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Post by bluelabour on May 18, 2022 10:26:39 GMT
In other primary news...
Doug Mastriano, state senator and Big Lie proponent, will be the GOP candidate for Pennsylvania governor, defeating 2018 Senate nominee Lou Barletta. He will face off against Democratic AG Josh Shapiro in the autumn, who starts off as slight favourite. In the Senate race, progressive rising star Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman demolished corporate-backed Rep Conor Lamb in the Democratic primary ~59-26. The GOP primary is still too close to call between moderate businessman David McCormick and Trump-backed TV physician Mehmet Oz, with the late surge of right-wing activist and suburban mom Kathy Barnette pulling up short. Pennsylvania is the Democrats best (probably only) realistic chance at a pickup in the Senate elections this year. No great shocks in the House primaries, though state Rep Summer Lee has taken a late lead against former Banking Commissioner Steve Irwin on the Democratic side in Pittsburgh-based PA-12 to replace retiring Mike Doyle. Irwin was the establishment favourite in the mould of Doyle, while Lee is an African-American woman who has the backing of the DSA and a history of upsetting corporate-backed incumbents.
In Kentucky, Rand Paul will face off against Charles Booker in the Senate race. State Senate minority leader Morgan McGarvey will likely replace the retiring Democrat John Yarmuth in Louisville's KY-3.
In North Carolina, Rep Ted Budd easily overcame former Gov Pat McCrory and former Rep Mark Walker ~59-25-9, with Trump's backing and a late surge in spending. He will face off against the former Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court, Cheri Beasley, in the general election. State Sen Don Davis will be favourite to replace G. K. Butterfield in NC-1, based in the rural Black Belt, though second-time GOP candidate Sandy Smith will hope to make the seat competitive for the first time. In heavily Democratic Durham-based NC-4, State Sen Valerie Foushee defeats progressive-backed County Commissioner Nida Allam for the slot to replace retiring David Price. As mentioned upthread, controversial incumbent Madison Cawthorn has been narrowly defeated in NC-11 by State Sen Chuck Edwards, who ran up an early lead in urban Asheville and Hendersonville. Perhaps surprisingly, Cawthorn has readily conceded. In the new NC-13, based in the swingy southern Raleigh suburbs, former college football player Bo Hines will have a shot at becoming the youngest member of Congress after winning the Republican primary (he'll hope to have a slightly more illustrious career than the similarly youthful Cawthorn). He will face off against state sen Wiley Nickel in what will surely be the most hotly-contested district in the state this autumn. Finally, state senator and losing 2018 Senate candidate Jeff Jackson has won the Democratic primary in the new NC-14, a district which resulted from the splitting of deep-blue Charlotte. He will win in November, but whether the seat survives GOP gerrymandering attempts over the next decade is another question.
Idaho was a bit of a non-event. Incumbents Governor Brad Little and Rep Mike Simpson were challenged to their right, but won with ease. Former Rep Raúl Labrador, a one-time Tea Party favourite, challenges the 5-time incumbent Attorney General Lawrence Wasden, and holds a small lead at present.
Finally, Oregon was host to several competitive races. OR-4, which includes Eugene and Corvallis, chooses Labour commissioner Val Hoyle to replace the retiring progressive Rep Peter DeFazio. The GOP have a strong candidate in National Guard soldier Alek Skarlatos, who held DeFazio to a 51-46 result last time and will hope to improve on that margin. In what is shaping up to be one of the most sensational results of the night, Kurt Schrader, a Blue Dog backed by extensive last minute spending by AIPAC, is losing heavily to progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner in OR-5. Republicans will claim that this makes the Bend-based district a tossup, though they don't seem to have any particularly strong candidates in their primary. In the state's newest district, centred around Salem, OR-6 looks to have elected state rep Andrea Salinas over Carrick Flynn, who benefitted from a glut of spending by the cryptocurrency industry. Finally, the gubernatorial election will be an all-female affair between Tina Kotek and Christine Drazan. The Democrat Kotek is the former Speaker of the State House and beat back State Treasurer Tobias Read, whilst Drazan formerly lead the Republican delegation in that institution.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 18, 2022 11:02:33 GMT
