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Post by seanryanj on Jul 6, 2020 19:44:41 GMT
MESenate: Gideon (D) 46% (+4) Collins (R-inc) 42% PPP 7/2-3 I am changing my rating for this race from Concerned to Deeply Troubled. Collins has a difficult one here! She lost her moderate halo with her votes she will be asked the question who will vote for in prez election? Trump and she loses her likely moderate voters, Not Trump she loses her diehard Trump supporters. I don't think she will hold on as the dump trump vote will be very motivated while the trump supporter might think time to get rid of her anyway you can't trust her! One to really watch !
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 6, 2020 19:56:46 GMT
MESenate: Gideon (D) 46% (+4) Collins (R-inc) 42% PPP 7/2-3 The associated presidential figures were Biden 52%, Trump 41%, so it’s pretty worrying for Collins as a supposedly strong incumbent that she’s basically running level with Trump. I still think Collins could win, but she either needs to remind people why they elected her in the past, or Trump needs to greatly improve in popularity.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 7, 2020 0:52:07 GMT
A race call from Utah where Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox has defeated former Governor Jon Huntsman in the Republican primary to succeed term limited incumbent Gary Herbert. Cox will almost certainly win in November, it’s 35 years since Utah last elected a Democratic Governor.
This was quite convoluted; Huntsman resigned midway through his second term to serve as Obama’s Ambassador to China and was succeeded by his Lieutenant Governor, Herbert. Huntsman quit the China job to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, finishing third in New Hampshire but quitting before South Carolina. Trump then appointed him Ambassador to Russia, from which he resigned to run again for Governor. This year Herbert has shunned his former running mate and endorsed Cox.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 8, 2020 11:23:04 GMT
Party switcher Jeff Van Drew very easily won his primary in New Jersey 2nd. He will face Amy Kennedy (yes, an actual Kennedy) in November.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2020 11:45:02 GMT
Party switcher Jeff Van Drew very easily won his primary in New Jersey 2nd. He will face Amy Kennedy (yes, an actual Kennedy) in November. Only a Kennedy by marriage, she’s the wife of former Rhode Island congressman Patrick. However it does open the possibility of one in both chambers for the first time since 2011 if Joseph unseats Ed Markey in the Massachusetts Senate primary.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 8, 2020 15:47:02 GMT
The Texas Republican Party ain't big enough for the two of 'em. I think this is a rivalry to watch - could Cruz be vulnerable to a primary challenge?
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 8, 2020 18:12:59 GMT
The Texas Republican Party ain't big enough for the two of 'em. I think this is a rivalry to watch - could Cruz be vulnerable to a primary challenge? As things stand, I assume Crenshaw would easily beat Cruz in a hypothetical 2024 Senate primary. He just fits the Republican ideal better - a wounded Navy SEAL with extensive foreign policy experience. His politics are also better suited to today's Republican party - he's one of the few Republicans who has managed to paint himself as an intellectual Trump loyalist whilst distancing himself from the more insane parts of his presidency. His biggest problem at the moment though will be winning back his not-totally safe district this November, but I assume he will get a safer one when redistricting rolls round. Cruz, meanwhile, has seen his star totally fizzle out since 2016, and plenty in Trumpworld have never forgiven him for being the anti-Trump standard bearer in 2016. More recently, even though he beat O'Rourke in 2018, the election was widely seen as a laughable disaster and even though it was a Dem year it should never have been that close. His more libertarian politics are also way out of kilter within the modern party. The only thing in his favour is the fact that 2024 is a long way away and he has an opportunity to redefine the post-Trump GOP in his image (though whether anyone would listen to him is an open question).
