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Post by londonseal80 on Jan 23, 2018 13:38:55 GMT
Also interesting that in 1997 and 2001 Labour won almost half the seats in Kent but Canterbury wasn't one of them, and now Labour only has one seat in Kent which is of course Canterbury. Well I think next time Colchester (somewhat similar to Canterbury) could be Labour’s strongest seat in Essex and not Thurrock. I agree, though Colchester is a much rougher, grittier town than Canterbury. Colchester also has double figure number of Labour councillors throughout the years (often 20+ in good Labour Years) , As of 2015, Canterbury has the same number of Labour councillors as Epsom and Ewell (except Canterbury Labour group are not the opposition to 30 odd Ratepayers like the have been in Epsom for donkeys years) which makes it a huge shock how Labour managed to win a seat very few Lab councillors in it. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2018 15:17:13 GMT
Well I think next time Colchester (somewhat similar to Canterbury) could be Labour’s strongest seat in Essex and not Thurrock. I agree, though Colchester is a much rougher, grittier town than Canterbury. Colchester also has double figure number of Labour councillors throughout the years (often 20+ in good Labour Years) , As of 2015, Canterbury has the same number of Labour councillors as Epsom and Ewell (except Canterbury Labour group are not the opposition to 30 odd Ratepayers like the have been in Epsom for donkeys years) which makes it a huge shock how Labour managed to win a seat very few Lab councillors in it. Again. I’ll point out the following Prior to the 2010 General Election, Labour had no Councillors in Penistone & Stocksbridge or Sefton Central. They won both seats by over 3,000 in 2010. The Conservatives got over half the vote in Morley & Outwood in 2017 but still have no Councillors. Labour only have 3/15 in Sheffield, Hallam and won it. Not having any local representation is not a barrier to winning a seat in a GE. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jan 23, 2018 20:04:34 GMT
I agree, though Colchester is a much rougher, grittier town than Canterbury. Colchester also has double figure number of Labour councillors throughout the years (often 20+ in good Labour Years) , As of 2015, Canterbury has the same number of Labour councillors as Epsom and Ewell (except Canterbury Labour group are not the opposition to 30 odd Ratepayers like the have been in Epsom for donkeys years) which makes it a huge shock how Labour managed to win a seat very few Lab councillors in it. Again. I’ll point out the following Prior to the 2010 General Election, Labour had no Councillors in Penistone & Stocksbridge or Sefton Central. They won both seats by over 3,000 in 2010. The Conservatives got over half the vote in Morley & Outwood in 2017 but still have no Councillors. Labour only have 3/15 in Sheffield, Hallam and won it. Not having any local representation is not a barrier to winning a seat in a GE. They also won Putney in 2001 with no councillors present difference being the other places (with the exception of Sheffield Hallam) mention have been strong Labour areas in the past in local government. I would imagine Labour will increase their presence on Canterbury council heavily in 2019 and have their highest number of councillors ever. |
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Post by martinwhelton on Jan 23, 2018 21:17:26 GMT
Well I think next time Colchester (somewhat similar to Canterbury) could be Labour’s strongest seat in Essex and not Thurrock. I agree, though Colchester is a much rougher, grittier town than Canterbury. Colchester also has double figure number of Labour councillors throughout the years (often 20+ in good Labour Years) , As of 2015, Canterbury has the same number of Labour councillors as Epsom and Ewell (except Canterbury Labour group are not the opposition to 30 odd Ratepayers like the have been in Epsom for donkeys years) which makes it a huge shock how Labour managed to win a seat very few Lab councillors in it. Like Canterbury it’s the impact of being a university town and one that has grown considerably in the last 20 years. As someone who went to Essex, the seat was nearly won by Labour in 1997 and in nearly any other part of the country would have elected a Labour MP. Ironically the Essex university campus is in the neighbouring seat of Harwich and North Essex and if Wivenhoe was included the seat it would be even more marginal. What helps the Conservatives in Colchester is being a large military town which skews the seat to the right in certain parts. Unlike Canterbury it’s a borough seat and has no rural hinterland. Outside of Lexden, it also has few strongly Conservative areas and is certainly winnable for Labour. Suspect if Bob Russell hadn’t stood it would have been even closer as a seat and there is much scope to squeeze the Lib Dem vote further. If Labour win an overall majority this seat will probably be one of them and outside of Thurrock it’s the only Essex seat that I can see us winning even though Rochford and Southend East has a similar majority. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2018 21:31:47 GMT
Again. I’ll point out the following Prior to the 2010 General Election, Labour had no Councillors in Penistone & Stocksbridge or Sefton Central. They won both seats by over 3,000 in 2010. The Conservatives got over half the vote in Morley & Outwood in 2017 but still have no Councillors. Labour only have 3/15 in Sheffield, Hallam and won it. Not having any local representation is not a barrier to winning a seat in a GE. They also won Putney in 2001 with no councillors present difference being the other places (with the exception of Sheffield Hallam) mention have been strong Labour areas in the past in local government. I would imagine Labour will increase their presence on Canterbury council heavily in 2019 and have their highest number of councillors ever. I forgot Putney. No Labour Councillors from 1998 to 2010? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2018 21:35:18 GMT
