Local By Election, January 4th, 2018

[yellowperil]

Just a gentle introduction to the by-election scene in the New Year, with a single contest on the first Thursday of the year, but I will set it up here so you don't let it slip your minds...

[yellowperil]

Hertsmere Borough Council, Borehamwood Cowley Hill Ward
Conservative sitting as Independent disqualified
5 candidates:
Rebecca Zoe Butler (Lab)
David Thomas Hoy (UKIP)
Sean Kieron Moore (Con)
Paul Robinson (LD)
Nicholas Winston (Green)

2002 election results: Lab 886, Ind 693, SocLab 95
2003 election results: Lab 826, Con 224, SocLab 184
2004 election results: Lab 654, Con 567, LD 284. SocLab 181
2006 election results: Lab 642, Con 556, Soc 187, LD 186
2007 election results: Lab 724, Con 532, SocLab 234
2008 election results: Lab 640, Con 600, SocLab 226, Ind 144
2010 election results: Lab 1373, Con 1189, BNP 426, Ind 268
2011 election results: Lab 1126, Con 723
2012 election results: Lab 904, Con 461
2014 election results: Lab 796, UKIP 656,  Con 475
2015 election results: Lab 1874/1495/1426, Con 1449/1375/1357

[Pete Whitehead]

Nice to see David Hoy still soldiering on - fair play to him

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 26, 2017 9:32:25 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Labour will be pretty unhappy if this one isn't taken.

I can't see them not taking it. They gained a seat in Kenilworth recently which is far less solid for them then this ward. The Conservatives won a seat here only thanks to three seats being up on the same day as a general election. Nearly half the housing stock is socially owned, almost all of it council built (there is nothing of the newer private estates that have helped turn all the other Borehamwood wards such as the Studios estate in Kenilworth) and some of it really quite grim (look at the area around Leeming Road/Aycliffe Road for example)

[timmullen1]

Andrew’s 2018 debut:

britainelects.com/2018/01/03/previews-04-jan-2018/

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Turnout 19.2%.

[middleenglander]

Jan 4, 2018 22:43:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Turnout 19.2%.

Around 1,190 votes

[maxque]

Turnout: 19.2%

[Andrew_S]

I know most people think ElectoralCalculus's ward data may not be reliable but anyway their figures say this was the only ward to vote for Labour in Hertsmere at the 2017 election by 2,044 votes to 1,988 for the Conservatives.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Hertsmere

[Deleted]

Labour would have carried Kenilworth?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Rebecca Butler (Labour) 709
Sean Moore (Conservative) 381
David Hoy (UKIP) 57
Paul Robinson (Lib Dem) 20
Nicholas Winston (Green) 18

[middleenglander]

Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley - Labour gain from Conservative sitting as Independent

Party	2018 votes	2018 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2014	since 2012	since 2011
Labour	709	59.8%	+3.4%	+6.4%	+18.5%	-6.4%	-1.0%
Conservative	381	32.2%	-11.5%	-14.4%	+7.5%	-1.6%	-7.0%
UKIP	57	4.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-29.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	20	1.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	18	1.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	1,185		36%	40%	61%	87%	64%

Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 7½% / 10½% since 2015 and 3% since 2011 but Labour to Conservative ~ 2½% since 2012
- since 2014 not particularly meaningful

Council now 35 Conservative, 4 Labour

[maxque]

Jan 4, 2018 23:06:08 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Rebecca Butler (Labour) 709
Sean Moore (Conservative) 381
David Hoy (UKIP) 57
Paul Robinson (Lib Dem) 20
Nicholas Winston (Green) 18

Lab 59.8% (+3.4)
Con 32.2% (-11.4)
UKIP 4.8%
LD 1.7%
Grn 1.5%

[Pete Whitehead]

It's good to see UKIP outpolling the other fringe parties' combined vote. I don't think I got the best score in the prediction competition, but was the only one to predict the correct order of parties

[andrewp]

Jan 4, 2018 23:18:42 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Not surprising that Labour won but that's quite a good result, the only major disappointment being the turnout, though that's not very surprising given that many people will still be away on their hols - many workplaces haven't reopened after Christmas especially catering.

It is a good Labour result. I thought the Lab candidate being the wife of the Labour councillor who topped the poll in the same ward at all the out elections, would help Lab.

[yellowperil]

Jan 4, 2018 23:27:15 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It's good to see UKIP outpolling the other fringe parties' combined vote. I don't think I got the best score in the prediction competition, but was the only one to predict the correct order of parties

Indeed I have congratulated you on that fact on the prediction thread. That said, the three "fringe  parties" got less than 100 votes between them in a ward of something like 6000 electors, so you can hardly draw much comfort from that where the UKIP candidate had something of an established base to start with while Lib Dem and Green candidates had no real base at all and were clearly only the thinnest of paper candidates.

[The Bishop]

Has the Labour winner resigned her Barnet seat then?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 5, 2018 11:06:42 GMT The Bishop said:

Has the Labour winner resigned her Barnet seat then?

It is only a few hours since she was declared elected.

There's no reason why she should resign from Barnet as long as she is still doing the work; and Barnet has full council elections coming up in May anyway.

[The Bishop]

The point is that the 6 month rule has now kicked in, so I thought she might already have done so?

Agree that she could do both jobs for a limited length of time.

[beastofbedfordshire]

Well that went well...