Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

Only 1 OpinionPoll was conducted recently (but by OGM, Austria's best pollster):

OGM in more detail:

The bottom shows, that SPÖ's LH Kaiser has - despite his boringness - an incumbency-bonus, also Köfer (an exSPÖ-mayor, 2013 running for "T.Stronach/TS", now "TeamKärnten/TK") might be popular enough to bring his (pseudo)party back into the LandTag (5% threshold).
Mid-left: "C. is moving forward" (yes: 46%, no: 44%)
Mid-mid: participation 73% certain, 8% rather certain, 11% uncertain, 6% won't vote, 2% no answer
Mid-inner-right: decision 52% yes & certain, 23% yes & rather sure, 25% no unsure
Mid-right: preferred coalition

[Deleted]

Mar 2, 2018 17:20:05 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:05:48 GMT @goodoldcause said:

That's really interesting, though my understanding was that the proto-Slovene principality of Carantania, which originated in the early seventh century, first came under German political control and was then partly Germanised from the north and west, until the language frontier eventually stabilised more or less where it is now.

Are you suggesting some areas were resettled by Slavs at a later date?

Nono, i meant no reSettlement, You described it correctly (although the LanguageBorder has been far from being stable).

I am sorry, if i used misleading expressions.

Not at all - I just wanted to be sure I had the story correct in my mind!

I have just done a quick search, and the maps I have found suggest a slow but steady retreat of Slovene in Carinthia, at least after 1848. Can't find much before that.

[Georg Ebner]

A less established pollster (M&R) made another one for ÖVP-Carinthia:



I a DirectElection of the regional FM SPÖ's Kaiser is polled slightly below 50%, TK's Köfer 11%, FPÖ's Darmann and ÖVP's Bender below 10%.

[mrpastelito]

Wonderful stuff, Georg.

[Georg Ebner]

Mar 2, 2018 17:40:08 GMT @goodoldcause said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:20:05 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Nono, i meant no reSettlement, You described it correctly (although the LanguageBorder has been far from being stable).

I am sorry, if i used misleading expressions.

Not at all - I just wanted to be sure I had the story correct in my mind!

I have just done a quick search, and the maps I have found suggest a slow but steady retreat of Slovene in Carinthia, at least after 1848. Can't find much before that.

Yes, fatally the Slovenes have been split in the intransigent irredentists (not too popular, at least 1945-1990) and cath.-cons. NonNationalists (like the wife of a cousin), who have assimilated and often insist to be no Slovenes ("Windische", cf. Masures or Silesia).

[Georg Ebner]

I forgot to present You the DeViations in FederalElections (italics = EP-elections):



Last fall was ÖVP's best result so far - less than 5% below Austrian average. Catholicism doesn't have a visible role any longer, neither in Carinthia nor inside ÖVP, what helps them. But the economical prospects are probably and the demographical ones are certainly dire, hence also those of ÖVP, NEOS, GREENS.
FPÖ has recovered in 2017, but not to the levels seen under J.Haider.

[Georg Ebner]

My guess for Carinthia:

43% SPÖ
23% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
05% TK
04% NEOS
04% GREENS

But Carinthians are used since Haider to change the party easily; and while ~3/4 in LowerAustria and Tyrol were optimistic and satisfied with economy and RegionalGovernment, in C. it's only ~50:50, UnEmployment is still at 10% - so, an outstanding result cannot be ruled out. (45% for SPÖ wouldn't surprise me at all; 40% more, but it is also not impossible.)
Interestingly we will get an idea today, how large the present Kurz-effect is in LandTag-elections.

[Georg Ebner]

The last PollingStations will close at 16.00 MET.
Yet, as PostalVotes are allowed to arrive until 17.00 (counted tomorrow), we'll get the first data at 17.00 (therefore the projections will be bery accurate by then).

[Georg Ebner]

SORA:

48 SPÖ (~18/36)
23 FPÖ
15 ÖVP
5.6 TK
3 GREENS
2 NEOS

57% counted.

[Georg Ebner]

ArGe Wahlen:

47 SPÖ (17/36)
22.5 FPÖ
16 ÖVP
6 TK
3 GREENS
2.5 NEOS

[Georg Ebner]

Main motives for SPÖ-voters:

36% LH Kaiser
25% good work

FPÖ:
23% traditionally FPÖ

[Georg Ebner]

LH-DirectElection (according to SORA, different to the OGM-OpinionPoll):

54 Kaiser/SPÖ
18 FPÖ
11 ÖVP
05 TK

[Georg Ebner]

Historic: SPÖ performed for the first time better in Klagenfurt than in Villach.

[Foggy]

Mar 4, 2018 18:06:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Historic: SPÖ performed for the first time better in Klagenfurt than in Villach.

I see ERDE got over 5% in Villach, whilst NEOS were above 10% in Zell am See and the BZÖ hung onto more than 8% in Grafenstein. TK finished ahead of the FPÖ in Spittal.

