Council by-elections 2010 to 2017

[middleenglander]

There were 348 seats contested in local council by-elections during 2017, with 102 (or 29%) changing hands. This is the highest number of by-elections in a calendar year since the sequence was started in 2010, although similar to 2013 an identical stage of the electoral cycle as far as England is concerned. The proportion changing hands is "par for the course".

The analysis can be summarised by:

Year	England	England	Scotland	Scotland	Wales	Wales	GB total	GB total
	number	changing	number	changing	number	changing	number	changing
2017	337	29%	8	38%	3	33%	348	29%
2016	279	29%	18	72%	23	30%	320	32%
2015	184	22%	38	29%	29	24%	251	24%
2014	239	31%	17	41%	15	27%	271	31%
2013	310	29%	14	43%	13	8%	337	29%
2012	232	25%	3	100%	8	63%	243	27%
2011	162	28%	18	44%	12	75%	192	32%
2010	261	30%	4	25%	16	38%	281	31%

The comparison for England only between 2017 and 2013, a similar period period of the electoral cycle, is given by:

	2017	2017	2017	2013	2013	2013
	number of by-elections	number changed	proportion changed	number of by-elections	number changed	proportion changed
January to April	49	25	51%	47	13	28%
May election day	107	23	21%	114	28	25%
Rest of May to August	78	18	23%	56	24	43%
September & October	60	19	32%	53	12	23%
November & December	43	13	30%	40	13	33%
Year total	337	98	29%	310	90	29%

There were 27 more elections in 2017 than 2013, some 14 being either directly or indirectly attributable to the General Election and the introduction of new Executive Mayors.  Taking these into account, the profile of elections throughout the year was similar in the two years whilst the overall proportion of seats changing hands was almost identical.

The electoral characteristics can be summarised by:

	Candidates	Contested	Defended    ^	Proportion	Retained	Retention    rate	Gained	Lost	Won	Proportion
Conservative	343	99%	169	49%	124	73%	32	45	156	45%
Labour	303	87%	118	34%	97	82%	20	21	117	34%
Liberal Democrat	277	80%	27	8%	18	67%	29	9	47	14%
Green	183	53%	1		1	100%	6	0	7	2%
UKIP	140	40%	14	4%	0	0%	1	14	1
Others	140		19	5%	6	32%	14	13	20	6%
Total	1,386		348	100%	246	71%	102	102	348	100%

^ based on when elected, not sitting as at time vacancy occurred.

Conservatives contested nearly 99% of the seats, Labour 87%, Liberal Democrat 80%, Greens 53% and UKIP 40%.
Nearly half the vacancies occurred in Conservative held seats and one third in Labour held.
Conservatives retained 73% of the seats defended, Labour 82%, Liberal Democrats 67% but UKIP lost all the ones they defended.
Conservatives had a net loss of 13 during the year, Labour 1 net loss, Liberal Democrats 20 net gain, Greens net 6 gain, UKIP net 13 loss and others 1 net gain

The by-election gains and losses in 2017 can be further analysed:

	Con       gain	Lab       gain	LD       gain	SNP       gain	Plaid       gain	Green       gain	UKIP       gain	Ind       gain	Localist       gain	Other       gain	Total
Conservative loss	-	12	20			4		4	4	1	45
Labour loss	16	-	5								21
Liberal Democrat   loss	4	1	-					2	2		9
SNP loss				-
Plaid Cymru loss					-
Green loss						-
UKIP loss	4	5	4			1	-				14
Independent loss	7	1				1	1	-	1		11
Localist loss	1	1							-		2
Other loss										-
Total	32	20	29			6	1	6	7	1	102

The year can be seen in 2 halves - pre-General Election (including GE day) and post-GE. 
There were 197 seats contested in by-elections during the first period compared to 151 in the second.

	Up to 8 June	Up to 8 June	After 8 June	After 8 June	2017 total	2017 total
	gains	losses	gains	losses	gains	losses
Conservative	23	22	9	23	32	45
Labour	7	15	13	6	20	21
Liberal Democrat	16	5	13	4	29	9
Green	3		3		6
UKIP	1	8		6	1	14
Other	6	6	8	7	14	13
Total	56	56	46	46	102	102

Labour has done somewhat better during the second half of the year than in the first with the Conservatives correspondingly worse, but not dramatically so.  All other parties have done broadly the same in both periods.

And finally, how have the gains and losses compared to previous years:

	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
	gains	gains	gains	gains	gains	losses	losses	losses	losses	losses	net	net	net	net	net
Conservative	32	17	26	17	17	45	49	10	27	47	-13	-32	+16	-10	-30
Labour	20	16	10	16	30	21	23	13	16	9	-1	-7	-3	0	+21
Liberal Democrat	29	31	8	14	15	9	3	8	8	19	+20	+28	0	+6	-4
Green	6	2	1	5	1	0	1	3	2	3	+6	+1	-2	+3	-2
UKIP	1	6	3	14	15	14	9	13	4	3	-13	-3	-10	+10	+12
Other	14	29	11	18	19	13	16	12	27	16	+1	+13	-1	-9	+3
Total	102	101	59	84	97	102	101	59	84	97

In short no substantial change.  Conservative and Liberal Democrat have done better on a net basis than 2013 (comparable stage of the Local Government electoral cycle) whilst Labour and UKIP worse.