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Post by MacShimidh on Oct 12, 2021 21:25:47 GMT
John Yarmuth, Democratic Representative for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District based around Louisville, has announced he will not run for a ninth term in 2022.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 12, 2021 21:50:04 GMT
John Yarmuth, Democratic Representative for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District based around Louisville, has announced he will not run for a ninth term in 2022. He is the Chairman of House Budget Committee, potential factors in his decision include 1. He is 73. 2. He faces a primary challenge from his left. 3. He could be gerrymandered out because while Louisville has swung the the left it is surrounded by ruby red territory and can be cracked with ease. 4. He expects the Democrats to be in the minority after 2022.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 12, 2021 22:02:35 GMT
John Yarmuth, Democratic Representative for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District based around Louisville, has announced he will not run for a ninth term in 2022. He is the Chairman of House Budget Committee, potential factors in his decision include 1. He is 73. 2. He faces a primary challenge from his left. 3. He could be gerrymandered out because while Louisville has swung the the left it is surrounded by ruby red territory and can be cracked with ease. 4. He expects the Democrats to be in the minority after 2022. According to Politico Kentucky Republicans had previously been adamant that they would leave his District intact, so 3’s probably not a factor. He’s hinted at “health challenges as I get older” in his statement, whilst stressing he’s “currently in excellent health” - maybe a false alarm has caused a rethink? Morgan McGarvey, Leader of the Democrats in the State Senate, and described as a “close friend” announcemed he’d be running to succeed Yarmuth within 10 minutes of the announcement, suggesting an element of coordination.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 12, 2021 22:04:53 GMT
John Yarmuth, Democratic Representative for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District based around Louisville, has announced he will not run for a ninth term in 2022. He is the Chairman of House Budget Committee, potential factors in his decision include 1. He is 73. 2. He faces a primary challenge from his left. 3. He could be gerrymandered out because while Louisville has swung the the left it is surrounded by ruby red territory and can be cracked with ease. 4. He expects the Democrats to be in the minority after 2022. 3 isn't possible as current state law prohibit it and the governor is Democrat.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 12, 2021 23:43:13 GMT
He is the Chairman of House Budget Committee, potential factors in his decision include 1. He is 73. 2. He faces a primary challenge from his left. 3. He could be gerrymandered out because while Louisville has swung the the left it is surrounded by ruby red territory and can be cracked with ease. 4. He expects the Democrats to be in the minority after 2022. 3 isn't possible as current state law prohibit it and the governor is Democrat. The GOP have veto proof majorities in both chambers of the Kentucky legislature and the guidelines against splitting counties are only advisory.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 14, 2021 16:50:07 GMT
Who was the last statewide elected official to switch parties - West Virginia Governor Jim Justice? According to Daily Kos Elections the last was New Mexico Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, who left the Republicans to become a Libertarian in order to run for Senate in 2018 but dropped out when Gary Johnson joined the race, and the last Republican to Democrat switcher was Nebraska Auditor Kate Witek who lost re-election after switching in 2006. Charlie Crist: One time Republican Governor of Floria (2007-2011), now Democratic Congressman (2017-)?
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Post by stb12 on Oct 14, 2021 18:16:45 GMT
According to Daily Kos Elections the last was New Mexico Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, who left the Republicans to become a Libertarian in order to run for Senate in 2018 but dropped out when Gary Johnson joined the race, and the last Republican to Democrat switcher was Nebraska Auditor Kate Witek who lost re-election after switching in 2006. Charlie Crist: One time Republican Governor of Floria (2007-2011), now Democratic Congressman (2017-)? Think the idea is them being in office at the time of the defection and I don’t think Crist was
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 14, 2021 18:31:10 GMT
Charlie Crist: One time Republican Governor of Floria (2007-2011), now Democratic Congressman (2017-)? Think the idea is them being in office at the time of the defection and I don’t think Crist was He became first an Independent and then a Democrat in 2012. That is flagged up the first post on the US Politics thread of this site.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 14, 2021 19:15:46 GMT
Charlie Crist: One time Republican Governor of Floria (2007-2011), now Democratic Congressman (2017-)? Think the idea is them being in office at the time of the defection and I don’t think Crist was I think the stop off as an Independent is why Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island doesn’t count, as he arguably only became a Democrat to try and prevent a three way race for his gubernatorial re-election (in vain as he opted not to run anyway seeing no path to victory). Incidentally I’d missed him switching to the Libertarian Party in 2019.
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Post by stb12 on Oct 14, 2021 19:22:46 GMT
Think the idea is them being in office at the time of the defection and I don’t think Crist was I think the stop off as an Independent is why Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island doesn’t count, as he arguably only became a Democrat to try and prevent a three way race for his gubernatorial re-election (in vain as he opted not to run anyway seeing no path to victory). Incidentally I’d missed him switching to the Libertarian Party in 2019. Remember reading he was going for the Libertarian presidential nomination but obviously never came to anything
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2021 14:43:41 GMT
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 15, 2021 15:26:42 GMT
No Primary until 2023, so she won't be losing too much sleep.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2021 17:39:46 GMT
I don’t know what the Dems are on if they think they would win AZ with Gallego…..
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 15, 2021 18:04:57 GMT
I don’t know what the Dems are on if they think they would win AZ with Gallego….. Well, they are certainly not winning it with Sinema, given most of the party would not vote for her.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2021 18:26:07 GMT
I don’t know what the Dems are on if they think they would win AZ with Gallego….. Well, they are certainly not winning it with Sinema, given most of the party would not vote for her. The Dems might not like Sinema (or Kelly) but they are not going to win a state wide race in AZ with a progressive……
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 15, 2021 18:45:11 GMT
Well, they are certainly not winning it with Sinema, given most of the party would not vote for her. The Dems might not like Sinema (or Kelly) but they are not going to win a state wide race in AZ with a progressive…… The Democrats are fine with Kelly. The problem with Sinema is her opposition to the Biden policies and being even more right-wing than Manchin. This shouldn't be difficult to find a centrist willing to primary her.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2021 18:52:25 GMT
The Dems might not like Sinema (or Kelly) but they are not going to win a state wide race in AZ with a progressive…… The Democrats are fine with Kelly. The problem with Sinema is her opposition to the Biden policies and being even more right-wing than Manchin. This shouldn't be difficult to find a centrist willing to primary her. If they find a centrist to primary her (an actual centrist like Kelly and not a centrist in name only like most of the NDC) then they are going to be fine, I was talking about specifically Gallego who is definitely not a centrist.
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Post by MacShimidh on Oct 18, 2021 19:10:08 GMT
David Price, the Democratic representative for North Carolina's 4th congressional district, has announced he won't stand for re-election next year.
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Post by MacShimidh on Oct 18, 2021 19:28:58 GMT
...and just off the back of that, Mike Doyle, Democratic representative for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district, has also announced he won't stand again in 2022.
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Post by stb12 on Oct 18, 2021 20:01:05 GMT
Always think long term House members must get a bit tired of election cycles every two years
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