Any idea what's behind these strange regional micro-patterns? Just a 'favourite son' vote for the lead candidates, or something to do with the prevailing ideology in each area.

Another thing to note is that turnout was down sharply compared to 2013.

[jamie]

SPO doing well it seems. Obvious caveat that a large part of it is through the cratering of the Greens, but it doesn't give you full confidence in the narrative that all traditionally centre-left European parties are dead/about to die.

[Georg Ebner]

Mar 4, 2018 18:57:59 GMT Foggy said:

Mar 4, 2018 18:06:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Historic: SPÖ performed for the first time better in Klagenfurt than in Villach.

I see ERDE got over 5% in Villach, whilst NEOS were above 10% in Zell am See and the BZÖ hung onto more than 8% in Grafenstein. TK finished ahead of the FPÖ in Spittal.

Any idea what's behind these strange regional micro-patterns? Just a 'favourite son' vote for the lead candidates, or something to do with the prevailing ideology in each area.

Another thing to note is that turnout was down sharply compared to 2013.

TK's Köfer was once SPÖ-mayor of Spittal, ERDE is also centred in Villach, Zell ("Zell am See" is in Salzburg) is Slovene and NEOS had the president of EnodnaLista/EL on second place (But only privately, most EL-delegates opposed a coalition with NEOS, some ran with the GREENS, public quarrels within the Slovene minority will start now...)

[Georg Ebner]

Mar 4, 2018 19:00:58 GMT jamie said:

SPO doing well it seems. Obvious caveat that a large part of it is through the cratering of the Greens, but it doesn't give you full confidence in the narrative that all traditionally centre-left European parties are dead/about to die.

With the low law-making competences and the population rallying around the PM - as the face of their region - not too much should be interpreted into this success. Also Kaiser himself is personally on the left side of SPÖ (SocioLogy-student, PartySoldier), but adopted to C. (He campaigned, for example, on promoting children&families, also mothers staying at home, what is horrified by feminists and PartyColleagues in Vienna [in Germany supported only by AfD and CSU].)

[Foggy]

Mar 4, 2018 21:43:29 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Mar 4, 2018 18:57:59 GMT Foggy said:

I see ERDE got over 5% in Villach, whilst NEOS were above 10% in Zell am See and the BZÖ hung onto more than 8% in Grafenstein. TK finished ahead of the FPÖ in Spittal.

Any idea what's behind these strange regional micro-patterns? Just a 'favourite son' vote for the lead candidates, or something to do with the prevailing ideology in each area.

Another thing to note is that turnout was down sharply compared to 2013.

TK's Köfer was once SPÖ-mayor of Spittal, ERDE is also centred in Villach, Zell ("Zell am See" is in Salzburg) is Slovene and NEOS had the president of EnodnaLista/EL on second place (But only privately, most EL-delegates opposed a coalition with NEOS, some ran with the GREENS, public quarrels within the Slovene minority will start now...)

Thanks. Indeed, a silly lapse from me about Zell there. I associate the political representation of Slovene minority more with the Greens than NEOS too – and of course neither party will be in the Landtag this time anyway, so Enodna Lista might as well have run alone.

[Georg Ebner]

Mar 4, 2018 22:09:50 GMT Foggy said:

Mar 4, 2018 21:43:29 GMT Georg Ebner said:

TK's Köfer was once SPÖ-mayor of Spittal, ERDE is also centred in Villach, Zell ("Zell am See" is in Salzburg) is Slovene and NEOS had the president of EnodnaLista/EL on second place (But only privately, most EL-delegates opposed a coalition with NEOS, some ran with the GREENS, public quarrels within the Slovene minority will start now...)

Thanks. Indeed, a silly lapse from me about Zell there. I associate the political representation of Slovene minority more with the Greens than NEOS too – and of course neither party will be in the Landtag this time anyway, so Enodna Lista might as well have run alone.

EL relied on the LiF one time, another time all 3 parties tried it together (and failed - a basic mandate was needed in the 1990ies).

[Georg Ebner]

Mar 4, 2018 13:51:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

My guess for Carinthia:

43% SPÖ
23% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
05% TK
04% NEOS
04% GREENS

But Carinthians are used since Haider to change the party easily; and while ~3/4 in LowerAustria and Tyrol were optimistic and satisfied with economy and RegionalGovernment, in C. it's only ~50:50, UnEmployment is still at 10% - so, an outstanding result cannot be ruled out. (45% for SPÖ wouldn't surprise me at all; 40% more, but it is also not impossible.)
Interestingly we will get an idea today, how large the present Kurz-effect is in LandTag-elections.

This time i failed quite a lot: 1.98% per party (OpinionPoll by OGM 1.85%, M&R 2.3%).
FPÖ was fixed, but i expected a certain Kurz-effect instead of a Kaiser-surge and overestimated NEOS&Slovenes.