In other primary news... Doug Mastriano, state senator and Big Lie proponent, will be the GOP candidate for Pennsylvania governor, defeating 2018 Senate nominee Lou Barletta. He will face off against Democratic AG Josh Shapiro in the autumn, who starts off as slight favourite. In the Senate race, progressive rising star Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman demolished corporate-backed Rep Conor Lamb in the Democratic primary ~59-26. The GOP primary is still too close to call between moderate businessman David McCormick and Trump-backed TV physician Mehmet Oz, with the late surge of right-wing activist and suburban mom Kathy Barnette pulling up short. Pennsylvania is the Democrats best (probably only) realistic chance at a pickup in the Senate elections this year. No great shocks in the House primaries, though state Rep Summer Lee has taken a late lead against former Banking Commissioner Steve Irwin on the Democratic side in Pittsburgh-based PA-12 to replace retiring Mike Doyle. Irwin was the establishment favourite in the mould of Doyle, while Lee is an African-American woman who has the backing of the DSA and a history of upsetting corporate-backed incumbents. In Kentucky, Rand Paul will face off against Charles Booker in the Senate race. State Senate minority leader Morgan McGarvey will likely replace the retiring Democrat John Yarmuth in Louisville's KY-3. In North Carolina, Rep Ted Budd easily overcame former Gov Pat McCrory and former Rep Mark Walker ~59-25-9, with Trump's backing and a late surge in spending. He will face off against the former Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court, Cheri Beasley, in the general election. State Sen Don Davis will be favourite to replace G. K. Butterfield in NC-1, based in the rural Black Belt, though second-time GOP candidate Sandy Smith will hope to make the seat competitive for the first time. In heavily Democratic Durham-based NC-4, State Sen Valerie Foushee defeats progressive-backed County Commissioner Nida Allam for the slot to replace retiring David Price. As mentioned upthread, controversial incumbent Madison Cawthorn has been narrowly defeated in NC-11 by State Sen Chuck Edwards, who ran up an early lead in urban Asheville and Hendersonville. Perhaps surprisingly, Cawthorn has readily conceded. In the new NC-13, based in the swingy southern Raleigh suburbs, former college football player Bo Hines will have a shot at becoming the youngest member of Congress after winning the Republican primary (he'll hope to have a slightly more illustrious career than the similarly youthful Cawthorn). He will face off against state sen Wiley Nickel in what will surely be the most hotly-contested district in the state this autumn. Finally, state senator and losing 2018 Senate candidate Jeff Jackson has won the Democratic primary in the new NC-14, a district which resulted from the splitting of deep-blue Charlotte. He will win in November, but whether the seat survives GOP gerrymandering attempts over the next decade is another question. Idaho was a bit of a non-event. Incumbents Governor Brad Little and Rep Mike Simpson were challenged to their right, but won with ease. Former Rep Raúl Labrador, a one-time Tea Party favourite, challenges the 5-time incumbent Attorney General Art Macomber, and holds a small lead at present. Finally, Oregon was host to several competitive races. OR-4, which includes Eugene and Corvallis, chooses Labour commissioner Val Hoyle to replace the retiring progressive Rep Peter DeFazio. The GOP have a strong candidate in National Guard soldier Alek Skarlatos, who held DeFazio to a 51-46 result last time and will hope to improve on that margin. In what is shaping up to be one of the most sensational results of the night, Kurt Schrader, a Blue Dog backed by extensive last minute spending by AIPAC, is losing heavily to progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner in OR-5. Republicans will claim that this makes the Bend-based district a tossup, though they don't seem to have any particularly strong candidates in their primary. In the state's newest district, centred around Salem, OR-6 looks to have elected state rep Andrea Salinas over Carrick Flynn, who benefitted from a glut of spending by the cryptocurrency industry. Finally, the gubernatorial election will be an all-female affair between Tina Kotek and Christine Drazan. The Democrat Kotek is the former Speaker of the State House and beat back State Treasurer Tobias Read, whilst Drazan formerly lead the Republican delegation in that institution. Worth noting that Fetterman had a stroke at the weekend and was unable to be at his post-primary party. In the Lee-Irwin race, as in the GOP Senate primary, the top two at writing are within the 0.5% automatic recount margin. In Oregon Shrader’s race remains uncalled, with one County only reporting 4% of its total as of typing, and a second County yet to report anything in either the Democratic or Republican primaries.
