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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 12:18:33 GMT
"United Front"   There is JCP/SDP coordination, so no openings for Left DP (JCP wouldn't accept that). It seems at least on Hokkaido the DP Left will run as independents. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2017 17:04:22 GMT
Rengō has decided to back both DP candidates running for HP and DP Left independents.
The small Aichi based Tax Cuts Japan (TCJ) will back HP as well. Aichi is a DP stronghold and the party is a splinter from the right wing of the old DPJ.
By now only JCP/SDP (and non-improved DP Left candidates) and a few micro parties are outside of the "grand opposition alliance", but HP will abstain from running against the only SDP constituency MP. Will be interesting to see if they will run against DP Left incumbents.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2017 9:58:58 GMT
For a woman who isn't running Koike features quite prominently in their campaign. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 12:35:20 GMT
DP Left leader Yukio Edano has said he intends to form a new party called the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 12:41:06 GMT
Made a quick overview of the parties (unless they merge..). Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): Broad tent (= factionalized) pro-business "party of power", in reality mostly a clientelistic patronage machine. Democratic Party (DP): Broad tent centre-leftish & liberal party with strong links to the trade unions (the main donors of their centre-left wing).
Left wing continues as Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) Komeito Party (KP): The political arm of the Buddhist layman order Soka Gakkai with a populist appeal to "the common man". Japanese Communist Party (JCP): Communists de facto turned Social Democrats. Social Democratic Party (SDP): The paltry remnants of the old Japan Socialist Party (JSP). Liberal Party (LP): Personalist vehicle for LDP defector Ichiro Ozawa. Regional party with strength in NE Honshu and populist/pro-welfare policies. (will keep going as a small continuity party under a leftist who had defected to them when they needed a fifth seat to form a faction) Japan Restoration Party (JRP): Personalist vehicle for right winger Toru Hashimoto based in Osaka and with little strength elsewhere. Hope Party (HP): New "reformist" Conservative party and vehicle of popular Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike. Remains to be seen if it has pull outside Metro Tokyo. Happiness Realization Party (HRP): The far right political arm of the Happy Science cult. No Party to Back (NPB): Protest party whose Japanese name Shiji Seito Nashi is often (less literally) translated as "None of the Above". Time for a poll? I doubt more rearranging will happen. These 9-10 (depending on whether you want to include continuity LP, which will likely only run in a couple of seats) should cover most of it. A few centre-right DP leaders who weren't accepted under the HP umbrella will run independently (as will others), so maybe an Independent category could be included. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2017 20:32:59 GMT
New Asahi poll
Government 42 (+4)
LDP 35 (+3）
KP 7 (+1）
Opposition:
Centre-right: 16 (nc)
JRP 4 (+1）
HP 12（-1）
Left: 15 (+6)
CDP 7 (new）
JCP 6（+1）
SDP 1 (-1)
LP 1 (nc)
Other leftists 0 (-1)
ex-DP x (-8)
Undecided 27 (-2)
Note: rump-LP is controlled by a leftist
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2017 9:51:44 GMT
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 22, 2017 18:46:43 GMT
Exit poll, looks like a landslide for the government  The fact that the CDP are on course to beat Hope is hilarious. The fact that Abe will remain PM unchallenged is disastrous. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 22, 2017 19:37:20 GMT
"The voter turnout in Japan’s general elections to the lower house has stood 21.83 percent, showing a 0.83-percent decrease compared to the previous vote in 2014, seven hours after the polling stations opened across the country, the Japanese Interior Ministry said Sunday. ... The highest voter turnout was recorded in Yamagata prefecture (28.9 percent), followed by Niigata prefecture (28.56 percent) and Iwate prefecture (27.54 percent). The voter turnout was the lowest in Okinawa prefecture (14.42 percent) and Saitama prefecture (17.42 percent). 14% turnout? ONE-FOUR FOURTEEN PERCENT??? That's Parish Council levels of turnout. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Oct 22, 2017 20:15:16 GMT
Exit poll, looks like a landslide for the government The fact that the CDP are on course to beat Hope is hilarious. The fact that Abe will remain PM unchallenged is disastrous. As usual the main challenge to some of Abe's proposed policies will come from inside his own party – specifically the more socially conservative elements – than from within Parliament. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 22, 2017 20:59:05 GMT
This is about as good a result as could have been expected, given the circumstances. Unexpectedly strong result for the CDP and Koike underperforming.
