Votes at 16 : Election 2017

[Harry Hayfield]

The Daily Mirror's website carried the report on what would have happened if 16 and 17 year olds had voted at the election Election 2017 with Votes at 16 and used data from the ONS and the You Gov Exit poll to determine what would have happened. Now, there are a lot of caveats to this not least that a) would all 16 and 17 year olds in a constituency register, b) would the 59% turnout amongst 18 and 19 year olds have happened and c) would Labour's 66% - 19% demolition of the Conservatives have happened? But assuming those things did happen in England (the data does not allow for a realistic calculation of Wales and Scotland's data cannot be found) here is what would have happened in England

Conservatives 12,516,350 votes (45%) winning 291 seats
Labour 11,873,825 votes (43%) winning 233 seats
Liberal Democrats 2,191,178 votes (8%) winning 8 seats
Green Party 522,773 votes (2%) winning 1 seat
United Kingdom Independence Party 564,924 votes (2%) winning 0 seats
Other Parties 220,145 votes (1%) winning 0 seats
Conservative lead of 642,525 votes (2%)

The seats that would have changed hands are: Southampton Itchen, Thurrock, Hastings and Rye, Chipping Barnet, Pudsey, Calder Valley

As the maximum majority flipped under this calculation is the 609 Conservative majority in Calder Valley, I do not believe that any other majority more than that would have changed hands, therefore I believe the following seats in Scotland and Wales would also have flipped under this calculation

Scottish Seats
Labour GAIN Lanark from SNP, Glasgow South West from SNP, Glasgow East from SNP, Motherwell and Wishaw from SNP, Airdrie and Shotts from SNP, Inverclyde from SNP
Welsh Seats
Labour GAIN Arfon from Plaid, Preseli Pembrokeshire from Con

And whilst Northern Ireland does not follow the rules, it is possible that the SDLP would gain Foyle from Sinn Fein thus making the House of Commons look as follows:

Con 311, Lab 276, SNP 29, Lib Dem 12, DUP 10, SF 6, Plaid 3, SDLP 1, Green 1, Ind 1 (Con short by 11)
Coalition Builder: Con (311) + DUP (10) + Ind (1) = 322 (Government majority of 1)
Coaliton Builder: Lab (276) + SNP (29) + Plaid (3) + Green (1) + SDLP (1) = 310 (Coalition short by 12)

[Deleted]

Can't see Lady Hermon joining a coalition with the Tories after leaving the UUP over the 2010 Conservative and Unionist deal in NI

[greatkingrat]

Nov 5, 2017 11:57:17 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

As the maximum majority flipped under this calculation is the 609 Conservative majority in Calder Valley, I do not believe that any other majority more than that would have changed hands, therefore I believe the following seats in Scotland and Wales would also have flipped under this calculation

Scottish Seats
Labour GAIN Lanark from SNP, Glasgow South West from SNP, Glasgow East from SNP, Motherwell and Wishaw from SNP, Airdrie and Shotts from SNP, Inverclyde from SNP

Polls showed Labour and the SNP more or less tied amongst young voters, so it is unlikely changing the voting age would have any effect in Scotland.

[beastofbedfordshire]

The majorities in some of these seats are so small that any one of a number of factors may have changed the result.

[johnloony]

It is reasonable to think that votes for 16-and-17-year-olds would mean net gains by Labour from Conservative, but I doubt if there would be net gains from the SNP. If anything, the opposite.

[The Bishop]

Nov 7, 2017 3:45:36 GMT johnloony said:

It is reasonable to think that votes for 16-and-17-year-olds would mean net gains by Labour from Conservative, but I doubt if there would be net gains from the SNP. If anything, the opposite.

There was only one seat for the SNP to win from Labour, and the result this year suggests enfranchising 16/17 year olds would have made no difference

[beastofbedfordshire]

Unfortunately the indoctrination of the scottish population is having adverse economic impacts in the region. The left are now entrenched there and will take some beating. A possible way to reverse some of this is by trying to return to votes at 18 to limit some of the damage done.

[Deleted]

Nov 14, 2017 14:47:10 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

Unfortunately the indoctrination of the scottish population is having adverse economic impacts in the region. The left are now entrenched there and will take some beating.

Last I checked, a catch-all centrist nationalist party remains pretty entrenched in Scotland, albeit to a somewhat lesser extent than was the case a year or so ago.

[greenchristian]

Nov 14, 2017 17:50:54 GMT @benjamin said:

Nov 14, 2017 14:47:10 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

Unfortunately the indoctrination of the scottish population is having adverse economic impacts in the region. The left are now entrenched there and will take some beating.

Last I checked, a catch-all centrist nationalist party remains pretty entrenched in Scotland, albeit to a somewhat lesser extent than was the case a year or so ago.

You're forgetting that (assuming he isn't a troll) the beast thinks Thatcher was a wet.

[sirbenjamin]

Nov 15, 2017 10:07:02 GMT greenchristian said:

Nov 14, 2017 17:50:54 GMT @benjamin said:

Last I checked, a catch-all centrist nationalist party remains pretty entrenched in Scotland, albeit to a somewhat lesser extent than was the case a year or so ago.

You're forgetting that (assuming he isn't a troll) the beast thinks Thatcher was a wet.

I'm a big Ruth fan, but there must be some hardline Scottish Tories who view her in pretty much the same way as the hard left viewed Tony Blair; with a sense of disillusioned resignation and a feeling that it's all over.

(And indeed arguably the way Libertarian Tories view Theresa May right now...)

[Deleted]

Of course if we'd had votes at 16, the campaign may've been different, different manifesto pledges etc.

[beastofbedfordshire]

Nov 21, 2017 16:31:24 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Of course if we'd had votes at 16, the campaign may've been different, different manifesto pledges etc.

Why?
They don't make up a significant proportion of the electorate and even less of them would probably vote for us anyway. We'd lose more of our core votes trying to court groups like this than we'd gain.