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Post by frankyank on Aug 9, 2022 16:07:31 GMT
I voted! I supported the incumbents, as well as Mandela Barnes for Senate, Sara Rodriguez for Lieutenant Governor, and Aaron Richardson for Treasurer. The only Sauk County position Democrats have a candidate for is Sheriff, so I wrote in Russ Feingold for County Clerk of Courts and Herb Kohl for County Coroner. Does that mean you vote straight ticket Democrat regardless? It was a Democratic primary ballot.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 9, 2022 16:21:14 GMT
Does that mean you vote straight ticket Democrat regardless? It was a Democratic primary ballot. Yes indeed not sure what I was thinking there although I know some people vary which party they register to vote in primaries for?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 10, 2022 0:36:13 GMT
Before tonight’s Special Election and Primary results, some unfinished business, Jamie Herrera-Beutler concedes:
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 10, 2022 7:55:23 GMT
Dems did pretty decently in last nights special election in MN-01. This is a large rural, agricultural district in southern Minnesota, held from 2007-2019 by current governor Tim Walz (D) from 2007-2019. However, it swung hard right in recent years, giving Republicans one of their two against the grain gains in the 2018 mid-terms, and backing Trump by 15% in 2016 and 10% in 2020. Republican Brad Finstad currently looks on track to win by only about 4%.
In other news, Ilhan Omar barely squeaked through her primary in MN-05.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 10, 2022 8:29:00 GMT
Dems did pretty decently in last nights special election in MN-01. This is a large rural, agricultural district in southern Minnesota, held from 2007-2019 by current governor Tim Walz (D) from 2007-2019. However, it swung hard right in recent years, giving Republicans one of their two against the grain gains in the 2018 mid-terms, and backing Trump by 15% in 2016 and 10% in 2020. Republican Brad Finstad currently looks on track to win by only about 4%. In other news, Ilhan Omar barely squeaked through her primary in MN-05. The Democratic candidate in MN01 is the retired CEO of a local food company, Hornel Foods, and they will have a rematch on slightly redrawn boundaries in November for the full two year term.
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Post by frankyank on Aug 10, 2022 14:07:49 GMT
Between Nebraska’s 1st and Minnesota’s 1st, the special elections are pointing toward some noticeable post-Dobbs effect. Granted this is mostly due to increased enthusiasm by Democratic voters in these special elections, so whether it translates to better fortunes in November - when turnout will be higher across the board - remains to be seen. Both of these districts were won by Trump with double digit margins, so fairly close races are interesting. Next week there is the special election in Alaska, but the dynamics there, with RCV and Alaska’s general political weirdness, may obfuscate any trends we could glean from the results. But in two weeks there are special elections in New York’s nineteenth and twenty-third districts, with the former being a Democrat-vacated Trump-Biden district and the latter a Trump+11 district. New York State in general has more liberal attitudes toward abortion, partially due to higher rates of irreligion. These third and fourth data points in the post-Dobbs era, I assume, are going to be fairly interesting.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 16, 2022 16:41:52 GMT
Notable primaries tonight include ones for Liz Cheney and Lisa Murkowski
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 16, 2022 19:14:15 GMT
Notable primaries tonight include ones for Liz Cheney and Lisa Murkowski And the possible return of Sarah Palin (although we likely won’t know until next month as you’ve got until 31 August to return mail ballots before they start allocating the third place finisher’s preferences). Murkowski is in a top four go through primary so should be fine tonight, but it’ll be interesting to see the gap between her and Trump endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. I think even Liz Cheney has conceded she’s toast in Wyoming.
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Post by ibfc on Aug 17, 2022 3:30:17 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 17, 2022 3:40:49 GMT
As I suggested earlier, Liz Cheney has been annihilated in Wyoming, currently trailing 64-32 (rounded). A bit of trivia, Harriet Hageman will almost certainly become the fourth consecutive woman to represent Wyoming in the House. I wonder if Ms Cheney regrets declining to run for the open Senate seat in 2020 upon Mike Enzi’s retirement?
