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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2017 22:29:33 GMT
Czech presidential election coming up on January 12-13 (two election days as always in Czechia). ANO have decided neither to field a candidate nor endorse one.
Incumbent Milos Zeman is running again supported by his own Party of Civic Rights. He is certain of getting to the run-off, but refuse to participate in presidential debates and have done very little campaigning, and that arrogant attitude might cost him the election.
The polls have the former President of the Czech Academy of Sciences Jiří Drahoš (68) as the most likely challenger in the run-off at the moment. He is a physical chemist and supported by the KDU–ČSL and STAN. The other likely contenders are former PM and ODS leader Mirek Topolánek (61), who is nominally an independent, but backed by ODS; and the poet, journalist and music producer Michal Horáček (65), who is running on a fairly leftist platform, but refuse to identify with either side and has flip-flopped on immigration (he is now posing as a hardliner).
Polling is rather volatile, but Drahoš numbers have generally been declining - until recently he seemed certain to reach the run-off. Horáček has issued contradicting statements on immigration, which probably dooms him.
The also rans are:
Pavel Fischer, Independent
Petr Hannig, Party of Common Sense, backed by National Democracy (both Far Right, the anti-Zionism of NatDem is de facto anti-Semitism)
Marek Hilšer, Independent
Jiří Hynek, Realists (a Hard Right Conservative micro party)
Vratislav Kulhánek, Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA, a new successor party to the original ODA)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2017 22:35:47 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2017 1:42:05 GMT
Neither the Communists (KSČM), nor the Social Democrats (ČSSD) have endorsed a presidential candidate (SocDem leader leader Bohuslav Sobotka is still mad at Zeman for his handling of the government crisis in May), but a couple of ČSSD branches have endorsed Zeman anyway. While the Young Social Democrats have endorsed Drahoš.
Zeman has been endorsed by the far right SPD (Tomio Okamura's party).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 19, 2017 18:37:03 GMT
Brief research suggests I'd rather not vote for any of them!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2017 15:14:14 GMT
The big joker in this election is how high turnout will be in a poll for a non-executive office coming right after an intense parliamentary election, whose consequences are still unclear (as ANO haven't secured a workable majority). It may not reach the top of the political and news agenda until the final week.
Zeman will be supported by the most nationalist and/or SoCon part of the population (apart from Christian Democratic core voters), and will get the SPD and Communist vote, and probably a plurality of ANO voters and most of the elderly Social Democrats. He needs a high turnout in rural and small town areas, but may have become too dramatic and ostentatious for some (in some ways his style isn't very Czechish). City voters generally dislike him, but whether the anti-Zeman sentiment is strong enough to actually get enough urbanites to the polls remain to be seen. Most observers seem to think Drahoš will narrowly win a run-off, but that Zeman is favoured if his opponent is Horáček or Topolánek, although the latter has a somewhat better chance. This is supported by the polls, but polling has been rather volatile and the picture is far from unambigious.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 13, 2018 13:35:15 GMT
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 13, 2018 14:00:04 GMT
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 13, 2018 14:07:29 GMT
With 40% counted Zeman is ahead (42%) of Drahos (25%). Zeman will continue to sink slightly, i assume.
The 2 recent polls predicted roughly this OutCome and have for the RunOff Drahos in front (48:44).
