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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2018 11:38:12 GMT
Suppose the LDs unseat Theresa May instead of Tim Collins in 2005.
LDEM 45.5% +11.1
CON 44.9% -0.1
LAB 7.6% -7.6
UKIP 1.3% -0.4
Ind 0.6%
LDEM gain from CON
Would we have ended up with PM Boris or maybe Hammond?
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Post by swanarcadian on Jan 13, 2018 12:18:25 GMT
instead of Tim Collins in 2005. Then Tim Farron doesn't become an MP. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2018 12:24:58 GMT
Farron could still have won Westmorland in 2010, I suppose.....
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2018 12:28:15 GMT
Farron could still have won Westmorland in 2010, I suppose..... True. The LDs failed to take Eastbourne in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and went on to win in 2010. Also Wells. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jan 13, 2018 15:15:21 GMT
Suppose the LDs unseat Theresa May instead of Tim Collins in 2005. LDEM 45.5% +11.1 CON 44.9% -0.1 LAB 7.6% -7.6 UKIP 1.3% -0.4 Ind 0.6% LDEM gain from CON Would we have ended up with PM Boris or maybe Hammond? We would have a strong and stable government (in the national interest) |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 13, 2018 18:49:35 GMT
Theresa May, David Davis and Liam Fox were all seen as being potential Lib Dem scalps at the 2005 election. All three, of course, now hold top cabinet positions.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2018 18:59:17 GMT
Theresa May, David Davis and Liam Fox were all seen as being potential Lib Dem scalps at the 2005 election. All three, of course, now hold top cabinet positions. Let that be a lesson to the rest of you. This is what you get for not voting for us. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jan 13, 2018 20:37:20 GMT
Theresa May, David Davis and Liam Fox were all seen as being potential Lib Dem scalps at the 2005 election. All three, of course, now hold top cabinet positions. Let that be a lesson to the rest of you. This is what you get for not voting for us. But whatever happened to Tim Collins? If I remember right he was a big Doctor Who fan so I always quite liked him. But he seemed to sink without trace afterwards; I imagined that a shadow cabinet member losing his seat would have been found a back room role or a safer seat. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 13, 2018 21:01:53 GMT
Let that be a lesson to the rest of you. This is what you get for not voting for us. But whatever happened to Tim Collins? If I remember right he was a big Doctor Who fan so I always quite liked him. But he seemed to sink without trace afterwards; I imagined that a shadow cabinet member losing his seat would have been found a back room role or a safer seat. He was Chairman of Bell Pottinger Political when Bell Pottinger went belly-up, and is now running his own lobbying company Vico Partners. www.vicopartners.com |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 13, 2018 21:51:55 GMT
Theresa May, David Davis and Liam Fox were all seen as being potential Lib Dem scalps at the 2005 election. All three, of course, now hold top cabinet positions. They tried the same "decapitation" strategy against Michael Howard himself. It failed badly and the Liberal Democrat momentum in Folkestone & Hythe unwound. If they had chosen a more suitable candidate in 1997 they would have won it then. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2018 5:32:05 GMT
Theresa May, David Davis and Liam Fox were all seen as being potential Lib Dem scalps at the 2005 election. All three, of course, now hold top cabinet positions. They tried the same "decapitation" strategy against Michael Howard himself. It failed badly and the Liberal Democrat momentum in Folkestone & Hythe unwound. If they had chosen a more suitable candidate in 1997 they would have won it then. I hadn’t realised the swing against Howard was only 2.5% because of split opposition. Another seat where the LDs started in 2nd in 1992 and fell away. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2018 7:58:53 GMT
It’s interesting that in 1997 the Conservative vote share in Folkestone & Hythe was only 0.35% ahead of Canterbury.
