Greenlandic Inatsisartut election, 2018

[yellowperil]

Apr 3, 2018 9:47:39 GMT @vintris said:

The far north
..

Since the entire NE Greenland constitutes the world's largest national park at 972.000 km² and has no voters this concludes my description of the electoral geography in Greenland.

I love this signing off! It sounds only marginally more extreme a summary of the whole area than what went before!

What an extraordinary world - how much of this is based on first hand experience, because it must be an extraordinary place to be? The nearest I've got to it is overflying it en route to the west of Canada and even from a high flying jet it looked extraordinary. And the communities are so tiny- you feel those polls giving support for individual parties in minute communities to at least a decimal place must be dealing with very small numbers indeed?

[Deleted]

Apr 3, 2018 14:27:37 GMT yellowperil said:

Apr 3, 2018 9:47:39 GMT @vintris said:

The far north
..

Since the entire NE Greenland constitutes the world's largest national park at 972.000 km² and has no voters this concludes my description of the electoral geography in Greenland.

I love this signing off! It sounds only marginally more extreme a summary of the whole area than what went before!

What an extraordinary world - how much of this is based on first hand experience, because it must be an extraordinary place to be? The nearest I've got to it is overflying it en route to the west of Canada and even from a high flying jet it looked extraordinary. And the communities are so tiny- you feel those polls giving support for individual parties in minute communities to at least a decimal place must be dealing with very small numbers indeed?

I have lived in Aasiaat for a couple of years and briefly in Nuuk. I have been to all the towns in the Disko Bay area multiple times and know people from the far north living in Aasiaat. I have been to all the towns I described between Nuuk and Ilulissat, but not to Southern or Eastern Greenland, though I know a couple of East Greenlanders living in Nuuk and Copenhagen.

Yes, the numbers are indeed quite small in most places, but the movements usually follow national or regional trends so it still makes sense to analyse them. The source I got the data from uses single digits, so I used single digits as well when giving the 2014 results. I mostly rounded to the nearest whole number when describing movements.

[Deleted]

The candidate lists have been finalized (some days ago): naalakkersuisut.gl/da/Naalakkersuisut/Nyheder/2018/04/0504_godkendte

Inuit Ataqatigiit 62 (twice as many as the number of seats, which is the maximum) 
Siumut 59
Naleraq 35
Democrats 34
Atassut 19
Nunatta Qitornai 15 
Cooperation Party 8 

Notable candidates:

IA are running Eritrean born former head coach of the Greenlandic national football team Tekle Ghebrelul, a position he was fired from after having accused the spectators of racism and himself been accused of "shaking" a boy and provoking supporters. The football association GBU motivated the firing by saying that he "caused too much controversy". 

Naleraq are running the pilot and former CEO of Aluu Airlines Pele Broberg, who is involved in plans for a new airline hoping to challenge Air Grenland and thus has a very direct interest in the new airport structure; the former Atassut chairman Finn Karlsen, who switched to Siumut in 2010, but wasn't elected in 2014; and  former Minister of Housing and Infrastructure Jens Napaattooq, who was fired in 2005 for spending public funds on lavish "representation dinners" and visits to Copenhagen strip clubs, he then got convicted for "breach of trust" in 2009.  

The Democrats are running Steen Lynge, former Atassut deputy chairman, record company owner and drummer in pioneering rock band Simik.



Siumut is running the former Atassut MP Mala Høy Kúko, who has a substantial personal vote on the East Coast; and the CEO of the brewery Godthåb Bryghus Nicolai ’Burqa beer’ Nissen, famous for circumventing the Greenlandic ban on alcohol commercials in creative ways, including the veiled Burka Bâja. 

Nunatta Qitornai is running fomer PM Aleqa Hammond (mentioned above) and the veteran pop singer Pavia Geisler. 



The Cooperation party have six of eight candidates that are living in Nuuk, but as they stress only two of them are "from Nuuk". 

[Deleted]

As always infrastructure is one of the hot topics in the campaign.

Right now Greenland has two "Atlantic airports" at the old US airbases in Kangerluusuaq and Narsasuaq, these are the airports that can take big planes. All other towns have either small airports or heliports. Kangerluusuaq is the only place where you can go to any other overseas destinations than Iceland, and it also acts as the domestic air hub. It has the most reliable weather in Greenland (which is why the Americans build an airbase there in the first place), but given the distance to the main population centers its location is less than ideal. The 45 minute trip between Nuuk and Kangerluusuaq has sometimes been dubbed "the most expensive air trip in the world", and while this is exaggerated it is fairly pricy and the "golden egg" of Air Greenland.