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Post by stb12 on Aug 17, 2022 7:43:46 GMT
As I suggested earlier, Liz Cheney has been annihilated in Wyoming, currently trailing 64-32 (rounded). A bit of trivia, Harriet Hageman will almost certainly become the fourth consecutive woman to represent Wyoming in the House. I wonder if Ms Cheney regrets declining to run for the open Senate seat in 2020 upon Mike Enzi’s retirement? Would have provided her with security until 2026 and who knows what Trump’s influence will be like by then. On the other hand it made sense at the time because she was very much on the rise in the House leadership and probably had designs on becoming the first GOP female speaker. The turn of events since Jan 6th has been quite something for her including McCarthy and co throwing her under the bus
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 17, 2022 8:00:57 GMT
As I suggested earlier, Liz Cheney has been annihilated in Wyoming, currently trailing 64-32 (rounded). A bit of trivia, Harriet Hageman will almost certainly become the fourth consecutive woman to represent Wyoming in the House. I wonder if Ms Cheney regrets declining to run for the open Senate seat in 2020 upon Mike Enzi’s retirement? Would have provided her with security until 2026 and who knows what Trump’s influence will be like by then. On the other hand it made sense at the time because she was very much on the rise in the House leadership and probably had designs on becoming the first GOP female speaker. The turn of events since Jan 6th has been quite something for her including McCarthy and co throwing her under the bus Oh I agree there’s a lot of 20/20 hindsight involved, but I think one of the biggest differences is that Senate leadership wouldn’t throw her under the bus as McCarthy has, evidenced by Murkowski, with Mcconnell’s support currently leading her primary with over 50% reporting. And obviously those extra four years would have been important as, even had he been re-elected in 2024, Trump would have been entering lame duck phase, with a maximum two years of active political life left.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 17, 2022 8:28:27 GMT
Would have provided her with security until 2026 and who knows what Trump’s influence will be like by then. On the other hand it made sense at the time because she was very much on the rise in the House leadership and probably had designs on becoming the first GOP female speaker. The turn of events since Jan 6th has been quite something for her including McCarthy and co throwing her under the bus Oh I agree there’s a lot of 20/20 hindsight involved, but I think one of the biggest differences is that Senate leadership wouldn’t throw her under the bus as McCarthy has, evidenced by Murkowski, with Mcconnell’s support currently leading her primary with over 50% reporting. And obviously those extra four years would have been important as, even had he been re-elected in 2024, Trump would have been entering lame duck phase, with a maximum two years of active political life left. All good points but Murkowski is likely going to be saved by Alaska’s new system. Any political analysis I’ve seen suggests she’d have been toast in the traditional Primary system even with the GOP senate leadership’s support; and I can’t imagine another write-in win would have been likely Not a bad thing though as voices that stand up to Trump will be scarce enough in the next House and Senate line-up
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 17, 2022 8:35:34 GMT
Oh I agree there’s a lot of 20/20 hindsight involved, but I think one of the biggest differences is that Senate leadership wouldn’t throw her under the bus as McCarthy has, evidenced by Murkowski, with Mcconnell’s support currently leading her primary with over 50% reporting. And obviously those extra four years would have been important as, even had he been re-elected in 2024, Trump would have been entering lame duck phase, with a maximum two years of active political life left. All good points but Murkowski is likely going to be saved by Alaska’s new system. Any political analysis I’ve seen suggests she’d have been toast in the traditional Primary system even with the GOP senate leadership’s support; and I can’t imagine another write-in win would have been likely Not a bad thing though as voices that stand up to Trump will be scarce enough in the next House and Senate line-up Not sure about Murkowski needing the ranked choice voting; since I typed the previous post they’ve added 10% to the reported vote (62% now) and she’s doubled her lead to 3200 votes, so if she finishes ahead of Tshibaka on first choice votes then it’s safe to say she’s won a traditional primary, and in most States would have eliminated Tshibaka who would only have made the general election in those States like Louisiana or California with jungle primaries.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 17, 2022 8:48:04 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Aug 17, 2022 8:53:28 GMT
