Greenlandic Inatsisartut election, 2018

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The votes from Sisimiut town haven't been counted, and that is about 10% of the vote, before the counting stopped, but it clear that IA lost big in Nuuk and that their gains elsewhere could make that up, so they end in second place. Both the big parties have lost about the same, but Siumut started from a higher level. The centre-right won, with the Democrats as the big winners, the Cooperation Party above 4% and Atasssut nearly holding their vote from last time despite not having any incumbents. Nunatta Qitornai get one seat, 

Businessman and former footballer Niels Thomsen (Democrats) who returned to politics after a career in the private sector, got more than 9% of the vote as personale vote. More than four times as many as his party chairman, who ended in third place, also behind Nivi Olsen. Vittus Q. gets the Nunatta Qitornai seat with four times as many votes as Hammond, who only got 0.6%. Nice to see her fail miserably in her comeback attempt. Unfortunately scandalized ex-MP Jens Nappaattooq gets back in - this time for Naleraq, so its not a total no to corrupt politicians. Former Parti Inuit chairman and girl friend beater Nikkku Olsen only at 22 votes. Naleraq didn't gain on letting PI in. Tillie Martinussen gets the Cooperation Party seat with 1.7% of the vote, Michael Rosing only got 1.2%. 

The Sisimiut votes are unlikely to change this picture. 

Atassut 6.0% (-0.5)
Democrats 19.6% (+7.8)
Inuit Ataqatigiit 26.1% (-7.0)
Nunatta Qitornai 3.4% (new)
Partii Naleraq 12.9% (+1.3)
Siumut 26.8% (-7.5)
Cooperation Party 4.3% new)

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Niels Thomsen (36) is from Ilulissat and got a master degree in public administration from the University of Greenland. He was on the Greenlandic national football team and also won the championship with his club a couple of times. He was elected to the Inatsisartut in 2009 with the 7th highest share of the votes nationally, and became their political spokesperson. His main focus area as a politician was economy, education and anti-discrimination, where he was a defender of the Danish speaking minority. He left politics in 2011 to become CEO of Hallibut Greenland A/S. It was clear he was still very popular, but 9.3 points vs. 10.3 to the rest of the party (pre-Sisimiut) is impressive. It could be interpreted as a signal to the Democrats by their voters that they should return to a more classic "Lets unite Greenland" position and not accommodate Greenlandic nationalism to the degree Randi Vestergaard Evaldsen has done, though he also got a substantial local boy made good vote. Thomsen got 12.1% of the vote in Nuuk (more than 3 x as much as Vestergaard, who got 3.7%) and a whopping 24.2% in his hometown Ilulissat (3rd largest town). 

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Aleqa Hammond landed behind Vittus Qujaukitsoq even in her hometown Uummannaq. She got 2.5% and he got 3.1%. Its a small place so its only a seven vote difference (37 to 30), but its still humiliating for her, she probably only got votes from her own family plus a handful of others.

It will be interesting to see where she goes after her term in the Folketing ends in 2019, but she will likely land a cushy consultancy job somewhere, despite being basically incompetent.

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Candidates with more than 2% of the vote pre-Sisimiut:

Sara Olsvig (IA) 11.5% (-8.3)
Niels Thomsen (D) 9.3% (new)
Hans Enoksen (N) 8.6% (+0.4)
Kim Kielsen 7.4 (-8.1)

Nivi Olsen (D) 3.0% (-1.8)
Aqqaluaq B. Egede (IA) 3.0% (-0.4)
Vittus Qujaukitsoq (NQ) 2.4% (+2.1)
Randi Vestergaard Evaldsen (D) 2.0% (+1.6)

So a big decline for both the leaders of the Big2. Kielsen now only in fourth place. 

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The Nuuk result shows IA punished for working with Siumut. As residents in a bilingual town with an economy reliant on the Danish block grant (and often with a mixed Greenlandic/Danish family background) the Nuuk middle class is generally not favourable to a fast track to independence. Many of them are also fairly affluent and "natural" centre-right voters, but some have voted IA as the main anti-Siumut option (and also due to environmentalism and other issues). Its almost certainly that vote IA have lost to the Democrats and especially the Cooperation Party, which failed to reach double digits by a whisker. Both Naleraq and Nunatta Qitornai took votes from Siumut on a more principled approach to independence.  

