The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2012 21:44:41 GMT
Why haven't we got a proper YouGov, FFS??  we did, usual 8% lead now Sorry, thought your previous message was referring to that. This sub-sample (from ComRes) is as meaningless as any other with such a huge MoE. I am astonished that Smithson got so excited about it - then again, maybe not |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2012 21:06:49 GMT
Only mention the Daily YG if something significant and here it is
Latest YouGov/The Sun results 27th March CON 33%, LAB 43%, LD 9%; APP -35
two significant things , one obvious
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2012 21:09:47 GMT
I see what you did there  Indeed, the approval rating is an all-time low since the GE. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2012 21:13:16 GMT
so a question, in polling terms has a budget ever been so negatively received as this one ?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2012 21:24:23 GMT
so a question, in polling terms has a budget ever been so negatively received as this one ? The only one I can think of is the 2008 one - after which Labour's ratings fell markedly. But it's not just that is it? Today we have postal charges soaring, for example - the sort of thing many "ordinary" voters notice...... |
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Post by kvasir on Mar 27, 2012 21:42:25 GMT
Interesting Times. The By-election on Thursday in Bradford West, Labour (hopefully preventing any Respect "surge" )should maintain a strong vote. Then on to the Locals, London Mayor, General Assemby, Local Councils. Couldn't be happening at a better time really. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 27, 2012 21:46:44 GMT
Won't help you in London - Livingstone is finished
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Post by kvasir on Mar 27, 2012 21:57:59 GMT
Won't help you in London - Livingstone is finished Based on what evidence? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 27, 2012 22:20:57 GMT
Won't help you in London - Livingstone is finished Based on what evidence? To be fair, he's been sinking in the polls at the same time as Labour was holding steady. Our recent increases may benefit him also, but he's a long way from holding all Labour support and several papers plus the Boris campaign undoubtedly have been saving up a lot to hit him with that they haven't yet deployed. |
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Post by kvasir on Mar 27, 2012 22:25:04 GMT
To be fair, he's been sinking in the polls at the same time as Labour was holding steady. Our recent increases may benefit him also, but he's a long way from holding all Labour support and several papers plus the Boris campaign undoubtedly have been saving up a lot to hit him with that they haven't yet deployed. I don't dispute that he's got a tough road ahead, I just object to the phrase "he's finished" considering we still have 5-6 weeks... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 27, 2012 22:52:57 GMT
Well he's shedding support on a daily basis so another five or six weeks of bad headlines will indeed finish him. Point anyway is that support for Labour in national polls isn't going to be all that relevant in this contest (though of course it will be to a much greater extent in the Assembly elections)
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Post by kvasir on Mar 27, 2012 22:58:46 GMT
Well he's shedding support on a daily basis so another five or six weeks of bad headlines will indeed finish him. Point anyway is that support for Labour in national polls isn't going to be all that relevant in this contest (though of course it will be to a much greater extent in the Assembly elections) I agree, and there is broad agreement on the board on this I feel, that the Ken Livingstone-Borris Johnson battle is more about personality then most contests normally are; very presidential. Now I think Labour been hire in the polls rather than down will have some effect on the race but less than general council elections which are often protests to the current government. In my view it is too early to say he's finished based on an interpolation of the current trend. That is normally a dangerous assumption. Polls go up and down and change gradient. We'll see what happens. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2012 21:32:21 GMT
YouGov has now shown 10-point Labour leads for three nights in a row - a first since the GE, apparently.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2012 21:35:33 GMT
you can not say Ken is finished when Boris is still there and able to mess it up for himself, plenty of ammo there as well.
It may just come down to GOTV on the day.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 30, 2012 7:45:58 GMT
I don't know if there's enough voting factories in Tower Hamlets to compensate for all the normally Labour voters who will be either sitting it out or voting for Boris
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2012 8:41:08 GMT
Interesting Times. The By-election on Thursday in Bradford West, Labour (hopefully preventing any Respect "surge" )should maintain a strong vote. Then on to the Locals, London Mayor, General Assemby, Local Councils. Couldn't be happening at a better time really. This doesn't look quite so good now does it, although I don't dispute that Labour will gain council seats and councils in May from their low 2008 base. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 30, 2012 10:08:41 GMT
This doesn't look quite so good now does it, although I don't dispute that Labour will gain council seats and councils in May from their low 2008 base Labour gained ground in local by-elections last night, simultaneously with Bradford. Which was, in every sense, a freak result - whose applicability to national politics is close to zero. The main danger for Labour is that certain people will try to use it for their own ends |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 30, 2012 10:33:31 GMT
There are quite a few other parts of the country with large numbers of muslim voters Bish and this is an increasingly important part of Labour's core support. God knows if Ken Livingstone contrived to lose the muslim vote he'd only have the blacks backing him
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 30, 2012 11:09:02 GMT
Not denying that, but as I said Galloway can't stand in every seat with a significant Muslim population. Thankfully.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2012 12:16:59 GMT
There are quite a few other parts of the country with large numbers of muslim voters Bish and this is an increasingly important part of Labour's core support. God knows if Ken Livingstone contrived to lose the muslim vote he'd only have the blacks backing him except Pete, when Galloway was doing well he only picked up odd seats here and there and could not win Hall Green with the next best they have. Galloway is a pure rabble rouser, capable of what we saw but burns out quickly |
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