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Post by middleenglander on Dec 3, 2017 17:23:35 GMT
There are 12 by-elections during December:
* 2 on Thursday 7 December
* 2 on Wednesday 13 December
* 8 on Thursday 14 December
7 of by-elections are for District Councils
- 3 have "all out" elections every 4 years, the last in 2015; 2 are three member wards, 1 a single member ward
- 2 are three member wards that had "all out" elections in 2016, previously "annual" elections
- 2 are wards electing "annually, 1 a three member ward, the other two member
3 are in Metropolitan Boroughs last contested in 2016
1 is in a 2 member Unitary ward last contested in 2015 and
1 a London Borough last contested in 2014
Conservatives are defending 3 seats, 2 following the death of the previous Councillor, 2 a resignation
Labour defend 7 seats, 3 after a death and 4 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats, 1 following a death and 1 a resignation
Conservatives and Labour each have 12 candidates, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 8, UKIP 2 along with 4 Independents contesting 3 seats and 1 Localist
- a total of 49 candidates for the 12 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the by-election.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2017 22:14:23 GMT
7th December: Lab hold Enfield Highway, LibDem gain Newport.
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 6, 2017 8:40:46 GMT
7th December: Lab hold Enfield Highway, LibDem gain Newport. Welcome to the prediction thread. You are of course free to post your predictions on this thread in any form you chose. But if you look back over past months you should realise that the rules of this particular competition require you not just to say who will win but to predict the percentage vote for each candidate- a much more challenging requirement. I would encourage you to have a go- It's difficult but great fun as long as you don't take it too seriously. Prediction needs to be in by 9am on Thursday. |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 6, 2017 22:59:55 GMT
My predictions for tomorrow's by-elections:
Enfield LBC, Highway: Labour 61, Conservative 33, Green 6.
North Devon DC, Newport: Liberal Democrats 40, Conservative 28, Green 25, Labour 7.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 6, 2017 23:33:15 GMT
Enfield: Lab 68 Con 24 Green 8
North Devon: LD 50 Con 27 Green 13 Lab 10
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 7, 2017 0:26:38 GMT
Enfield: Lab 72 Con 23 Green 5
North Devon: LD 39 Con 37 Green 16 Lab 8
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 7, 2017 0:40:10 GMT
ENFIELD Enfield Highway: Lab 63, C 29, GP 8
NORTH DEVON Newport: L Dem 45, C 35, GP 12, Lab 8
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 7, 2017 1:49:21 GMT
Enfield. Enfield Highway: Lab 71, Con 21, Green 8
North Devon,Newport: LD 40, Con 38, Green 13, Lab 9
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Post by andrewp on Dec 7, 2017 7:42:37 GMT
Enfield, Enfield Highway Lab 68, Con 24, Green 8
North Devon, Newport Lib Dem 41, Con 34, Green 17, Lab 8
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2017 7:55:27 GMT
ENFIELD LBC - Enfield Highway: Con 25, Lab 72, Green 3
NORTH DEVON DC - Newport: Con 31, Lab 5, L Dem 41, GP 23
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Post by hempie on Dec 7, 2017 8:25:54 GMT
Enfield, Enfield Highway: Lab 68, Con 24, Green 8
North Devon, Newport: LD 46, Con 30, Green 16, Lab 8
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Post by Ruggerman on Dec 7, 2017 8:32:37 GMT
Enfield, Enfield Highway: Lab; 65, Con; 23, Green 12
North Devon, Newport: LD; 43, Con; 34, Green; 13, Lab; 10
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 7, 2017 9:56:51 GMT
Somewhat daunting to see the 100% prediction of a Lib Dem gain in Newport which has lately been the most Tory ward in the Barnstaple area, even if it was comfortably Lib Dem back in the 90s. Even the Beast was forecasting a Lib Dem gain, after the surprises of last week. My own feeling is that it is likely to be close and by no means a foregone conclusion, but if the more upbeat forecasts here prove to be right I will of course be delighted.
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Post by samdwebber on Dec 7, 2017 16:09:15 GMT
Also predicting a Lib Dem gain and with an exclusive quote from former North Devon MP Sir Nick Harvey look no further and do retweet:
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 7, 2017 21:29:02 GMT
9 entries again for the first week of December.
Enfield, Enfield Highway: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 34% (David Boothroyd) to 50% (Yellow Peril)
North Devon, Newport: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority from 2% (Robert Waller and Yellow Peril) to 23% (Lancastrian)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 7, 2017 21:30:10 GMT
9 entries again for the first week of December. Enfield, Enfield Highway: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 34% (David Boothroyd) to 50% (Yellow Peril) North Devon, Newport: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority from 2% (Robert Waller and Yellow Peril) to 23% (Lancastrian) Seems to be a lot of confidence of an LD win in North Devon, I'm surprised it is unanimous. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 7, 2017 23:46:45 GMT
Think I did best in Barnstaple and William Hone 'won' Enfield ...  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2017 23:58:55 GMT
Think I did best in Barnstaple and William Hone 'won' Enfield ... Which one are you Smashy or Nicey? |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 8, 2017 0:11:04 GMT
For week 1:
| Authority | Enfield | North Devon | Week 1 | Week 1 | Ward | Enfield Highway | Newport | faults | position | andrewp | 9.2
| 6.7
| 15.9
| 2nd
| David Boothroyd | 13.7
| 12.4
| 26.1
| 6th
| greenrobinhood | 17.7
| 20.7
| 38.4
| 9th
| hempie | 9.2
| 14.7
| 23.9
| 5th
| Lancastrian | 9.2
| 25.9
| 35.1
| 8th
| Robert Waller | 7.5
| 0.7
| 8.2
| 1st
| Ruggerman | 17.2
| 11.9
| 29.1
| 7th
| WilliamHone | 4.3
| 18.7
| 23.1
| 4th
| Yellow Peril | 11.5
| 5.6
| 17.1
| 3rd
| Total faults | 99.4
| 117.5
| 216.9
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 2 by-elections next Wednesday and 8 on Thursday to complete the year. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of by-election.
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 8, 2017 1:44:25 GMT
Congratulations to Robert: 8.2 faults for a week - wow! Mind you, weren't we all good for once! Don't anyone spoil it by forgetting the extra Wednesday elections next week.
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