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Post by rcronald on May 18, 2022 12:01:03 GMT
In other primary news... Doug Mastriano, state senator and Big Lie proponent, will be the GOP candidate for Pennsylvania governor, defeating 2018 Senate nominee Lou Barletta. He will face off against Democratic AG Josh Shapiro in the autumn, who starts off as slight favourite. In the Senate race, progressive rising star Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman demolished corporate-backed Rep Conor Lamb in the Democratic primary ~59-26. The GOP primary is still too close to call between moderate businessman David McCormick and Trump-backed TV physician Mehmet Oz, with the late surge of right-wing activist and suburban mom Kathy Barnette pulling up short. Pennsylvania is the Democrats best (probably only) realistic chance at a pickup in the Senate elections this year. No great shocks in the House primaries, though state Rep Summer Lee has taken a late lead against former Banking Commissioner Steve Irwin on the Democratic side in Pittsburgh-based PA-12 to replace retiring Mike Doyle. Irwin was the establishment favourite in the mould of Doyle, while Lee is an African-American woman who has the backing of the DSA and a history of upsetting corporate-backed incumbents. In Kentucky, Rand Paul will face off against Charles Booker in the Senate race. State Senate minority leader Morgan McGarvey will likely replace the retiring Democrat John Yarmuth in Louisville's KY-3. In North Carolina, Rep Ted Budd easily overcame former Gov Pat McCrory and former Rep Mark Walker ~59-25-9, with Trump's backing and a late surge in spending. He will face off against the former Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court, Cheri Beasley, in the general election. State Sen Don Davis will be favourite to replace G. K. Butterfield in NC-1, based in the rural Black Belt, though second-time GOP candidate Sandy Smith will hope to make the seat competitive for the first time. In heavily Democratic Durham-based NC-4, State Sen Valerie Foushee defeats progressive-backed County Commissioner Nida Allam for the slot to replace retiring David Price. As mentioned upthread, controversial incumbent Madison Cawthorn has been narrowly defeated in NC-11 by State Sen Chuck Edwards, who ran up an early lead in urban Asheville and Hendersonville. Perhaps surprisingly, Cawthorn has readily conceded. In the new NC-13, based in the swingy southern Raleigh suburbs, former college football player Bo Hines will have a shot at becoming the youngest member of Congress after winning the Republican primary (he'll hope to have a slightly more illustrious career than the similarly youthful Cawthorn). He will face off against state sen Wiley Nickel in what will surely be the most hotly-contested district in the state this autumn. Finally, state senator and losing 2018 Senate candidate Jeff Jackson has won the Democratic primary in the new NC-14, a district which resulted from the splitting of deep-blue Charlotte. He will win in November, but whether the seat survives GOP gerrymandering attempts over the next decade is another question. Idaho was a bit of a non-event. Incumbents Governor Brad Little and Rep Mike Simpson were challenged to their right, but won with ease. Former Rep Raúl Labrador, a one-time Tea Party favourite, challenges the 5-time incumbent Attorney General Art Macomber, and holds a small lead at present. Finally, Oregon was host to several competitive races. OR-4, which includes Eugene and Corvallis, chooses Labour commissioner Val Hoyle to replace the retiring progressive Rep Peter DeFazio. The GOP have a strong candidate in National Guard soldier Alek Skarlatos, who held DeFazio to a 51-46 result last time and will hope to improve on that margin. In what is shaping up to be one of the most sensational results of the night, Kurt Schrader, a Blue Dog backed by extensive last minute spending by AIPAC, is losing heavily to progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner in OR-5. Republicans will claim that this makes the Bend-based district a tossup, though they don't seem to have any particularly strong candidates in their primary. In the state's newest district, centred around Salem, OR-6 looks to have elected state rep Andrea Salinas over Carrick Flynn, who benefitted from a glut of spending by the cryptocurrency industry. Finally, the gubernatorial election will be an all-female affair between Tina Kotek and Christine Drazan. The Democrat Kotek is the former Speaker of the State House and beat back State Treasurer Tobias Read, whilst Drazan formerly lead the Republican delegation in that institution. I mostly agree, but Chavez (the GOP candidate in OR-5) is actually considered to be a strong candidate.
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Post by rcronald on May 18, 2022 12:40:51 GMT
Dems are losing by 8% in the generic house ballot according to their own internals
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 18, 2022 12:46:02 GMT
Cawthorn has been defeated Great shame As some are saying, MTG next.
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Post by rcronald on May 18, 2022 14:04:03 GMT
Cawthorn has been defeated Great shame As some are saying, MTG next. Unfortunately, I think MTG wins.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 19, 2022 1:38:22 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 19, 2022 7:04:21 GMT
Should be noted that most polls at the moment (CNN,FOX,Monmouth,Emerson, Quinnipiac) and Party internals (GOP and Dem) have the GOP leading by at least 5%, YouGov and Morning Consultant are tanking the average.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on May 19, 2022 12:34:23 GMT
State Legislature Special Elections
May 3rd
Michigan House District 15 Resignation of Democrat Abdullah Hammoud resigned from the state House in December 2021 after being elected mayor of Dearborn.
Jeffrey Pepper Democrat 4,628 72.5% Ginger Shearer (R) 1,748 27.4% Other/Write-in votes 5 0.1%
Democrat Hold
Michigan House District 36 Resignation of Republican Douglas Wozniak upon election to the Michigan State Senate.
