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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 12, 2018 15:59:36 GMT
In the spirit of co-operation that Pete had so typically engendered it should be pointed out that UKIP won 8 of the 15 seats within this division as recently as 2015. They had councillors in 5 of the 6 wards and a near miss in the other. That was a mere four leaders ago. It isn't exactly the most novel revelation that UKIP are doing very poorly relative to how they were doing 3 or 4 years ago. In 2015 they won 12.5% in the general election. In 2013 they were polling at around 15% nationally and won over 20% NEVS in the county council elections. They are now polling about 3% nationally, so about a fifth of what they were polling then. I don't understand why anyone thinks it particularly noteworthy when that kind of decline is reflected in their vote share in a local government by-election |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 12, 2018 16:48:53 GMT
Because not all of us have an encyclopaedic knowledge of council election results in Kent, Pete. Well I'm not sure any of us do - I certainly don't, although it was mentioned in Andrew's preview which most people will have read in the last day or so, so a long memory or encyclopedic knowledge isn't really required. But in the same helpful spirit in which the Bishop posted and apropros of nothing, I shall remind everyone that Labour won 10 of the 12 council seats within the area back in 1995 and the Conservatives won 0. Labour had an absolutely amazing 1995 result in Thanet, even by the normal standards of that year. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 12, 2018 18:56:02 GMT
I had predicted that Angie Curwen would come second in the county poll and third in the district.Wrong way round! Suggests that the Lib Dem strength (if you call it that) was in the villages, not in the more urbanised areas around Birchington and into western Margate, which had not altogether surprisingly a more Labour tinge. The overall results were bitterly disappointing for the Lib Dems given that they had a first rate candidate and a "proper" campaign for the first time anyone can remember, though I have to say I heard more about this pre-Christmas -awfully difficult timing to maintain a campaign over Christmas and New Year for anyone, which does tend to favour established parties who just need to pull out their regulars on the day. Having said all that this was still the best showing the Lib Dems have put on in this very tough area for them in quite a long time. Hello Yellowperil, To me the results suggest concentration on the smaller district ward and not bothering much with the rest of the County division (where the vote was probably down in single figures)? But you obviously know a bit more about it than I do... Is the district voting in May? If so I presume there will be another chance for Angie Curwen now she has established herself in second place... |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 13, 2018 8:55:46 GMT
I will try to answer andrew111's query but I would stress he is right that I may know a bit more about Thanet, but clearly not much more or I would not have made such a pig's ear of the prediction competition. And of course if I did know how exactly the Thanet Lib Dem strategy would develop I wouldn't share it on an open forum, but as it is I can offer my ignorant thoughts. My knowledge such as it is comes from the usual open internet sources plus a few emails (pre Christmas)from SE Region - a long time ago I used to be on the regional executive.
Yes I assume the next local election in the area barring another by-election will be all-out district elections in 2019.There might be a chance of sneaking a place in the villages ward, I guess, because its a more open and volatile ward than some, but it would not be easy. It's a very extensive area with some 10 separate villages each with their own issues. If Cllr Grove stands again for the Independents he will probably get a massive vote concentrated around the Minster end of the ward and will take one of the three places. Where will the Manston issue have got to by then?- difficult to say. I would expect the Tories to fight hard as control of the council will be very much up for grabs.And by 2019 where will the parties be nationally? Plus, of course, May 2019 is a strong candidate to be the date of the next General Election....
