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Post by yellowperil on Jan 5, 2018 13:49:33 GMT
I would say it went more or less exactly to expectation. I cannot understand how any of the Tory-leaning commentators on this by-election could have expected a Conservative hold in this case given the local circumstances, i.e. 1) the only time the Tories had ever won anything in this ward was when there was a 3-member poll coinciding with the much higher turnout of a general election and the Tory candidate just snuck in in third place 2) said Tory councillor had had to resign in extremely inauspicious circumstances,let us just say 3) The Labour candidate was the wife of the poll-topping Labour councillor in the same ward, so if any party was mobilised to get the vote out it was Labour- she was also an experienced councillor on another authority. 4) the ward had traditionally low turnouts and the election was at the beginning of January, when you might expect a very low turnout anyway 5) the minor parties were in a very weak state and hardly likely to make any impact on the Labour vote 6) given that the Tories hold all but 4 seats on Hertsmere council, there was hardly an imperative to try to grab this one, unless you believe you cannot be satisfied until you hold every single seat. In all those circumstances some Tory enthusiasts still expected to win the seat! What were they on? |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 5, 2018 14:02:06 GMT
I would say it went more or less exactly to expectation. I cannot understand how any of the Tory-leaning commentators on this by-election could have expected a Conservative hold in this case given the local circumstances, i.e. 1) the only time the Tories had ever won anything in this ward was when there was a 3-member poll coinciding with the much higher turnout of a general election and the Tory candidate just snuck in in third place 2) said Tory councillor had had to resign in extremely inauspicious circumstances,let us just say 3) The Labour candidate was the wife of the poll-topping Labour councillor in the same ward, so if any party was mobilised to get the vote out it was Labour- she was also an experienced councillor on another authority. 4) the ward had traditionally low turnouts and the election was at the beginning of January, when you might expect a very low turnout anyway 5) the minor parties were in a very weak state and hardly likely to make any impact on the Labour vote 6) given that the Tories hold all but 4 seats on Hertsmere council, there was hardly an imperative to try to grab this one, unless you believe you cannot be satisfied until you hold every single seat. In all those circumstances some Tory enthusiasts still expected to win the seat! What were they on? You are referring to me as the sole one to have 'foolishly' opted for hold! I knew I was on a loser when I saw Pete's prediction. I don't take this very seriously and was unaware of most of your most pertinent analysis. I worked purely on basis that it was a hold and if I happened to be correct it would give me a hell of a start. I did look at the area and I thought it is embedded in a very Blue area and Blue held. It could be the sort of place fearful of immigrant incursion and with a distaste for Corbynism. It might be moving to the Blue? At this cold, dark, dead time, with a very low poll and no independent to muddy it, and minor parties hardly worth being there, a surprise hold on a small determined Blue core could come off? WRONG! |
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Post by tonygreaves on Jan 5, 2018 15:08:25 GMT
Is Cowley Hill an old London overspill area?
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 5, 2018 15:58:59 GMT
You are referring to me as the sole one to have 'foolishly' opted for hold! I knew I was on a loser when I saw Pete's prediction. I don't take this very seriously and was unaware of most of your most pertinent analysis. I worked purely on basis that it was a hold and if I happened to be correct it would give me a hell of a start. I did look at the area and I thought it is embedded in a very Blue area and Blue held. It could be the sort of place fearful of immigrant incursion and with a distaste for Corbynism. It might be moving to the Blue? At this cold, dark, dead time, with a very low poll and no independent to muddy it, and minor parties hardly worth being there, a surprise hold on a small determined Blue core could come off? WRONG! Wasn't particularly an attack on you Carlton, unless you choose to take it that way! On the prediction thread you were indeed the only one of 18 to go for the Tory hold but in that game you have sometimes to take a gamble and just sometimes things happen which shouldn't and you get the glory! But there was also a tie forecast and a number of others expecting a close result, and anyway my comment was rather directed at comments in other places, such as the expression of surprise from the Beast above. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 5, 2018 16:32:32 GMT