The government plans/hopes to build three new "Atlantic" airports in Ilulissat, Nuuk and Qaqortoq (i.e. north, center and south). This means that Narsasuaq (which is in the middle of nowhere with only a tiny settlement attached to it) will be closed down and would likely mean that Kangerluusuaq will be closed as well.

These infrastructure plans is one of the main issues in the campaign (who gets what? is it all to costly? etc.). Airports is a sensitive issue in Greenland and emotions run high.

Furthermore the self-government owned Kalaallit Airports has pre-qualified China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) as one of the six companies that can submit bids on the airport project, much to the annoyance of the Danish government that do not want Chinese influence in Greenland. If CCCC ends up winning the contract Denmark may veto it due to security policy being a "realm matter" and that will unleash a major conflict between Denmark and Greenland.

Siumut and the Democrats now support building a road between Sisimiut and Kangerluusuaq, which would preserve Kangerluusuaq and potentially make the Sisimiut area able to rival Nuuk in the long run (I have written about this in the post about the areas electoral geography). The Democrats want it financed by private foundations (which may not be totally unrealistic, but these foundations would likely be primarily Danish, which is a problem for some) whereas Siumut just say its "an investment and not an expense".

Earlier in the campaign the Cooperation Party suggested that it was unnecessary to build a new airport in Qaqortoq and far better to build a road network between the towns in Southern Greenland, something the locals see as yet another attempt to "cheat" the south. Generally Greenlanders are pretty skeptical about road building, because maintenance and especially snow removal is so costly. Since Southern Greenland is one of the places where there is a substantial potential unionist vote this seems like a major error of judgement from the Cooperation Party.

IA want the Greenlandic self-government to purchase the 62.5% of Air Greenland that is owned by the Danish state and SAS, and claim this would become a major benefit for "the Greenlandic people". Others point out that once the three new airports are build new competitors will enter the market and the "golden egg" will be gone once you can fly directly to Europe and North America from Nuuk, making it dubious whether Air Greenland will remain profitable. Furthermore SAS has actually tried to sell off their share of Air Greenland because they do not consider it a good long term investment, but the self-government wasn't willing to pay the price. Other cynics point to everything that is owned by self-government being burdened by political interference, nepotistic appointments, poor management and an exodus of qualified staff. This line of criticism is often exaggerated, but not without merit.

[Deleted]

The five other bids on the airport project are all from NATO countries (two Danish, one Icelandic, one Canadian and one Dutch). 

Kalaallit Airports say the bids are chosen based on economic capacity, technical and professional competence and experience in working under Arctic weather conditions, and that politics hasn't weighed in.

In 2016 Denmark blocked the sale of the former naval station Grønnedal in Southern Greenland to a state owned Chinese company on request from the US government. The US is likely to see Chinese involvement in a major infrastructure project in Greenland as a violation of the 1951 treaty on the defence of Greenland.  

[Deleted]

Share of female candidates:

Atassut 15%
Nunatta Qitornai 20%
Naleraq 23%
Siumut 25% 

Cooperation Party 37.5%
Democrats 41% 
Inuit Ataqatigiit 45%

Clear split between the populist parties and the more "ideological".

[Khunanup]

Apr 12, 2018 11:18:55 GMT @vintris said:

Share of female candidates:

Atassut 15%
Nunatta Qitornai 20%
Cooperation Party 22%
Naleraq 23%
Siumut 25% 
Democrats 41% 
Inuit Ataqatigiit 45%

How does that compare to previous elections?

Is Greenlandic society any more notably patriarchal than its neighbours?

[Deleted]

Apr 12, 2018 12:35:53 GMT Khunanup said:

Apr 12, 2018 11:18:55 GMT @vintris said:

Share of female candidates: (...)

How does that compare to previous elections?

Is Greenlandic society any more notably patriarchal than its neighbours?

Roughly the same as last time IIRC. 

Its a bit mixed, the women are significantly better educated and they dominate the public sector, but that doesn't transfer to politics. The private sector is unsurprisingly male dominated given its based on fishing/shipping/construction etc. (more so than in Canada and Iceland). 

[Deleted]

HS Analyse poll conducted 11-15/4 with 25% still undecided. The Democrats gain two seats despite the Cooperation party getting in. IA lose one (but are "best losers"), Siumut lose two seats and Nunatta Qitornai only get one, which means either Vittus Q. or Hammond won't  get in. All in all a two seat net gain for the centre-right.  IA and the Democrats have a narrow majority and Sarah Olsvig have already said progressive income tax (their main disagreement) isn't an ultimate demand, so I would expect a return of the 2009-13 coalition on these numbers. 