The election leaves IA with gains on the Coast and a more natural voting base for a left wing nationalist party after having "borrowed" a lot of urban liberal votes as the competent managers and allies of the Democrats (the 2009-13 coalition between IA and the Democrats was very popular in Nuuk).

Atassut 2.6% (-0.7)
Democrats 26.8% (+4.4)
Inuit Ataqatigiit 29.1% (-13.6)
Nunatta Qitornai 2.5% (new)
Naleraq 11.5% (+4.0)
Siumut 16.6% (-5.2)
Cooperation Party 9.8% (new)


 

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There is a full recount going on in Sisimiut, which is why their result is delayed.

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The Democrats got 22.8% back in 2005, so this will "only" be their second best result, but the combined vote for the Democrats and the breakaway Cooperation Party will be bigger (unless they somehow massively underperform in Sisimiut, but that is very unlikely).

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Seats (based on pre-recount numbers, but they are unlikely to change)

Siumut 9 (-2)
Inuit Ataqatigiit 8 (-3)
Democrats 6 (+2)
Naleraq 4 (+1)
Atassut 2 (nc)
Nunatta Qitornai 1 (new)
Cooperation Party 1 (new)

The gender distribution in the Inatsisartut is still skewed with 19 men and 12 women elected due to the settlement/small town dominated parties Naleraq, Atassut and Nunatta Qitornai - with seven seats combined - only electing male MPs. IA got five female and three male MPs and the Democrats have a 50/50 distribution, whereas Siumut elected 2/3 males, and the sole representative of the Cooperation Party is a woman. 

IA and the Democrats only have 14 seats combined (15 with the Cooperation Party), which means Siumut is unavoidable (IA/Atassut is a bridge too far on the left/right axis). The two seats Siumut lost went to Naleraq and Nunatta Qitornai, so they remain in the family. 

Political tendency:

Left wing 8 (-3)
Siumut family 14 (nc)
Centre-right 9 (+3)

The more radically nationalist parties within the Siumut family gained two seats, while the unionists and quasi-unionists ("long termers") on the centre-right gained three seats, so there is increased polarization on the independence issue.

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Apr 25, 2018 4:55:29 GMT @vintris said:

The Sisimiut votes are unlikely to change this picture. 

Atassut 6.0% (-0.5)
Democrats 19.6% (+7.8)
Inuit Ataqatigiit 26.1% (-7.0)
Nunatta Qitornai 3.4% (new)
Partii Naleraq 12.9% (+1.3)
Siumut 26.8% (-7.5)
Cooperation Party 4.3% new)

They didn't. IA just lost a bit more and Naleraq and Siumut gained, as one would expect from a fishing town like Sisimiut. 

Atassut 5.9% (-0.6)
Democrats 19.5% (+7.7)
Inuit Ataqatigiit 25.5% (-7.6)
Nunatta Qitornai 3.4% (new)
Naleraq 13.4% (+1.8)
Siumut 27.2% (-7.1)
Cooperation Party 4.1% (new)

Votes per seat:

Cooperation Party 1,193
Nunatta Qitornai 1,002
Partii Naleraq 983
Democrats 952
Inuit Ataqatigiit 935
Siumut 884
Atassut 865

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As an aside the Democrats now have a real shot at one of the two Folketing seats next year, as they have nearly made it a "Big 3" situation and the Cooperation Party vote should go to them in a Folketing election. Their Danish sister party is Radikale Venstre, so they would likely still support Mette Frederiksen as PM if the North Atlantic seats came into play, but still a potential break with the "always two red seats from Greenland" situation.

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I couldn't get the numbers to add up, so I checked and IA didn't just lose in Nuuk while "gaining on the coast" as the early reports said. It was a national loss. IA did gain in the three small towns Qasigiannguit, Qaanaaq (doubling their vote) and Kangaatsiaq plus some settlements, but they lost everywhere it mattered.