I agree, though Colchester is a much rougher, grittier town than Canterbury. Colchester also has double figure number of Labour councillors throughout the years (often 20+ in good Labour Years) , As of 2015, Canterbury has the same number of Labour councillors as Epsom and Ewell (except Canterbury Labour group are not the opposition to 30 odd Ratepayers like the have been in Epsom for donkeys years) which makes it a huge shock how Labour managed to win a seat very few Lab councillors in it. Like Canterbury it’s the impact of being a university town and one that has grown considerably in the last 20 years. As someone who went to Essex, the seat was nearly won by Labour in 1997 and it nearly any other part of the country would have elected a Labour MP. Ironically the Essex university campus is in the neighbouring seat of Harwich and North Essex and if Wivenhoe was included the seat it would be even more marginal. What helps the Conservatives in Colchester is being a large military town which skews the seat to the right in certain parts. Unlike Canterbury it’s a borough seat and has no rural hinterland. Outside of Lexden, it also has few strongly Conservative areas and is certainly winnable for Labour. Suspect if Bob Russell hadn’t stood it would have been even closer as a seat and there is much scope to squeeze the Lib Dem vote further. If Labour win an overall majority this seat will probably be one of them and outside of Thurrock it’s the only Essex seat that I can see us winning even though Rochford and Southend East has a similar majority. Again the swing to Labour was minuscule in Thurrock in 2017. Even if the UKIP vote fell by a similar percentage next time and the swing was repeated, the Conservatives could win Thurrock by a 2010-style majority. As for Colchester I don’t think Russell will stand again after slumping to 3rd. So the LD vote could swing more to Labour next time. Hence my theory that the a Conservatives could lose Colchester while clinging on by c100 votes in Thurrock. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jan 24, 2018 10:14:58 GMT
I agree, though Colchester is a much rougher, grittier town than Canterbury. Colchester also has double figure number of Labour councillors throughout the years (often 20+ in good Labour Years) , As of 2015, Canterbury has the same number of Labour councillors as Epsom and Ewell (except Canterbury Labour group are not the opposition to 30 odd Ratepayers like the have been in Epsom for donkeys years) which makes it a huge shock how Labour managed to win a seat very few Lab councillors in it. Like Canterbury it’s the impact of being a university town and one that has grown considerably in the last 20 years. As someone who went to Essex, the seat was nearly won by Labour in 1997 and it nearly any other part of the country would have elected a Labour MP. Ironically the Essex university campus is in the neighbouring seat of Harwich and North Essex and if Wivenhoe was included the seat it would be even more marginal. What helps the Conservatives in Colchester is being a large military town which skews the seat to the right in certain parts. Unlike Canterbury it’s a borough seat and has no rural hinterland. Outside of Lexden, it also has few strongly Conservative areas and is certainly winnable for Labour. Suspect if Bob Russell hadn’t stood it would have been even closer as a seat and there is much scope to squeeze the Lib Dem vote further. If Labour win an overall majority this seat will probably be one of them and outside of Thurrock it’s the only Essex seat that I can see us winning even though Rochford and Southend East has a similar majority. The growth of the universities over the past 20 years has certainly helped Labour in Canterbury. Though why has performed so poorly in locals, they don’t have even a county council seat elected in 2017, it’s not like Canterbury has a load of Residents in local government, do the students not vote in locals there? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2018 10:17:49 GMT
But whatever happened to Tim Collins? If I remember right he was a big Doctor Who fan so I always quite liked him. But he seemed to sink without trace afterwards; I imagined that a shadow cabinet member losing his seat would have been found a back room role or a safer seat. I also thought he was a good guy - down to earth, approachable, maybe a bit lazy (which I admire in an MP) - but apparently not everybody did. He became very disillusioned with politics after losing his seat and I think took it fairly personally (which is kind of the point of 'decapitation'). Even just after the 2001 election he had some issues with the LD campaign, despite surviving that time. He was briefly on Cameron's post 2005 "A list", but chose to relinquish it for a public affairs career. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2018 10:20:06 GMT
Like Canterbury it’s the impact of being a university town and one that has grown considerably in the last 20 years. As someone who went to Essex, the seat was nearly won by Labour in 1997 and it nearly any other part of the country would have elected a Labour MP. Ironically the Essex university campus is in the neighbouring seat of Harwich and North Essex and if Wivenhoe was included the seat it would be even more marginal. What helps the Conservatives in Colchester is being a large military town which skews the seat to the right in certain parts. Unlike Canterbury it’s a borough seat and has no rural hinterland. Outside of Lexden, it also has few strongly Conservative areas and is certainly winnable for Labour. Suspect if Bob Russell hadn’t stood it would have been even closer as a seat and there is much scope to squeeze the Lib Dem vote further. If Labour win an overall majority this seat will probably be one of them and outside of Thurrock it’s the only Essex seat that I can see us winning even though Rochford and Southend East has a similar majority. The growth of the universities over the past 20 years has certainly helped Labour in Canterbury. Though why has performed so poorly in locals, they don’t have even a county council seat elected in 2017, it’s not like Canterbury has a load of Residents in local government, do the students not vote in locals there? Students don't vote in locals anywhere (though this may change a little given the student turnout surge at the GE). For a fairly pure example take a look at the turnouts in the University ward of Lancaster, which is almost exclusively the campus (a bit of rural hinterland was put in last time but there are no settlements there, just the odd farmhouse etc). |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 17, 2018 23:54:03 GMT
(Saw this on a search.) The growth of the universities over the past 20 years has certainly helped Labour in Canterbury. Though why has performed so poorly in locals, they don’t have even a county council seat elected in 2017, it’s not like Canterbury has a load of Residents in local government, do the students not vote in locals there? Local elections in Canterbury are often in the University of Kent's vacation - you have go back to 2009 to find the last in term time (when they were delayed because of the European elections) and even when polling day is in the summer term (which I think is still all exams - it changed to that in my day) a good chunk of the campaign is in vacation. Students generally have low turnouts in local elections overall for a variety of reasons - many move home, ward & even authority from year to year, there's little direct student-council contact in terms of both services & council tax, students often don't consume the local media & student media often doesn't cover council matters, very few students are around for a complete election cycle and so forth. |
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