Terence Mekoski Republican 7,834 59.6% James Diez Democrat 5,316 40.4%
Republican Hold
Michigan House District 43 Death of Republican Andrea Schroeder.
Mike R. Harris Republican 7,583 56.5% Kent Douglas Democrat 5,799 43.2% Other/Write-in votes 35 0.3%
Michigan House District 74 Resignation of Republican Mark Huizenga upon election to the Michigan State Senate.[/i]
Carol Glanville Democrat 7,288 51.7% Robert Regan Republican 5,697 40.4%
Democrat Gain
May 7th
Texas House District 38 Resignation of Democrat Eddie Lucio III.
Erin Gamez Democrat elected unopposed.
Texas House District 147 Resignation of Democrat Garnet Coleman.
Jolanda Jones Democrat 2,305 52.3% Danielle Keys Bess Democrat 2,103 47.7%
Democrat Hold
May 17th
Pennsylvania State Senate District 5 Resignation of Democrat John Sabatina Jr to become a judge.
Jimmy Dillon Democrat 14,631 54.0% Sam Oropeza Republican 12,486 46.0%
Democrat Hold
South Carolina House District 97 Resignation of Republican Mandy Kimmons.
Robby Robbins Republican 1,511 63.4% ReZsaun Lewis Democrat 862 36.2% Other/Write-in votes 10 0.4%
Republican Hold
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 24, 2022 22:32:11 GMT
Although not formally called because of a major cock-up in the ballot paper printing in Clackmanas County, there now seems a consensus that moderate Democratic Representative Kurt Schrader has lost his primary to Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a result that, when/if confirmed will likely tilt that seat towards the Republicans.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 25, 2022 1:08:13 GMT
In early results tonight Trump endorsed former Senator, David Purdue, has been utterly crushed by incumbent Brian Kemp in the GOP primary for Georgia governor; the AP have called the primary with Kemp leading 72.7-22.7 with 33% of precincts reporting. That race will be a rematch of four years ago, Kemp facing Stacy Abrams.
Success for Trump in the Senate primary where former Dallas Cowboys and University of Georgia Bulldog running back Herschel Walker has easily won his primary and will face Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock in what may be the first time both parties have nominated an African American candidate for the same race.
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Post by matureleft on May 25, 2022 5:12:26 GMT
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Max
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Post by Max on May 25, 2022 10:18:51 GMT
In early results tonight Trump endorsed former Senator, David Purdue, has been utterly crushed by incumbent Brian Kemp in the GOP primary for Georgia governor; the AP have called the primary with Kemp leading 72.7-22.7 with 33% of precincts reporting. That race will be a rematch of four years ago, Kemp facing Stacy Abrams. Success for Trump in the Senate primary where former Dallas Cowboys and University of Georgia Bulldog running back Herschel Walker has easily won his primary and will face Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock in what may be the first time both parties have nominated an African American candidate for the same race. Assuming you mean nationally, I think that Tim Scott's Democratic opponents have been African Americans.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 25, 2022 10:23:30 GMT
In early results tonight Trump endorsed former Senator, David Purdue, has been utterly crushed by incumbent Brian Kemp in the GOP primary for Georgia governor; the AP have called the primary with Kemp leading 72.7-22.7 with 33% of precincts reporting. That race will be a rematch of four years ago, Kemp facing Stacy Abrams. Success for Trump in the Senate primary where former Dallas Cowboys and University of Georgia Bulldog running back Herschel Walker has easily won his primary and will face Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock in what may be the first time both parties have nominated an African American candidate for the same race. Assuming you mean nationally, I think that Tim Scott's Democratic opponents have been African Americans. I meant in Georgia, sorry
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Post by thinwhiteduke on May 27, 2022 12:35:49 GMT
George P. Bush got crushed in the Texas Attorney General GOP primary by the Trump endorsed incumbent Ken Paxton, who has been consistently involved in controversy including being indicted for fraud charges.
Ken Paxton 68% - 631,581 George P. Bush 32% - 297,479
He was expected to lose, but I doubt anyone could have predicted this margin.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 3, 2022 13:31:53 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 3, 2022 23:35:53 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 3, 2022 23:38:09 GMT
If you told someone 20 years ago, that potentially the first Muslim to serve in the US Senate would be a Republican. Hard to believe.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2022 11:01:27 GMT
If you told someone 20 years ago, that potentially the first Muslim to serve in the US Senate would be a Republican. Hard to believe. Perhaps it could’ve been the Democrats in that position had bed-blockers like Bernie Sanders not been in the way
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2022 11:05:04 GMT
So he is officially a Democrat now?
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