Seats

Atassut 1 (-1)
Democrats 6 mandater (+2)
Inuit Ataqatigiit 10 mandater (-1)
Siumut 9 (-2)
Naleraq 3 (nc)
Nunatta Qitornai 1 (new)
Cooperation Party 1 (new)

Percentage of votes

Atassut 5.2 (-1.4)
Democrats 18.8 (+ 6.9)
Inuit Ataqatigiit 31.0 (- 2.5)
Naleraq 11.1 (- 0.6)
Siumut 27.4 (-7.3)
Nunatta Qitornai 3.6 (new)
Cooperation Party 2.9 (new)


HS Analyse has the following remarks to the poll:

Atassut: Doing best outside Nuuk and quite a few young voters are now also supporting the party.

Democrats: Gain from both Siumut and Inuit Ataqatigiit, but especially from first time voters, in-movers and non-voters.

Inuit Ataqatigiit: Lose votes in Nuuk, but this is partly made up of gains among Siumut voters in the rest of the country.

Naleraq: Are especially popular among fishers and hunters, where it gets more than a third of the vote, slightly ahead of Siumut.

Siumut: Have many faithfully voters that may return when they stand in the ballot box, but the decline has mostly happened in the final days and may accelerate further. (#analysis )

Nunatta Qitornai: Typically supported by men, and is overrepresented in the settlements. 

Cooperation Party: Get the final seat. Nearly all their voters are from Nuuk and either voted for the Democrats in 2014 or have moved to the country afterwards. Nearly all of them have an academic or other tertiary education.

So basically all Danes and the Greenlanders from the Danish speaking academic elite. If they lose the seat it will go to IA on the polling numbers.

[Deleted]

Vittus Q. wants to be keep the airports in Kangerlussuaq and Narsarsuaq open, not just for the locals but "for security and weather measuring purposes", after the establishment of the three new Atlantic airports.

He has claimed that could be financed by Greenland taking over the responsibility for monitoring its airspace (currently a realm matter and outsourced to Iceland and Canada), which would then give Greenland "billions" in fly-over fees, when the Greenlandic media pointed out the Chicago-conventionen and ICAO rules state that countries can only cover their expenses from monitoring the airspace and aren't allowed to profit from it he accused them of being biased against his party. He has been widely mocked on social media for his "sky billions".

[Deleted]

Looking back at the campaign its clear that the audience at the debates have had limited interest in independence and that the theme hasn't caught on this time - there seems to have been a clear desire for politicians to talk about "the real issues" and not use independence as a decoy, and a distrust of grand plans and quick fixes among especially young voters. Naleraq have seemingly not gained on their radical stance at the independence issue at all and is locked in as a fishing interests party, which is enough to secure them a place as the fourth party in Greenland, but not enough for a breakthrough.

Despite IA's (quite modest) progressive income tax proposal (only affecting people with an annual income above 1 mio. DKR, which is a lot in Greenland) the main divide has been between the populist parties and the non-populist, not left/right.

On fishing Siumut have proposed taking back the fishing quotas from its current owners in 5-years time and redistributing them to small boat owners. They have since moderated this and introduced a 10-years transitional phase, but its notable that IA says 15 years and agree with the Democrats that the fishing companies have a right to get their investments back and that planning and investments necessitate long term quota allocation with no risk of sudden recalls. The Cooperation Party have launched a proposal of introducing an auction model, similar to the (partially implemented) Faroese, which would crush the small fishermen but lead to a rationalization of the sector. Nunatta Q. have advocated support for the big fishing operations, which is in accordance with there plans for a fast track to independence, but likely to costs them voters in their natural strongholds in the far north.

Siumut have proposed solving the teacher shortage by lowering admission criteria to the Teacher Colleges both with regards to grades and getting in on "life experience". This would be an utter disaster as Greenland already has far too many unqualified teachers. The proposal has been heavily criticized by both the rectors of the Teachers Colleges, the Association of Greenlandic Employers and the teachers' union; with IA and the centre-right parties supporting them, notably Naleraq have stayed out of this. Siumut have also introduced a proposal of retirees as part time teachers assistants, which may be part of a compromise.