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 8, 2020 18:17:30 GMT
NJ02 : Jeff Van Drew (R): 47% Amy Kennedy (D): 44%
President Trump: 46% Joe Biden: 45%
6/30-7/30, DCCC internal.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 8, 2020 18:24:46 GMT
NJ02 : Jeff Van Drew (R): 47% Amy Kennedy (D): 44% President Trump: 46% Joe Biden: 45% 6/30-7/30, DCCC internal. Behind in a DCCC internal? Looks like the CIA can rest easy knowing the voters probably have this Kennedy's career taken care of.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2020 19:21:27 GMT
NJ02 : Jeff Van Drew (R): 47% Amy Kennedy (D): 44% President Trump: 46% Joe Biden: 45% 6/30-7/30, DCCC internal. Behind in a DCCC internal? Looks like the CIA can rest easy knowing the voters probably have this Kennedy's career taken care of. Leaked DCCC internal = fundraising email to “help us beat Van Drew”. Guess is it would’ve said exactly the same if Harrison had won last night.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 8, 2020 19:28:11 GMT
Behind in a DCCC internal? Looks like the CIA can rest easy knowing the voters probably have this Kennedy's career taken care of. Leaked DCCC internal = fundraising email to “help us beat Van Drew”. Guess is it would’ve said exactly the same if Harrison had won last night. If a candidate is behind in their own GE internals, it's a dire sign. I agree it's good strategy to massage the data to suggest a close race if you want to boost fundraising numbers, but usually that means having your candidate slightly ahead. The track record for candidates who admit they are trailing is poor.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 9, 2020 12:32:52 GMT
Meanwhile the in the Banana Republic of New York we still await the counting of thousands of absentee ballots 16 days after the election and over a week after the deadline for receiving absentee ballots.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 9, 2020 14:11:22 GMT
Alaska Senate GE: Dan Sullivan (R-inc) 39% Al Gross (I) 34%
AK01: Alyse Galvin (I) 43% Don Young (R-inc) 41%
PPP.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 9, 2020 14:21:10 GMT
Alaska Senate GE: Dan Sullivan (R-inc) 39% Al Gross (I) 34% AK01: Alyse Galvin (I) 43% Don Young (R-inc) 41% PPP. I've written a bit more about this in the Alaska thread, but I think Gross is underperforming in this poll primarily because of lower name ID and a reluctant from Dem-leaning voters to back someone they assume is a pure independent (hence the higher number of undecided voters). Amongst people aware of his candidacy, he is beating Sullivan by 20% and I'd still give him better odds than Galvin.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 9, 2020 14:27:33 GMT
Alaska Senate GE: Dan Sullivan (R-inc) 39% Al Gross (I) 34% AK01: Alyse Galvin (I) 43% Don Young (R-inc) 41% PPP. I've written a bit more about this in the Alaska thread, but I think Gross is underperforming in this poll primarily because of lower name ID and a reluctant from Dem-leaning voters to back someone they assume is a pure independent (hence the higher number of undecided voters). Amongst people aware of his candidacy, he is beating Sullivan by 20% and I'd still give him better odds than Galvin. Agreed.. PPP made it clear that the majority of undecideds in the house race, are Trump voters who will likely come home on election day.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2020 14:50:29 GMT
NJ02 : Jeff Van Drew (R): 47% Amy Kennedy (D): 44% President Trump: 46% Joe Biden: 45% 6/30-7/30, DCCC internal. Trump ahead in Noo Joisey. Yes. Of course. What else ......
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 9, 2020 14:53:44 GMT
NJ02 : Jeff Van Drew (R): 47% Amy Kennedy (D): 44% President Trump: 46% Joe Biden: 45% 6/30-7/30, DCCC internal. Trump ahead in Noo Joisey. Yes. Of course. What else ...... Only in that particular district, which isn't surprising as he won it in 2016 while losing by a wide margin statewide.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2020 14:55:43 GMT
Trump ahead in Noo Joisey. Yes. Of course. What else ...... Only in that particular district, which isn't surprising as he won it in 2016 while losing by a wide margin statewide. Thanks ! Misunderstood that !
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 9, 2020 15:17:39 GMT
Trump ahead in Noo Joisey. Yes. Of course. What else ...... Only in that particular district, which isn't surprising as he won it in 2016 while losing by a wide margin statewide. Not that much in New Jersey is particularly significant Presidential wise, but Trump carried this District by 5% in 2016, so this poll would indicate a loss of support. Not relevant to his chances but if it percolates downballot it could hurt people like Van Drew or help freshmen Democrats such as Andy Kim and Josh Gottheimer.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 10, 2020 14:14:42 GMT
Paging BossManCould we have a poll on whether to change the name of the 'US presidential election 2020' board to 'US elections 2020' board? The presidential polls at the top of each thread are fine, but state threads are convenient places to discuss non-presidential, in-state contests that often get overlooked or split between those threads and this one.
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