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 13, 2018 10:14:01 GMT
Well I'm not sure any of us do - I certainly don't, although it was mentioned in Andrew's preview which most people will have read in the last day or so, so a long memory or encyclopedic knowledge isn't really required. But in the same helpful spirit in which the Bishop posted and apropros of nothing, I shall remind everyone that Labour won 10 of the 12 council seats within the area back in 1995 and the Conservatives won 0. Its probably as good an example as any of a seat which Labour came close in 97 but didn't expect to - despite the council election results. Since then its also a very good example of a seat, indeed, a whole area, which contains demographic groups not inclined towards Labour. And where the good results of 97 - 01 were something of a blip Mind you, I don't think either of these wards were that great for us even then! This isn't entirely true - we're a fair way off '97 levels of performance in Thanet, but we saw a substantial improvement in both seats in the general election and there have been some good by-election results since in north Kent. We've won a decent amount of support amongst urban ex-UKIP voters, but areas like this where the UKIP vote will have had a bigger rural component will always be a tougher sell. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 13, 2018 15:29:28 GMT
Its probably as good an example as any of a seat which Labour came close in 97 but didn't expect to - despite the council election results. Since then its also a very good example of a seat, indeed, a whole area, which contains demographic groups not inclined towards Labour. And where the good results of 97 - 01 were something of a blip Mind you, I don't think either of these wards were that great for us even then! This isn't entirely true - we're a fair way off '97 levels of performance in Thanet, but we saw a substantial improvement in both seats in the general election and there have been some good by-election results since in north Kent. We've won a decent amount of support amongst urban ex-UKIP voters, but areas like this where the UKIP vote will have had a bigger rural component will always be a tougher sell. But it's still unlikely that we will get any of those seats back next time. I don't think any are primary targets. Thanet South without Farage might be the most likely. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 13, 2018 16:33:17 GMT
Kent, Birchington & Rural - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | | Conservative | 2,534 | 56.6% | +6.1% | +4.8% | Labour | 856 | 19.1% | +2.9% | +3.7% | Liberal Democrat | 561 | 12.5% | +0.5% | +1.2% | UKIP | 357 | 8.0% | -7.8% | -7.4% | Green | 169 | 3.8% | -1.8% | -2.2% | Total votes | 4,477 |
| 50% | 54% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~1½% / ½% since 2017 Council now 67 Conservative, 7 Liberal Democrat, 5 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Resident Lancashire, Wyre Rural Central - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | | Conservative | 1,745 | 60.0% | -10.9% | Labour | 925 | 31.8% | +13.9% | Green | 237 | 8.2% | -3.1% | Total votes | 2,907 |
| 76% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~12½% since 2017 Council now 43 Conservative, 30 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent, 2 No Description, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 1 Vacant Thanet, Thanet Villages - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 620 | 49.3% | +25.1% | +25.8% | +18.3% | +21.5% | Liberal Democrat | 313 | 24.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 206 | 16.4% | +6.6% | +6.1% | +0.6% | +0.4% | Green | 66 | 5.3% | -6.2% | -6.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Smith | 52 | 4.1% | -2.2% | -2.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Grove |
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| -25.3% | -26.5% | -37.1% | -39.2% | UKIP |
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| -22.8% | -21.0% |
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| Other Independent
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| -16.0%
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| Total votes | 1,257 |
| 24% | 25% | 39% | 41% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 25 UKIP, 21 Conservative, 6 Labour, 4 Independent Wyre, Preesall - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 930 | 55.3% | -9.7% | -12.2% | +3.0% | +4.0% | Labour | 753 | 44.7% | +9.7% | +12.2% | +18.3% | +17.8% | Green |
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| -21.3% | +21.8% | Total votes | 1,683 |
| 54% | 59% | 68% | 69% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 9¾% / 12¼% since 2015 and ~ 7¾% / 7% since 2011 Council now 36 Conservative, 13 Labour, 1 Vacant
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 14, 2018 15:16:39 GMT
I note I have now had an email from Angie Curwen expressing satisfaction with her achievement in the two Thanet elections. Good for her, and hope we'll see more of her in the future, but can't help feeling there is a bit of putting a brave face on and still wonder if the campaign faltered a bit over the Christmas/New Year break - indeed very difficult for this sort of campaign not to in the circumstances.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 15, 2018 13:39:29 GMT
This isn't entirely true - we're a fair way off '97 levels of performance in Thanet, but we saw a substantial improvement in both seats in the general election and there have been some good by-election results since in north Kent. We've won a decent amount of support amongst urban ex-UKIP voters, but areas like this where the UKIP vote will have had a bigger rural component will always be a tougher sell. But it's still unlikely that we will get any of those seats back next time. I don't think any are primary targets. Thanet South without Farage might be the most likely. But were they ever really targets? They've generally fallen into the 'nice to have' category rather than being key marginals. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 15, 2018 16:12:19 GMT