On taxes Siumut have countered the IA progressive tax proposal but launching a tax deduction of 10 points for low income wage earners to be implemented over five years, but its unclear how they will avoid it from being used by all wage earners, and its going to be very costly.

Siumut want to keep both the old Atlantic airports and build the three new ones, plus a road from Sisimiut to Kangerluusuaq. But infrastructure is an area where practically all the parties have been issuing unrealistic promises, though its notable that Siumut remain the most shamelessly populist on this issue.

In a last ditch effort to shore up support Naleraq have proposed a job guarantee within their chosen field for everyone who takes an education . 

The main trade union SIK have complained that a) every politician seem to think their pension fund should be used to develop the country rather than given the highest return to their members b) the politicians have proposed no solution to the structural imbalance with massive unemployment in some towns and labour shortages in others - where Chinese workers are being imported to man the fishing factories. SIK used to be a Siumut bulwark, but they have clearly distanced themselves from the party in recent years.

While Greenlandic politics often result in odd coalitions and an IA/Siumut grand coalition cannot be ruled out I think the general tenor of the campaign and her own priorities will convince Sarah Olsvig that she is better off making a deal with the Democrats and possibly one of the two small centre-right parties. Atassut have seemingly avoided elimination by fielding enough young candidates to escape their image as a pensioners' party and being all about job creation and a better business environment and that might actually lead them to support an IA/Democrats coalition.

Siumut have so far always gained from the last poll as the default option for many voters, and could very well finish first again, but this time they are competing with two splinter parties and have lost support among the younger generations.

[Deleted]

The "sky billion" farce continues. Vittus Q. now threatens to sue AG Sermitsiaq for libel because they pointed out international agreements prevent Greenland from collecting these untold billions in potential airspace fees. He claims the Danish company Naviair is already doing so.

[Deleted]

The polls are open 9pm to 8pm local time, which is UTC -2 in almost all of the country; Ittoqqortoormiit has UTC, but not the rest of the populated east coast, Qaanaaq has UTC -3. 

The weather prognosis is good: Calm weather with light clouds on the entire west coast with a bit of light snow on the central part; dry, sunny and calm on the east coast around Tasiilaq, dry, sunny but slightly more windy around Ittoqqortoormiit. So we should have a relatively high turnout and fast results. 

[matureleft]

Apr 24, 2018 7:46:30 GMT @vintris said:

The polls are open 9pm to 8pm local time, which is UTC -2 in almost all of the country; Ittoqqortoormiit has UTC, but not the rest of the populated east coast, Qaanaaq has UTC -3. 

The weather prognosis is good: Calm weather with light clouds on the entire west coast with a bit of light snow on the central part; dry, sunny and calm on the east coast around Tasiilaq, dry, sunny but slightly more windy around Ittoqqortoormiit. So we should have a relatively high turnout and fast results. 

It's been a fascinating and entertaining account of this campaign and its participants. Many thanks.

[Deleted]

Generelly lower turnout than in 2014 despite the weather, Greenlandic media say its due to the many parties confusing some voters.

Sermersooq municipality (Nuuk region + East Coast) had a 6% drop in its 3pm turnout compared to 2014.

[Deleted]

In five minutes the polls will close in Ittoqqortoormiit.

Results will be posted here: www.valg.gl

[Deleted]

Not directly relevant, but since I have talked about immigration: There are 970 foreign citizens in Greenland at the moment (so less than 2% of the population of ca. 56,000). The two biggest groups are Filipinos at 22% and Thais at 16%.

[Deleted]

KNR starts their electoral coverage at 8pm Nuuk time (in a little over an hour). Its in Greenlandic, but there will be numbers, graphs etc.

[Deleted]

Ittoqqortoormiit counted, but its probably too atypical to tell us much. Big Naleraq victory and Atassut wiped out.

With the 2018 results first.

A Atassut
3 1,6%
23 11,2%
-20 -9,6%

D Democrats
3 1,6%
1 0,5%
+2 +1,2%

IA Inuit Ataqatigiit
48 26,2%
71 34,6%
-23 -8,4%

NQ Nunatta Qitornai
2 1,1%
0 0,0%
+2 +1,1%

PN Partii Naleraq
59 32,2%
34 16,6%
+25 +15,7%

S Siumut
66 36,1%
69 33,7%
-3 2,4%

SA Cooperation Party
2 1,1%
0 0,0%
+2 +1,1%

[Deleted]

Still early, but it doesn't look like Nunatta Qitornai gets enough votes in the few settlements that have been counted (incl. one in the far north where they only got 4.4%).