Ted Heath loses Bexley in 1966

[Deleted]

Majority of 8.6% in 1964.

Suppose Heath loses in 1966.

Does Enoch Powell lead the Conservatives into the 1970 election?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It would probably have been Reginald Maudling. Horrorshow.

[carlton43]

Oh! Happy, happy thought. If only.

Maudling was thought to be mentally untidy and lazy and had a lot of detractors. I don't think he would possibly have pulled it off because of his many detractors and outright enemies. Powell would have been both unifying and divisive in the party and the country, but had many enthusiastic supporters in the wider membership including constituency officers and that then might have been crucial to his advantage?

[sirbenjamin]

Jan 12, 2018 0:28:18 GMT carlton43 said:

Oh! Happy, happy thought. If only.

Maudling was thought to be mentally untidy and lazy and had a lot of detractors. I don't think he would possibly have pulled it off because of his many detractors and outright enemies. Powell would have been both unifying and divisive in the party and the country, but had many enthusiastic supporters in the wider membership including constituency officers and that then might have been crucial to his advantage?

If there had been a Maudling premiership, would it have ended prematurely (like his political career and indeed his life)? Would he even have won the 1970/71 election?

All other factors being equal, I could see him doing about as well (or slightly less well) as Heath did and scraping home, but he'd probably be gone by about 1973-4 and a wide-open leadership election would follow. McLeod, Heath, Thatcher, Powell, Whitelaw even.

A possible - indeed highloy conceivable - scenario is that Heath gets back into parliament, becomes PM anyway and history gets back on track, albeit delayed by 2-3 years and skipping Wilson's final stint as PM.
 

[carlton43]

MacLeod was also one to die early. I never met him but knew many who had. A convivial man of charm and wit who tended to live on his wits and from winnings at cards, and that can limit popularity in your circle! A brilliant bridge player who wrote the excellent 'Bridge is An Easy Game' and invented the Acol bidding system named after the house in Acol road where he developed it, and in turn named after the Kent village of Acol, resulting in the system being pronounced 'A-Col' and not 'akkol'. It was said of him that he was 'Too Clever By Half' at a time when brains were even less regarded in the party than now! I don't think he could ever have made leader under any circumstance? He outperformed Powell at the Conservative Research Centre despite being less clever and far less industrious. But Powell was greatly indebted to him for not just friendship but also widening his horizons, introducing him to the smart set, tidying up his accent by working on diction, and rehearsing him for hours in public speaking and mock interviews for a parliamentary seat. Powell was very close and really liked him.

[Deleted]

I think Powell would've won a bigger majority than Heath perhaps.

[swanarcadian]

I have a feeling of déjà vu.

vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/5119/ted-heath-loses-bexley-1966

[Deleted]

Jan 12, 2018 21:54:13 GMT swanarcadian said:

I have a feeling of déjà vu.

vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/5119/ted-heath-loses-bexley-1966

Doesn’t really matter.

The whole point of alternate/counterfactual history is that there are many possibilities.

[Deleted]

Now what happens if Theresa May, not Tim Collins, is the victim of the Lib Dem decapitation strategy in 2005?

[beastofbedfordshire]

Jan 13, 2018 0:11:29 GMT @benjl said:

Heath loses Bexley - Powel becomes leader - UK doesn’t enter common market with both major parties in agreement - Thatcher sees the EU is growing beyond a common market so chooses not to enter, instead negotiating a free trade deal - The 92-97 Conservative government is much less internally divided - Blair therefore wins a smaller majority of around 100 in 97 - Blair intergrates the UK with the EU to a greater extent but fears loosing a referendum on joining - Blair wins re-election in 2001 but due to the smaller majority sticks to the Granita Pact, giving way to Brown in 2004 - The 2005 election results in a hung parliament with a Labour-Lib dem confidence and supply agreement emerging - The 2010 election results in a conservative majority government, the Lib Dem’s being seen as partly to blame for the financial crash along with Labour - The Lib Dem’s remain the third force in British politics with UKIP being non-existent.

Some very powerful voters in 1966 Bexley.

Much prefer this scenario over our current one.

[greenhert]

Jan 13, 2018 0:11:29 GMT @benjl said:

Heath loses Bexley - Powel becomes leader - UK doesn’t enter common market with both major parties in agreement - Thatcher sees the EU is growing beyond a common market so chooses not to enter, instead negotiating a free trade deal - The 92-97 Conservative government is much less internally divided - Blair therefore wins a smaller majority of around 100 in 97 - Blair intergrates the UK with the EU to a greater extent but fears loosing a referendum on joining - Blair wins re-election in 2001 but due to the smaller majority sticks to the Granita Pact, giving way to Brown in 2004 - The 2005 election results in a hung parliament with a Labour-Lib dem confidence and supply agreement emerging - The 2010 election results in a conservative majority government, the Lib Dem’s being seen as partly to blame for the financial crash along with Labour - The Lib Dem’s remain the third force in British politics with UKIP being non-existent.

Some very powerful voters in 1966 Bexley.

Indeed. Speaking of similar hypothetical scenarios, it is worth remembering that Harold Wilson's seat of Huyton started out as a marginal Labour seat, not a safe Labour seat.