|
|
Post by marksenior on Sept 26, 2012 20:21:58 GMT
Is he using the "unadjusted" figures, perhaps?? thetop - Harry is presumably using universal national swing, something he knows as well as us won't be the case on election day  I am indeed using the unadjusted figures (because they list ALL parties that will contest the next election including Plaid, SNP, UKIP, Green and BNP) and I use the combination of both national swing and ratio as used in UK-Elect (which got the last election 95% correct) Sorry , Harry , that is just ludicrous . |
|
tricky
Lib Dem
Building a stronger economy and a fairer society so everyone can get on in life
Posts: 1,420
|
Post by tricky on Sept 29, 2012 21:28:32 GMT
Is he using the "unadjusted" figures, perhaps?? thetop - Harry is presumably using universal national swing, something he knows as well as us won't be the case on election day I am indeed using the unadjusted figures (because they list ALL parties that will contest the next election including Plaid, SNP, UKIP, Green and BNP) and I use the combination of both national swing and ratio as used in UK-Elect (which got the last election 95% correct) 95% correct is pretty useless when you consider how many seats are never in doubt. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2012 22:28:13 GMT
another sub 30 tory poll
Opinium online poll for the Observer has CON 29%/LAB 39%/LD 10%/UKIP 10%.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 29, 2012 22:31:57 GMT
Here's a funny poll.
/photo/1/large
Actually it's not a poll, it's a self-selecting survey, but it's still funny.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2012 7:03:47 GMT
Comres/ Independent:
Lab 38, Tories 35, LD 15, Others 12.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2012 9:31:06 GMT
It would not surprise me in the least if the next GE produces figures in those areas. But, we should of course use every political cliche in the business to caveat that....
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2012 11:38:25 GMT
Yep, the ComRes poll would be fine if it was a forecast of the actual GE result in 2015. Trouble is, it's not |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2012 21:08:44 GMT
Latest Opinium poll for the Observer has CON 30/LAB 41/LD 9 - so LAB up 2 on last week.
EdM's personal ratings with Opinium move to best ever. He's now a net -10%/ Dave -21%/Clegg -48%.
from Mike Smithson
that Comres one simply after a few days looks a total rogue
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2012 21:15:19 GMT
YouGov for S Times have CON 31%, LAB 45%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%. So LAB 14% ahead
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2012 9:20:35 GMT
Ed's rating on YouGov moves from minus 29 to minus 9 in a week.......
|
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
|
Post by Pimpernal on Oct 7, 2012 9:35:53 GMT
Latest Opinium poll for the Observer has CON 30/LAB 41/LD 9 and UKIP 11%
2% ahead of the Dead Limbs again...
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2012 9:46:50 GMT
Is there an echo in here??
|
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
|
Post by Pimpernal on Oct 7, 2012 10:19:32 GMT
Is there an echo in here?? Labour might like to ignore the UKIP polling, but we won't... |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2012 10:36:38 GMT
Far from it, pal - with UKIP at these levels it is impossible for the Tories to win a GE |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2012 10:44:09 GMT
It was impossible on 2010 !!
|
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
|
Post by Pimpernal on Oct 7, 2012 10:59:42 GMT
Far from it, pal - with UKIP at these levels it is impossible for the Tories to win a GE Tragic isn't it ;D |
|
|
|
Post by comicbookguy on Oct 8, 2012 18:46:54 GMT
I wonder where UKIP will be in the Westminster polls in the summer of 2014 - in 2009 and 2004 they got a strong boost from the Euros.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 18:59:04 GMT
It will be interesting to see what the polls say a week or two after the Conservative conference is over. One may well ask why we have polls during the conference season at all as they usually give each party usually gets a bit of a temporary artificial boost, but I suppose it's interesting for the academics, people like us. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 19:11:42 GMT
well our ratings are pretty consistent with what was before ?
|
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Oct 8, 2012 19:25:23 GMT
I wonder where UKIP will be in the Westminster polls in the summer of 2014 - in 2009 and 2004 they got a strong boost from the Euros. No they didn't . ICM in July/August 2004 had UKIP at 1-3% in Westminster VI and in July/August 2009 they had UKIP at 3% |
|