But it's still unlikely that we will get any of those seats back next time. I don't think any are primary targets. Thanet South without Farage might be the most likely. But were they ever really targets? They've generally fallen into the 'nice to have' category rather than being key marginals. I think Rochester and Strood, Chatham and Aylesford and Dover were all considered winnable. Not so much Gillingham or Thanet South. North Kent is undoubtedly with Essex a part of the country which does respond to culture wars. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 16:14:44 GMT
It wasn't Rochester & Strood? It was Medway wasn't it?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 15, 2018 16:29:07 GMT
It wasn't Rochester & Strood? It was Medway wasn't it? I think Rochester and Strood is largely a renamed Medway with near identical boundaries. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 15, 2018 16:53:30 GMT
It wasn't Rochester & Strood? It was Medway wasn't it? I think Rochester and Strood is largely a renamed Medway with near identical boundaries. There was a vigorous debate over this issue during the 2014 byelection. The boundary changes were much greater than might have appeared because the unchanged northern bit of the constituency including the Isle of Grain contained a large area but few voters, while the boundary changes affected a small area in Rochester which had a large number of voters. A lot of people looked at the maps, saw two very similar looking outlines, and presumed the changes were minimal. They weren't if you looked closer up: (red line - boundaries 1997-2010; blue line - boundaries 2010 on)  |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 15, 2018 17:19:20 GMT
I think Rochester and Strood is largely a renamed Medway with near identical boundaries. There was a vigorous debate over this issue during the 2014 byelection. The boundary changes were much greater than might have appeared because the unchanged northern bit of the constituency including the Isle of Grain contained a large area but few voters, while the boundary changes affected a small area in Rochester which had a large number of voters. A lot of people looked at the maps, saw two very similar looking outlines, and presumed the changes were minimal. They weren't if you looked closer up: (red line - boundaries 1997-2010; blue line - boundaries 2010 on) Not my part of the world at all, I was actually working from a local obituary of Bob Marshall-Andrews that came up online. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 15, 2018 17:53:56 GMT
But he's not dead?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 15, 2018 18:05:35 GMT
Very true! I should’ve read more closely, it dates from his defection to the Lib Dems and is actually sub-headed “the political obituary of BM-A” and is humorous/sarcastic depending on your point of view. It does however say “after announcing his retirement in 2007 he was succeeded in 2010 by then Conservative Mark Reckless in the newly named, but near identical seat of R&S.” In my defence I’m in hospital with limited WiFi and a full-face oxygen mask meaning I can’t wear my glasses. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 18:09:57 GMT
Very true! I should’ve read more closely, it dates from his defection to the Lib Dems and is actually sub-headed “the political obituary of BM-A” and is humorous/sarcastic depending on your point of view. It does however say “after announcing his retirement in 2007 he was succeeded in 2010 by then Conservative Mark Reckless in the newly named, but near identical seat of R&S.” In my defence I’m in hospital with limited WiFi and a full-face oxygen mask meaning I can’t wear my glasses. Sorry to hear that I know how it feels with one of those on. Get well soon! |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 15, 2018 18:13:32 GMT
Very true! I should’ve read more closely, it dates from his defection to the Lib Dems and is actually sub-headed “the political obituary of BM-A” and is humorous/sarcastic depending on your point of view. It does however say “after announcing his retirement in 2007 he was succeeded in 2010 by then Conservative Mark Reckless in the newly named, but near identical seat of R&S.” In my defence I’m in hospital with limited WiFi and a full-face oxygen mask meaning I can’t wear my glasses. Sorry to hear that I know how it feels with one of those on. Get well soon! Thanks; nasty chest infection that didn’t respond to standard antibiotics, but possibly set free to go home tomorrow. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 15, 2018 18:49:49 GMT
I think Rochester and Strood is largely a renamed Medway with near identical boundaries. There was a vigorous debate over this issue during the 2014 byelection. The boundary changes were much greater than might have appeared because the unchanged northern bit of the constituency including the Isle of Grain contained a large area but few voters, while the boundary changes affected a small area in Rochester which had a large number of voters. A lot of people looked at the maps, saw two very similar looking outlines, and presumed the changes were minimal. They weren't if you looked closer up: (red line - boundaries 1997-2010; blue line - boundaries 2010 on) I wouldn't overstate it either though. Over 95% of the Medway seat remained in Rochester & Strood (with about 3k voters moving across to Chatham) and 90% of the current seat came from Medway (with about 7k voters being added from Chatham and Gillingham). The partisan effect of the changes were very minor, though as they slightly favoured the Tories and the seat had a tiny Labour majority in 2005, this resulted in a notional change of hands. It is effectively the same seat and would clearly have voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 |
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