El Salvador

[Georg Ebner]

The parliament was elected yesterday, counting is going on (~72% done).

ARENA are apparently ahead.

[Georg Ebner]

Presidential elections happened recently, ending in a large victory of "LatinAmerica's Macron", Bukele (the exFMLN-mayor of SanSalvador, officially nominated by GANA [exARENA]):

[The Bishop]

An absolutely calamitous result for the FMLN who have squandered their previous political capital dramatically in the past few years.

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 14, 2019 11:21:20 GMT The Bishop said:

An absolutely calamitous result for the FMLN who have squandered their previous political capital dramatically in the past few years.

Indeed - very French, the situation.
They will probably continue governing (what could result into ARENA falling apart; or - on the other hand - be FMLN's final end, of course).

[Georg Ebner]

As the local elections in my own country (Carinthia) will occupy me tomorrow, i point already today to this country's parliamentary election.
Which is overshadowed by the president, who is playing successfully caudillo - another retreat (at least temporarily) for the liberal mulii-party democracy of the (North)Western World. OpinionPolls indicate, that - as in Mexico - the president's vehicle ("NuevasIdeas") and allies (GANA plus others) will absorb the old-fashioned left FMLN (like PRI) quite entirely and only the minority of rightliberal urban plutocrats - the perfect bogeyman - will stick at their ARENA/PAN.

[Georg Ebner]

Not much more than 50% seem to be counted, but the presidential party is on track to a SuperMajority.

[Georg Ebner]

96% is counted and the president's party alone will get 2/3 of seats, second being its ally GANA aso.:

app-div2021-eastus-web-02.azurewebsites.net/asamblea-legislativa/1438

[Georg Ebner]

2018:

2021:

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

For comparison You can find maps of the presidential race 2019 above.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Bukele has stepped aside from the Presidency for six months so he can run for re-election. This is technically illegal, but it has been approved by the legislative assembly.

[The Bishop]

Looks like he is going to be resoundingly re-elected too. Whatever you think of how they govern, he is incredibly popular.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

The election was yesterday, and Bukele has won easily. The exit polls show around 87%. The communists are said to be circa 7% and the ARENA conservatives 4%. He has also crushed it in the parliamentary elections, and looks like he'll win almost all the seats. Total Bukele victory, and a sign, despite everything, of how he has transformed El Salvador for the better for about 98% of the country. That's also not a figure I'm pulling out my arse, as 2% of the adult population are now in prison.

[John Chanin]

I commented elsewhere that based on a recent visit to El Salvador there is no question that Bukele is popular. Some locals were positively euphoric that they could now go about their towns, including at night, without fear of robbery or kidnap. There were no protection rackets and 'taxation' of business. Buses were safe. Tourists (like me) were returning, also boosting the economy. And no-one could remember this ever being true in the past.

There's plenty of evidence, and not just from El Salvador, that most people value security over everything else, when forced to choose. (Americans do seem to be an exception).

Of course as I have also commented elsewhere, whether locking up 20% of all young men in the country is sustainable is another matter.

[johnloony]

Feb 5, 2024 8:03:58 GMT John Chanin said:

I commented elsewhere that based on a recent visit to El Salvador there is no question that Bukele is popular. Some locals were positively euphoric that they could now go about their towns, including at night, without fear of robbery or kidnap. There were no protection rackets and 'taxation' of business. Buses were safe. Tourists (like me) were returning, also boosting the economy. And no-one could remember this ever being true in the past.

There's plenty of evidence, and not just from El Salvador, that most people value security over everything else, when forced to choose. (Americans do seem to be an exception).

Of course as I have also commented elsewhere, whether locking up 20% of all young men in the country is sustainable is another matter.

It will only be a matter of time before the disgruntlement spreads from the incarcerated men to their parents, siblings, families, friends, colleagues, vague acquaintances and the general population. Presumably there are or will be horror stories about the conditions they are being held in, as well as concerns about the lack of due process.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Feb 5, 2024 11:58:11 GMT johnloony said:

Feb 5, 2024 8:03:58 GMT John Chanin said:

I commented elsewhere that based on a recent visit to El Salvador there is no question that Bukele is popular. Some locals were positively euphoric that they could now go about their towns, including at night, without fear of robbery or kidnap. There were no protection rackets and 'taxation' of business. Buses were safe. Tourists (like me) were returning, also boosting the economy. And no-one could remember this ever being true in the past.

There's plenty of evidence, and not just from El Salvador, that most people value security over everything else, when forced to choose. (Americans do seem to be an exception).

Of course as I have also commented elsewhere, whether locking up 20% of all young men in the country is sustainable is another matter.

It will only be a matter of time before the disgruntlement spreads from the incarcerated men to their parents, siblings, families, friends, colleagues, vague acquaintances and the general population. Presumably there are or will be horror stories about the conditions they are being held in, as well as concerns about the lack of due process.

There already have been horror stories, but many are willing to accept that risk. I even saw on a YouTube documentary, I forget the name, where family members of people who had been imprisoned wrongly were still supporting Bukele for the greater good. I have no doubt that he will lose popularity over time, but if you really look into just how savage and bloodthirsty MS-13 aare, and how they terrorised Salvadorian society, it's easy to see why Bukele is so wildly popular. Despite his flaws, and there are many, he is a leader who has accomplished his goals, and that's why there are now Bukele copy cats all over Latin America: including the newly elected Bukeleist President of Ecuador.

[The Bishop]

Copycats who might well end up following many of Bukele's worst traits whilst achieving less of the good results he has done.

But at the end of the day, liberals complaining about him are shouting into the void - things should simply never have been allowed to get that bad in the first place.

[uthacalthing]

Feb 5, 2024 8:03:58 GMT John Chanin said:

 I have also commented elsewhere, whether locking up 20% of all young men in the country is sustainable is another matter.

It is. If upon release you give them a good kicking and bus ticket to Mexico