Japanese general election 2017

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Shinzo Abe has announced he will be requesting that the House of Representatives be dissolved for a general election on 22 October.

Elections were not due until December 2018.

[The Bishop]

Looking like an LDP landslide with the opposition in total disarray. Still, we've heard that a few other times recently.....

[Deleted]

Sept 25, 2017 9:53:31 GMT The Bishop said:

Looking like an LDP landslide with the opposition in total disarray. Still, we've heard that a few other times recently.....

Depends how quickly the Hope Party can organize. They are the biggest threat to LDP right now. 

[Deleted]

"Opposition Democrats seek merger with Tokyo gov's party - Koike's 'Party of Hope' may demand shift toward center, creating rift among Democrats

The leader of the Democratic Party met with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike Tuesday night to discuss a possible merger with her new national party, aiming to assemble a political force that can take on the dominant ruling party. Seiji Maehara is looking at a broad opposition realignment that could also include Ichiro Ozawa's Liberal Party. Koike just launched Kibo no To, or the "Party of Hope," ahead of the general election expected for Oct. 22."

asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Opposition-Democrats-seek-merger-with-Tokyo-gov-s-party

Could be a game changer.

Getting the left wing out is a prerequisite for Koike, but big parts of DP are centrist/centre-right. DP do not have a coherent ideology even if there is the trade union link to keep them somewhat anchored on the left and structurally they are the "centre-left" as the anti-LDP, but its still even less coherent than PD in Italy.

They need a preliminary deal before the HoR is dissolved on Thursday to be able to run a joint list, so we will soon know more.

[Deleted]

The House of Representatives has 475 members. 295 are elected by FPTP, the other180 are elected from 11 multi-member constituencies and allocated proportionally within the constituency (1/8 of the vote in Hokkaido gets you one of the 8 PR seats in Hokkaido). Like in South Korea the distribution of the list seats aren't affected by the FPTP votes, its strictly parallel voting.

The PR constituencies are: Hokkaido, Tohoko, Kitakanto (North Kanto), Minamikanto (South Kanto), Tokyo), Hokurikushinetsu, Tokai, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu.


Candidates can run for both single-member constituency seats and on the PR list. If you lose your constituency seat you can then gain a seat anyway based on your ranking on the PR list.

[Deleted]

New Mainichi poll with good news for the opposition.

mainichi.jp/english/articles/20170927/p2a/00m/0na/020000c

Opinion of Shinzo Abe

Approve 36
Disapprove 42

Do you prefer the ruling party to gain seats or the opposition parties to gain seats?

Ruling party 34
Opposition 49

LDP 29%
HP 18%
DP 8%
KP 5%
JCP 5%
JRP 3%
LP 1%
SDP 0%

I do not have the full poll, but the rest will mostly be undecided. 

[The Bishop]

Sept 27, 2017 10:01:22 GMT @odo said:

SDP 0%

Arf.

Seriously, what happened to them?

[Deleted]

Made a quick overview of the parties (unless they merge..).

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): Broad tent (= factionalized) pro-business "party of power", in reality mostly a clientelistic patronage machine.

Democratic Party (DP): Broad tent centre-leftish & liberal party with strong links to the trade unions (the main donors of their centre-left wing).

Komeito Party (KP): The political arm of the Buddhist layman order Soka Gakkai with a populist appeal to "the common man".

Japanese Communist Party (JCP): Communists de facto turned Social Democrats.

Social Democratic Party (SDP): The paltry remnants of the old Japan Socialist Party (JSP).

Liberal Party (LP): Personalist vehicle for LDP defector Ichiro Ozawa. Regional party with strength in NE Honshu and populist/pro-welfare policies.

Japan Restoration Party (JRP): Personalist vehicle for right winger Toru Hashimoto based in Osaka and with little strength elsewhere.

Hope Party (HP): New "reformist" Conservative party and vehicle of popular Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike. Remains to be seen if it has pull outside Metro Tokyo.

Happiness Realization Party (HRP): The far right political arm of the Happy Science cult.

No Party to Back (NPB): Protest party whose Japanese name Shiji Seito Nashi is often (less literally) translated as "None of the Above".

[Deleted]

DP leader Seiji Maehara has more or less dissolved the party. He will run as an independent with HP backing (as will others from his dominant right wing) and says the party will not exist after the election (implying he and all the other "independents" will then join HP). The right wing has control over the party seal and finances, which will mean the left wing will have to start rebuilding nearly from scratch after the election.  

Looks like a recipe for vote splitting. The results in their strongholds should be very interesting. 


DPJ in 2014

[Deleted]

There had been talk about LP merging into DP, but they will probably also join HP now. Ozawa and Koike are former allies in LDP. 