The Referendum Party got its highest vote share in the country in Folkestone - 8.0%.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 14, 2018 10:58:58 GMT
It’s interesting that in 1997 the Conservative vote share in Folkestone & Hythe was only 0.35% ahead of Canterbury. The Referendum Party got its highest vote share in the country in Folkestone - 8.0%. It was the 2nd highest. Highest was in Harwich |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 14, 2018 12:44:29 GMT
It’s interesting that in 1997 the Conservative vote share in Folkestone & Hythe was only 0.35% ahead of Canterbury. The Referendum Party got its highest vote share in the country in Folkestone - 8.0%. Also interesting that in 1997 and 2001 Labour won almost half the seats in Kent but Canterbury wasn't one of them, and now Labour only has one seat in Kent which is of course Canterbury. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2018 13:07:52 GMT
It’s interesting that in 1997 the Conservative vote share in Folkestone & Hythe was only 0.35% ahead of Canterbury. The Referendum Party got its highest vote share in the country in Folkestone - 8.0%. It was the 2nd highest. Highest was in Harwich Ah yes. That partly explains why it was lost. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2018 13:13:55 GMT
It’s interesting that in 1997 the Conservative vote share in Folkestone & Hythe was only 0.35% ahead of Canterbury. The Referendum Party got its highest vote share in the country in Folkestone - 8.0%. Also interesting that in 1997 and 2001 Labour won almost half the seats in Kent but Canterbury wasn't one of them, and now Labour only has one seat in Kent which is of course Canterbury. Well I think next time Colchester (somewhat similar to Canterbury) could be Labour’s strongest seat in Essex and not Thurrock. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 14, 2018 15:25:31 GMT
Also interesting that in 1997 and 2001 Labour won almost half the seats in Kent but Canterbury wasn't one of them, and now Labour only has one seat in Kent which is of course Canterbury. Well I think next time Colchester (somewhat similar to Canterbury) could be Labour’s strongest seat in Essex and not Thurrock. Especially since they can squeeze the Liberal Democrat further since Sir Robert Russell is unlikely to contest it again. As for Thurrock, UKIP's disappearance could allow yet another narrow Conservative hold even if Labour nationally beats the Conservatives in seat numbers and votes. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2018 16:05:29 GMT
Well I think next time Colchester (somewhat similar to Canterbury) could be Labour’s strongest seat in Essex and not Thurrock. Especially since they can squeeze the Liberal Democrat further since Sir Robert Russell is unlikely to contest it again. As for Thurrock, UKIP's disappearance could allow yet another narrow Conservative hold even if Labour nationally beats the Conservatives in seat numbers and votes. Honestly it wouldn’t surprise if Labour won by 100 votes or so in Colchester and lost out in Thurrock by a similar margin next time. I doubt Tim Aker and Bob Russell will stand again for their respective parties as neither look competitive. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jan 19, 2018 13:30:28 GMT
Especially since they can squeeze the Liberal Democrat further since Sir Robert Russell is unlikely to contest it again. As for Thurrock, UKIP's disappearance could allow yet another narrow Conservative hold even if Labour nationally beats the Conservatives in seat numbers and votes. Honestly it wouldn’t surprise if Labour won by 100 votes or so in Colchester and lost out in Thurrock by a similar margin next time. I doubt Tim Aker and Bob Russell will stand again for their respective parties as neither look competitive. Will Quince has been an effective and likeable local MP and has built up a decent support base fairly quickly - probably including some who previously gave Sir Bob his strong personal vote. I think this effect will be cemented next time and, barring scandal and sorcery, he'll be safe for as long as he chooses to represent the seat. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jan 19, 2018 13:37:08 GMT
Let that be a lesson to the rest of you. This is what you get for not voting for us. But whatever happened to Tim Collins? If I remember right he was a big Doctor Who fan so I always quite liked him. But he seemed to sink without trace afterwards; I imagined that a shadow cabinet member losing his seat would have been found a back room role or a safer seat. I also thought he was a good guy - down to earth, approachable, maybe a bit lazy (which I admire in an MP) - but apparently not everybody did. He became very disillusioned with politics after losing his seat and I think took it fairly personally (which is kind of the point of 'decapitation'). Even just after the 2001 election he had some issues with the LD campaign, despite surviving that time. |
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