IA results in the six largest towns outside Nuuk:

Sisimiut 19.3 (-11.4)
Ilulissat 18.5 (-9.9) (though nearly everyone lost here except the Democrats that gained 21.9 points thanks to Niels Thomsen)
Qaqortoq 25.8 (-2.1)
Aasiaat 40.6 (-8.7)
Maniitsoq 21.8 (nc)
Tasiilaq 16.9 (-1.6)

It looks like they lost educated people (which is slightly less than half the voters in Greenland) directly to the Democrats and Cooperation Party all over the country, but with no exit poll that is impossible to say for certain. IA lost the most in the places with the largest share of people with a tertiary education and gained in places with very few of those, and therefore little vote to be lost to the centre-right. 

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Regarding possible coalitions the outgoing broad "independence coalition" between Siumut, IA and Naleraq could of course continue, but everyone was tired of it and Greenlandic media seem to assume it would be a pure Siumut/IA coalition if a grand coalition has to be reestablished as that would be more manageable (and Naleraq have promised an awful lot of things). Though as IA were punished for going into coalition with Siumut they are likely reluctant to continue. 

The only realistic alternative for Kim Kielsen is to repeat the 2014-16 coalition with the Democrats and Atassut, but the way the two centre-right parties were unceremoniously dumped by Siumut in 2016 might make that harder. It would also require Siumut to take it slower on independence and likely ditch the attempt to create a Greenlandic constitution, which could cost them votes to Naleraq and Nunatta Qitornai next time. 

The Cooperation Party have said they prefer to be in opposition in their first term and act as a watchdog, and that leaves Sara Olsvig with only one realistic option: Teaming up with the Democrats and Atassut, which would be from one end of the left-right axis to the other. Boosted by their victory the Democrats have demand substantial tax cuts, which might be hard for IA to accommodate. 

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Turnout ended on 71.9%, one point below 2014, but Nuuk had a 3.5 point drop from 70.3% to 66.8%.

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More than half of the Inatsisartut is new, although some are former Inatsisartut members returning, that is the biggest turnover ever. 

Five incumbent MPs chose not to run for reelection, while no less than 14 weren't reelected. In addition Minister of Health Agathe Fontain (IA), who was made the scapegoat for the government's unpopular restrictions on alcohol sale, failed to gain a seat. 

Siumut lost four of their MPs elected last time (incl. young hope Ineqi Kielsen and former Qaasuitsup mayor Jess Svane), as well as the two Atassut defectors Knud Kristiansen and Mala Høy Kuko. 

Five MPs from Inuit Ataqatigiit failed to get reelected, but they were all backbenchers. 

Despite Naleraq gaining a seat former Ilulissat mayor Anthon Frederiksen and ex-Partii Inuit chairman Per-Rosing Petersen weren't reelected for Naleraq. While Michael Rosing wasn't reelected for his new Cooperation Party. 

Four Siumut MPs (incl. Speaker and ex-PM Lars-Emil Johansen, Minister of Foreign Affairs & Independence Sula K. Frederiksen and the ex-Minister of Mining Jens-Erik Kierkegaard) didn't run for reelection. Neither did Inuit Ataqatigiit's member of the Folketing Aaja Chemnitz Larsen.

Siumut got four new MPs incl. mayor of Sisimiut/Qeqqata 1999-2017 Hermann Berthelsen, the deputy mayor of  Kujalleq Simon Simonsen and the chair of the Constitutional Commission Vivian Motzfeldt.

Inuit Ataqatigiit also got four new MPs incl. Minister for Mineral Resources and deputy chairman Múte Bourup Egede and Mikivsuk Thomassen from Qaanaaq, who doubled their vote up there.

The Democrats got three new MPs incl. the previously mentioned CEO and ex-footballer Niels Thomsen and guitarist, record producer and ex-Atassut deputy chairman Steen Lynge.

Naleraq got three new MPs including the pilot and wannabe entrepreneur Pele Broberg and scandalized ex-minister Jens Napaattooq from Upernavik, who spent ten years in "exile" in Denmark where he took a teacher education before returning to his hometown and claims he is a changed man. 