Some background (even though things are moving so fast its already a bit dated).

Koike’s new party, Kibo no To, vows to alter Japan’s political landscape

[The Bishop]

Sept 27, 2017 16:19:58 GMT @odo said:

which will mean the left wing will have to start rebuilding nearly from scratch after the election

Re my earlier post, maybe they could try to breathe life into the corpse that is the SDP?

[timrollpickering]

Sept 27, 2017 8:22:18 GMT @odo said:

Candidates can run for both single-member constituency seats and on the PR list. If you lose your constituency seat you can then gain a seat anyway based on your ranking on the PR list.

Although constituency seats don't count directly towards the allocation of list seats, they can cause minor complications if a party does so well that it runs out of list candidates.

[Deleted]

Sept 27, 2017 16:52:38 GMT The Bishop said:

Sept 27, 2017 16:19:58 GMT @odo said:

which will mean the left wing will have to start rebuilding nearly from scratch after the election

Re my earlier post, maybe they could try to breathe life into the corpse that is the SDP?

Yes, but I don't know how much that brand and organization is worth at this point. It would probably be better to start over. The trade unions will likely follow the DP left, so they should have access to some funds.  SDP want to abolish of the military and an end to the military alliance with the US, and that is perceived as too radical and an electoral liability. Pacifism seems to be very important for the people left in SDP, so I doubt they will cave on that. They are also anti-nuclear, and the trade unions are pro-nuclear. 

[Deleted]

A new Left DP would likely be a trade union "owned" and controlled Labour party (whatever its name).

[Deleted]

DP's steering committee has decided not to run a PR list and instead let their candidates apply to run as HP affiliated independents. HP will evaluate all candidates individually to secure they support their election platform (= avoid left wingers). The two parties will then formally merge after the election and the DP representatives in the House of Councillors will switch to HP.

Its unclear how the DP left wing will react (start a new party, run as independents or join SDP). 

www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/28/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-dissolves-lower-house-opposition-bands-together/#.Wcz6HK1kMzZ

[Deleted]

Sept 28, 2017 10:59:20 GMT @odo said:

The two parties will then formally merge after the election and the DP representatives in the House of Councillors will switch to HP.

Its ofc virtually guaranteed that many of them won't do that, but I don't know the factional breakdown among the councillors (but there should be a right wing majority). 

[Merseymike]

Japan is as near to a one party state as any other democracy. Curious country - very right wing but more equal in terms of income differentials than anywhere outside Scandinavia.

[thirdchill]

Sept 28, 2017 11:23:54 GMT Merseymike said:

Japan is as near to a one party state as any other democracy. Curious country - very right wing but more equal in terms of income differentials than anywhere outside Scandinavia.

Perhaps less curious when you look at their education system, which on the whole is extremely good across the board. It is a very stressful and high stakes school system when it comes to trying for a university place but in primary school there is less emphasis on external testing.

The school system and general attitudes to education in society have far more of an effect on inequality than the political composition of governments.

[Merseymike]

Sept 28, 2017 11:44:04 GMT thirdchill said:

Sept 28, 2017 11:23:54 GMT Merseymike said:

Japan is as near to a one party state as any other democracy. Curious country - very right wing but more equal in terms of income differentials than anywhere outside Scandinavia.

Perhaps less curious when you look at their education system, which on the whole is extremely good across the board. It is a very stressful and high stakes school system when it comes to trying for a university place but in primary school there is less emphasis on external testing.

The school system and general attitudes to education in society have far more of an effect on inequality than the political composition of governments.

And that in itself is bound up with Japanese cultural traditions. Their particular blend isn't found anywhere else.
Low income inequality is combined with what we would fond to be outrageously retro views on the role of women.

[Deleted]

Koike says she will not run in the election herself (focusing on Tokyo and the 2020 OL etc.), but that “we’re not throwing our hats into the ring just to end up becoming an opposition party. This election is about winning power."

On DPs decision:

"Koike pointedly refused to call the arrangement a “merger.” She said whether incoming DP members will be able to run on a Kibo no To ticket will hinge on their stances on key issues, including the controversial security legislation that significantly expanded the operational scope of the Self-Defense Forces involved in overseas operations.

“I don’t think DP lawmakers who were opposed to the law back in the day would want to join us in the first place,” Koike said. Kibo no To is a self-described conservative party determined to bolster Japan’s security.

“But some of them may be adopting a more realistic position on the legislation now that the situation in North Korea has escalated to the extent it has. … So we will see who will apply to join us first,” she said."

www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/28/national/politics-diplomacy/koike-says-second-place-finish-not-good-enough-snap-vote-plans-wrench-power-ruling-ldp/#.Wc0GOq1kMzY