All good points but Murkowski is likely going to be saved by Alaska’s new system. Any political analysis I’ve seen suggests she’d have been toast in the traditional Primary system even with the GOP senate leadership’s support; and I can’t imagine another write-in win would have been likely Not a bad thing though as voices that stand up to Trump will be scarce enough in the next House and Senate line-up Not sure about Murkowski needing the ranked choice voting; since I typed the previous post they’ve added 10% to the reported vote (62% now) and she’s doubled her lead to 3200 votes, so if she finishes ahead of Tshibaka on first choice votes then it’s safe to say she’s won a traditional primary, and in most States would have eliminated Tshibaka who would only have made the general election in those States like Louisiana or California with jungle primaries. Does it not all get a bit skewed by multiple candidates from different parties all appearing on the one ballot with anyone able to vote though? Although it is possible Trump’s influence doesn’t stretch so far in Alaska even though he won it twice
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Post by stb12 on Aug 17, 2022 8:58:14 GMT
Thune ain’t coming close to losing
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 17, 2022 9:28:27 GMT
Not sure about Murkowski needing the ranked choice voting; since I typed the previous post they’ve added 10% to the reported vote (62% now) and she’s doubled her lead to 3200 votes, so if she finishes ahead of Tshibaka on first choice votes then it’s safe to say she’s won a traditional primary, and in most States would have eliminated Tshibaka who would only have made the general election in those States like Louisiana or California with jungle primaries. Does it not all get a bit skewed by multiple candidates from different parties all appearing on the one ballot with anyone able to vote though? Although it is possible Trump’s influence doesn’t stretch so far in Alaska even though he won it twice Worth remembering that Trump had the smallest winning margin over a Democrat of any Republican presidential candidate since '92, and the second smallest since '68 while Biden won the highest vote share for a Democrat presidential candidate since LBJ won the state in '64. I don't suppose a loudmouthed, narcissistic metropolitan New Yorker with a holiday pad in Florida goes down as well in a place like Alaska compared to elsewhere...
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 17, 2022 10:17:57 GMT
All good points but Murkowski is likely going to be saved by Alaska’s new system. Any political analysis I’ve seen suggests she’d have been toast in the traditional Primary system even with the GOP senate leadership’s support; and I can’t imagine another write-in win would have been likely Not a bad thing though as voices that stand up to Trump will be scarce enough in the next House and Senate line-up Not sure about Murkowski needing the ranked choice voting; since I typed the previous post they’ve added 10% to the reported vote (62% now) and she’s doubled her lead to 3200 votes, so if she finishes ahead of Tshibaka on first choice votes then it’s safe to say she’s won a traditional primary, and in most States would have eliminated Tshibaka who would only have made the general election in those States like Louisiana or California with jungle primaries. It's pretty clear that Murkowski has comfortably won Democrats and Independents. I'd expect Democrats to tick up in later vote dumps (which are more postal) but at the moment they're only on about 8% combined. Murkowski looks to have done pretty reasonably with Republicans (maybe a third?) but would almost certainly have lost a traditional primary.
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 17, 2022 10:57:23 GMT
Not sure about Murkowski needing the ranked choice voting; since I typed the previous post they’ve added 10% to the reported vote (62% now) and she’s doubled her lead to 3200 votes, so if she finishes ahead of Tshibaka on first choice votes then it’s safe to say she’s won a traditional primary, and in most States would have eliminated Tshibaka who would only have made the general election in those States like Louisiana or California with jungle primaries. Does it not all get a bit skewed by multiple candidates from different parties all appearing on the one ballot with anyone able to vote though? Although it is possible Trump’s influence doesn’t stretch so far in Alaska even though he won it twice Not really, numerous States operate this initial system, Alaska is just unique in having the top four go through to a ranked choice run offaq, usually it’s just the top two, so Murkowski finishing close to Tshibaka in the top two should pretty much guarantee her reelection as, even without ranked choice voting in the run off she would likely pick up the majority of Democratic and Independent votes. The old system, with just the winner of each primary (as in Wyoming) progressing might have made life difficult for as it did six years ago, but there are so many different systems (top two go through as in Cali, needing 50% to avoid a run off as in Georgia or Mississippi (what saved the late Thad Cochran in his last election)), that she would almost certainly survive in most States systems.
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