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 22, 2017 22:24:20 GMT
Japan really us the closest thing to a one party state in the democratic world - but in many ways it isn't a typical liberal democracy anyway. Being dominated by a Liberal Democratic party which is patently neither, for a start. ...
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2017 22:36:43 GMT
Japan really us the closest thing to a one party state in the democratic world - but in many ways it isn't a typical liberal democracy anyway. Being dominated by a Liberal Democratic party which is patently neither, for a start. ... Yes, I was just about to post the same thing: it's only a western-style democracy on the surface. I think one party has been in power for about 90% of the time since the 1950s. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Oct 22, 2017 23:52:06 GMT
Japan really us the closest thing to a one party state in the democratic world - but in many ways it isn't a typical liberal democracy anyway. Being dominated by a Liberal Democratic party which is patently neither, for a start. ... Yes, I was just about to post the same thing: it's only a western-style democracy on the surface. I think one party has been in power for about 90% of the time since the 1950s. So what does that make Bavaria?  |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Oct 23, 2017 5:10:01 GMT
Japan really us the closest thing to a one party state in the democratic world - but in many ways it isn't a typical liberal democracy anyway. Being dominated by a Liberal Democratic party which is patently neither, for a start. ... Yes, I was just about to post the same thing: it's only a western-style democracy on the surface. I think one party has been in power for about 90% of the time since the 1950s. Well, imagine what Italian politics would be like if Tangentopoli never happened and DC domination continued? (Lots of similarities between Post-War Italian politics and Post-War Japanese politics, and to answer my own question "a lot better") |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2017 14:08:18 GMT
Yes, I was just about to post the same thing: it's only a western-style democracy on the surface. I think one party has been in power for about 90% of the time since the 1950s. So what does that make Bavaria? Bavaria, like Switzerland, is a democratically-elected totalitarian state. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2017 14:09:17 GMT
Japan really us the closest thing to a one party state in the democratic world - but in many ways it isn't a typical liberal democracy anyway. Being dominated by a Liberal Democratic party which is patently neither, for a start. ... Yes, I was just about to post the same thing: it's only a western-style democracy on the surface. I think one party has been in power for about 90% of the time since the 1950s. It's Ireland on steroids. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 19:05:11 GMT
Election result (copied from Taiwanese poster on Atlas Forum)
District PR Total PR vote
LDP 215 65 280 33.3%
KP 8 21 29 12.5%
NPD 0 0 0 0.4%
JRP 3 8 11 6.1%
HP 18 32 50 17.4%
CDP 17 38 55 19.9%
SDP 1 1 2 1.7%
JCP 1 11 12 7.9%
Indies by de facto party affiliation:
LDP 4 0 4
HP 8 0 8
Joint oppositon 11 0 11
CDP 1 0 1
Ex-LP 2 0 2
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289 176 465
CDP didn't nominate enough PR candidates, so LDP will get 66 PR seats and CDP 37. Three of the four LDP "independents" have been retroactively nominated by LDP and one of the joint opposition independent has been retroactively nominated by CDP.
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 23, 2017 19:31:04 GMT
How does retroactive nomination work and what does it mean in a parallel voting system?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 21:48:18 GMT
How does retroactive nomination work and what does it mean in a parallel voting system? You are registered as a group member on equal footing with the rest and was officially always a candidate for the party. But in practical terms its no different than if you had simply joined the party afterwards. The deselected LDP candidates that ran against and beat an official LDP candidates formally becomes the official LDP candidate (history is rewritten). |
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