]

Here's a little challenge. Which party came second in Forest Gate ward in the 1994 Newham council elections?

Glynis A. Carpenter Labour 1,849
Shama Ahmad Labour 1,601
Conor M. McAuley Labour 1,528
John M. Gray Liberal Democrat 544
Christine Hodgson Conservative 471
Louise Pritchard Green 450
Jonathan Ivinson Conservative 429
Doris Rees Conservative 409
Jean M. Tee Liberal Democrat 408
Walter C. Tee Liberal Democrat 310

(Forest Gate ward is now entirely part of the Forest Gate North ward, basically the centre & eastern parts with E7 postcodes. Amongst other things it contains the site of the former gate itself.)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

That's easy. Labour came second.

[Andrew_S]

May 8, 2018 20:26:42 GMT timrollpickering said:

Here's a little challenge. Which party came second in Forest Gate ward in the 1994 Newham council elections?

Glynis A. Carpenter Labour 1,849
Shama Ahmad Labour 1,601
Conor M. McAuley Labour 1,528
John M. Gray Liberal Democrat 544
Christine Hodgson Conservative 471
Louise Pritchard Green 450
Jonathan Ivinson Conservative 429
Doris Rees Conservative 409
Jean M. Tee Liberal Democrat 408
Walter C. Tee Liberal Democrat 310

(Forest Gate ward is now entirely part of the Forest Gate North ward, basically the centre & eastern parts with E7 postcodes. Amongst other things it contains the site of the former gate itself.)

Maybe I'm thick but I can't see what the challenge is.

[andrewp]

May 8, 2018 20:28:28 GMT Andrew_S said:

May 8, 2018 20:26:42 GMT timrollpickering said:

Here's a little challenge. Which party came second in Forest Gate ward in the 1994 Newham council elections?

Glynis A. Carpenter Labour 1,849
Shama Ahmad Labour 1,601
Conor M. McAuley Labour 1,528
John M. Gray Liberal Democrat 544
Christine Hodgson Conservative 471
Louise Pritchard Green 450
Jonathan Ivinson Conservative 429
Doris Rees Conservative 409
Jean M. Tee Liberal Democrat 408
Walter C. Tee Liberal Democrat 310

(Forest Gate ward is now entirely part of the Forest Gate North ward, basically the centre & eastern parts with E7 postcodes. Amongst other things it contains the site of the former gate itself.)

Maybe I'm thick but I can't see what the challenge is.

You’ve done well to find that example ( if it is a real result) to test the highest vote or average debate. Liberal Democrat’s for me.