Ex-minister Vittus Qujaukitsoq got in for his new party Nunatta Qitornai‎ and ex-MP for the Democrats Tillie Martinussen was elected for the Cooperation Party. 

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The Democrats yesterday declared they are not going into coalition with Siumut, the distance between the parties is too big on issues like tax cuts, the constitutional commission (which the Democrats oppose), a reform pause and stop for Greenlandisation in the education system and a "wage lift" for the pedagogues.

This makes it nearly impossible to get a majority without IA (Atassut would need to accept both of the radical independence parties for that, which would undermine their newly rebuilt credibility). So its Siumut/IA or an unlikely coalition of IA and the entire centre-right. There is now a small possibility that it will end in new elections, though I doubt IA would risk that. 

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IA have presented seven demands for entering a coalition, some of which will be difficult for Siumut to accept. Especially because IA are basically asking Siumut to both stop being populists and actively combat discrimination of Danish speakers, thus removing two of their main tools to get votes at a time where they are challenged by two populist breakaway parties. 

- A new proposal for the Fisheries Act, based on their fishery policies.
- Reorganization of the Constitutional Commission with inclusion of non-Inatsisartut members (civil society, experts etc.) and a plan for citizen inclusion. 
- An equal treatment and anti-discrimination law. The Equality Council to be changed to an Equal Treatment Council (= extending it from gender discrimination to include LGBTQ, ethnic and linguistic discrimination).
- Strengthening the educational sector with a focus on action and improvements instead of grand reforms, as well as a thorough evaluation of the Atuarfitsialak ("the Good School", the disastrous primary school reform that should make teaching more experimental, hands-on, creative and Greenlandic, but resulted in a massive lowering of standards).
- Fiscal responsibility in connection with the launch of reforms and a structural reform of the Self-Government administration. 
- Animal husbandry and agriculture to be promoted following the recommendations in the Agricultural Commission. 
- A zero tolerance policy on uranium mining and export.

Apart from uranium mining these are all areas where IA would find it easier to agree with the centre-right (and Siumut are as pro-mining as the centre-right). Its also clear that IA want a stop to the quick fixes and grand reforms that Siumut thrive on. So even if they find a compromise on fishing - which seems likely - this looks tough. 

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IA have terminated their negotiations with Siumut. IA chairman Sara Olsvig says that they can't agree on a new fisheries law and also disagree about the future of the Constitutional Commission.

The Democrats say they are prepared to negotiate with IA about forming a coalition.

Kim Kielsen will now need to form a rickety four party coalition with Naleraq, Atassut and Vittus Q. if the wants to continue as PM. If he does Greenland is likely to have new elections within the next 1.5 years.

Atassut will become the kingmakers if IA and the Democrats can agree. 

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The Democrats have said that their main disagreements with Siumut were lower corporate taxes and putting the Constitutional Commission on stand by, both demands that will also be difficult for IA to agree to.

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May 3, 2018 18:26:52 GMT @vintris said:

Kim Kielsen will now need to form a rickety four party coalition with Naleraq, Atassut and Vittus Q. if the wants to continue as PM. If he does Greenland is likely to have new elections within the next 1.5 years.

Siumut have presented Partii Naleraq, Atassut and Nunatta Qitornai with a coalition agreement based on their negotiations during the previous days and the three parties are now presenting it for their respective boards and other powerbrokers.

If IA had gotten a mere 50 votes more they would have gained a seat from Atassut, too bad if that ends up being decisive.

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May 3, 2018 18:52:35 GMT @vintris said:

May 3, 2018 18:26:52 GMT @vintris said:

Kim Kielsen will now need to form a rickety four party coalition with Naleraq, Atassut and Vittus Q. if the wants to continue as PM. If he does Greenland is likely to have new elections within the next 1.5 years.

Siumut have presented Partii Naleraq, Atassut and Nunatta Qitornai with a coalition agreement based on their negotiations during the previous days and the three parties are now presenting it for their respective boards and other powerbrokers.

If IA had gotten a mere 50 votes more they would have gained a seat from Atassut, too bad if that ends up being decisive.

They are presenting this terrible coalition now.