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 13, 2018 15:27:10 GMT
I have not followed Czech politics much at all since the heady days of the Velvet Revolution when I was in the thick of it and since then it has all seemed so much of a let down I haven't been able to care very much, and from what I see of the candidates I am inclined to agree with Devil above that I wouldn't care much for any of them, but I like the presentation of the first stage results- just interested to see what is worth recording about each candidate on the ballot paper like the educational qualifications of the candidates and the source of the nomination. Of course the whole concept of a presidential election of this sort is an unfamiliar one to the average British voter, but its also a far cry from say an American presidential election. Interesting too that with 40% of the votes in Zeman is well ahead of Drahos, but it seems that should mean Drahos will win. What is it about the structure of the vote that makes that likely?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 13, 2018 15:28:53 GMT
98%:
39% Zeman
26.5% Drahos
So, Zeman finally underperformed and should be the underdog in the SecondRound.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 13, 2018 15:37:45 GMT
I have not followed Czech politics much at all since the heady days of the Velvet Revolution when I was in the thick of it and since then it has all seemed so much of a let down I haven't been able to care very much, and from what I see of the candidates I am inclined to agree with Devil above that I wouldn't care much for any of them, but I like the presentation of the first stage results- just interested to see what is worth recording about each candidate on the ballot paper like the educational qualifications of the candidates and the source of the nomination. Of course the whole concept of a presidential election of this sort is an unfamiliar one to the average British voter, but its also a far cry from say an American presidential election. Interesting too that with 40% of the votes in Zeman is well ahead of Drahos, but it seems that should mean Drahos will win. What is it about the structure of the vote that makes that likely? The OpinionPolls for fictional RunOffs indicate, that the urban "Liberals" (Pirates, TOP09, partly ODS and CSSD) will assemble behind any antiZeman-candidate. A chance for Zeman would have been an unpopular Anti-Babis-coalition. Zeman's only remaining hope will be a low TurnOut in the cities. How many elections have You hosted, by the way? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 13, 2018 20:29:39 GMT
I have not followed Czech politics much at all since the heady days of the Velvet Revolution when I was in the thick of it This feels like a story worth explaining! |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 13, 2018 21:44:34 GMT
I have not followed Czech politics much at all since the heady days of the Velvet Revolution when I was in the thick of it This feels like a story worth explaining! I have said something about this before, I think, though I appreciate people don't necessarily follow every post on every thread.My wife and I spent much of December '89 (including Christmas) in and around Prague so were eye witnesses to much of went on in those momentous days I did have quite a collection of handbills and posters from those days as part of my collection of political memorabilia but they didn't survive my house fire in '97, unfortunately. We managed to keep out of trouble mostly though Eileen did actually briefly get locked up in a police station on Christmas Day ( that was in Melnik) but there were tremendous mood swings all the time -I can remember being in a restaurant in the centre of Prague one day when a car backfired outside and we were looking round and realised everybody else had dived to the floor- very edgy. But being in the heart of Prague dancing in the streets and being kissed by everyone in sight on the day Havel was elected President was very memorable. Heady days and we haven't felt able to go back to Prague since- it just wouldn't be the same. As I've said elsewhere we have spent much of our lives being in key places at interesting times, we seemed to have the knack of it, but that is up with any of them for sheer exhilaration |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 26, 2018 23:56:52 GMT
According to foreign reports, Drahos performed badly in the TeleVision-debates (mostly defending his political inexperience). As a result the polls have been tightening and Zeman has the momentum, but on the other hand he had been overpolled before the first round.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 27, 2018 13:52:28 GMT
24% are counted and Zeman is "standing" (or rather: sinking) at 56.5%.
Unfortunately they don't release ExitPolls or projections, but in the FirstRound Zeman lost compared to this stage ~4-5%, so it should be enough for him to survive the data from Prague (where a high TurnOut is reported, though).
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 27, 2018 14:22:25 GMT
Despite the different PartyLabels, the similarity with Austria is striking!
(And the main difference is, that the national-socialistic Zeman is more radical than FPÖ's Hofer...)
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 27, 2018 14:50:11 GMT
Despite the different PartyLabels, the similarity with Austria is striking! (And the main difference is, that the national-socialistic Zeman is more radical than FPÖ's Hofer...) 96%: 52% Zeman. Babis relying on Zeman - could become interesting for the whole EU! |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 27, 2018 16:34:09 GMT
The cities:
Pop.2017 - name - TurnOut - Zeman
1.281. Praha/Prag/Prague 71 - 31
378. Brno/Brünn 66 - 42
292. Ostrava/Ostrau 59 - 63
171. Plsen/Pilsen 66 - 48
104. Liberec/Reichenberg 66 - 44
100. Olmouc/Olmütz 67 - 48
93. CeskeBudejovice/Budweis 67 - 47
93. UstiNadLabem/Aussig 57 - 58
93. HradecKralove/Königgrätz 71 - 45
90. Pardubice 68 - 47
75. Zlin 69 - 48
So, Zeman won those industrial-deprived cities in the north, which had a slightly lower participation.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 27, 2018 21:52:15 GMT
Wouldn't surprise me, if the "liberal" ANO will agree suspiciously soonly on a coalition/support with/by KSCM&SPD (EU's HorrorVision).
These days Zeman appears as a reborn Benes-nazi, but when he was PM, he was a quite normal SocialDemocrat, as far as i remember?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 29, 2018 9:48:06 GMT
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