You are referring to me as the sole one to have 'foolishly' opted for hold! I knew I was on a loser when I saw Pete's prediction. I don't take this very seriously and was unaware of most of your most pertinent analysis. I worked purely on basis that it was a hold and if I happened to be correct it would give me a hell of a start. I did look at the area and I thought it is embedded in a very Blue area and Blue held. It could be the sort of place fearful of immigrant incursion and with a distaste for Corbynism. It might be moving to the Blue? At this cold, dark, dead time, with a very low poll and no independent to muddy it, and minor parties hardly worth being there, a surprise hold on a small determined Blue core could come off? WRONG! Wasn't particularly an attack on you Carlton, unless you choose to take it that way! On the prediction thread you were indeed the only one of 18 to go for the Tory hold but in that game you have sometimes to take a gamble and just sometimes things happen which shouldn't and you get the glory! But there was also a tie forecast and a number of others expecting a close result, and anyway my comment was rather directed at comments in other places, such as the expression of surprise from the Beast above. No. Not at all. Not from you, and it was a response to another poster, but I was the only one in the frame on the night, so a bit of self-justification and confession. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jan 5, 2018 18:05:54 GMT
I would say it went more or less exactly to expectation. I cannot understand how any of the Tory-leaning commentators on this by-election could have expected a Conservative hold in this case given the local circumstances, i.e. 1) the only time the Tories had ever won anything in this ward was when there was a 3-member poll coinciding with the much higher turnout of a general election and the Tory candidate just snuck in in third place 2) said Tory councillor had had to resign in extremely inauspicious circumstances,let us just say 3) The Labour candidate was the wife of the poll-topping Labour councillor in the same ward, so if any party was mobilised to get the vote out it was Labour- she was also an experienced councillor on another authority. 4) the ward had traditionally low turnouts and the election was at the beginning of January, when you might expect a very low turnout anyway 5) the minor parties were in a very weak state and hardly likely to make any impact on the Labour vote 6) given that the Tories hold all but 4 seats on Hertsmere council, there was hardly an imperative to try to grab this one, unless you believe you cannot be satisfied until you hold every single seat. In all those circumstances some Tory enthusiasts still expected to win the seat! What were they on? Didn't really expect us to hold but it was the gap between the 2 parties that concerned me a bit. |
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Post by mattb on Jan 5, 2018 22:33:56 GMT
Is Cowley Hill an old London overspill area? Yes |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 6, 2018 10:36:35 GMT
I would say it went more or less exactly to expectation. I cannot understand how any of the Tory-leaning commentators on this by-election could have expected a Conservative hold in this case given the local circumstances, i.e. 1) the only time the Tories had ever won anything in this ward was when there was a 3-member poll coinciding with the much higher turnout of a general election and the Tory candidate just snuck in in third place 2) said Tory councillor had had to resign in extremely inauspicious circumstances,let us just say 3) The Labour candidate was the wife of the poll-topping Labour councillor in the same ward, so if any party was mobilised to get the vote out it was Labour- she was also an experienced councillor on another authority. 4) the ward had traditionally low turnouts and the election was at the beginning of January, when you might expect a very low turnout anyway 5) the minor parties were in a very weak state and hardly likely to make any impact on the Labour vote 6) given that the Tories hold all but 4 seats on Hertsmere council, there was hardly an imperative to try to grab this one, unless you believe you cannot be satisfied until you hold every single seat. In all those circumstances some Tory enthusiasts still expected to win the seat! What were they on? Didn't really expect us to hold but it was the gap between the 2 parties that concerned me a bit. It's a by-election. It's not worth reading too much into it. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 6, 2018 11:04:36 GMT
Didn't really expect us to hold but it was the gap between the 2 parties that concerned me a bit. It's a by-election. It's not worth reading too much into it. By -elections are of course endlessly fascinating in their own right if you are one of the many by-election obsessives on this forum. If you mean one should not try to draw any wider conclusions from a particular by election as to e.g. the relative standing of the parties nationally, of course you are absolutely right. If you have a great bundle of by-election results you can maybe get some idea of how things are going, but even then only with a lot of caution. Best just to enjoy the local play of forces, personalities, etc, for their own fascination. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Jan 6, 2018 20:31:23 GMT
Potential trends can often be seen first in local by-elections (take as a bundle not individually) precisely because they are the easiest elections in which voters can detach themselves from their normal habits. But one result does not create a trend!
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Jan 6, 2018 21:00:19 GMT
As I recall Rallings & Thrasher created a model in the run-up to the 2015 GE using the changes recorded in the hundreds of by-elections and, like the polls, it incorrectly predicted a hung parliament. When these electors are dwarfed on a general election day these by-elections can be just as unrepresentative as they are representative.
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