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Post by afleitch on Sept 18, 2017 20:08:51 GMT
This is a bit of a work in progress. To start, here's what the Act specified.
The plan was to use the existing constituencies which would return 2 members unless the electorate was more than 125% of the electoral quota in which it would return 3 (which at the time of the Act was Dunbartonshire East, Renfrewshire West, East Kilbride, Midlothian and West Lothian). Orkney and Shetland would return 1 member each.
Afterwards, Westminster constituencies would be divided into 2 by the Boundary Commissions to produce Assembly constituencies, less of course the 125% rule applies.
Elections were to be the third Thursday in March every 4 years.
Let's assume there's no 40% rule, or it's overcome. Then an Assembly remains law. Whether or not there is a vote of no confidence in Callaghan's government doesn't really matter; he's only got to October 1979. The Conservatives win; to overturn a body confirmed by referendum would be suicidal (and only 5 of the 16 Tory MP's before 1979 were stridently anti-devolution; the ring leader Teddy Taylor was ousted in 1979 anyway) and so March 1980 is set as the date for the first election. What happens to the Assembly, how it evolved, what power it gains or loses is what's up for discussion.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on Sept 18, 2017 20:23:52 GMT
Elections were to be the third Thursday in March every 4 years. At the time, Maundy Thursday was still considered a dies non for electoral purposes. What would have happened if it had coincided with Scottish Assembly election day?? |
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Post by afleitch on Sept 18, 2017 20:47:49 GMT
The act allowed for some variation in when the election was held. I don't think Maundy Thursday would ever have fallen on that date in 1980, 1984 etc.
Anyway, opinion polls. System 3 was bouncy bouncy and MORI's quarterly poll (which was more accurate) hadn't started.
We can look at the Jan-Feb-March System 3 average which was
CON 26.7
LAB 47.3
LIB 9.3
SNP 13
District Elections took place in April (April System 3 poll in brackets)
CON 24.1 (24)
LAB 45.1 (53)
SNP 15.5 (16)
LIB 6.2 (7)
IND 8.9
Denver and Bochel give a CON-LAB-SNP figure for 1980 in wards where those 3 and only those 3 parties stood
CON 24.1
LAB 52.7
SNP 23.2
So.
Let's give the Liberals 9.3% and structure the rest around that ratio
CON 23.5
LAB 46.7
LIB 9.3
SNP 20.5
To be continued.
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Post by jigger on Sept 18, 2017 22:51:09 GMT
Was there any controversy during the passage of the Scotland Bill about the fact that it was being called an Assembly rather than a Parliament?
Also, does anyone have a link to the proposed Scotland Bill when it was first introduced into the House of Commons? It would be interesting to compare it with the enacted Scotland Act as I recall reading that its provisions were watered down considerably during the passage of the Bill through Parliament.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 18, 2017 23:39:38 GMT
Supporters of devolution often referred to the Assembly proposed in the 1970s as a "Scottish Parliament". It doesn't seem to have been particularly controversial.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 20, 2017 11:10:16 GMT
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 20, 2017 16:20:10 GMT
We can probably also assume that the SNP would have outperformed their Westminster polling for at least the first few elections to the Assembly.
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Post by afleitch on Sept 20, 2017 17:56:16 GMT
We can probably also assume that the SNP would have outperformed their Westminster polling for at least the first few elections to the Assembly. I think so. The SNP vote share upticked in the Euro's in 1979 and they seemed to do better in those sorts of elections than elsewhere. The 1980 locals weren't too bad. It was the Alliance that blunted the SNP until the late 80's. Somewhere in my papers I have some hypothetical assembly polls (and ones in the early 90's) which suggested the SNP doing better. MORI in February 1979 had the SNP outperforming their Westminster share by 2 points, with the Tories down 4 and the Liberals up 1. It's a shame MORI didn't regularly poll until the early 80's instead of System 3 because where they did their polls were better (they got 1979 spot on) For this exercise I've put together a little polling model using Scotland wide results in the 80's and beyond which I'll use |
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Post by afleitch on Sept 20, 2017 18:09:18 GMT
Thanks for the links  I think the intention was that the Commission would incorporate that work into it's own ongoing work which didn't report until 1981 anyway. I've had a go at splitting the agreed constituencies and it actually makes for greater disproportionality than the Westminster seats. Labour's support was so demographically evenly spread it would win 2 out of 2 in it's marginals while the Tories would only win 1 in it's marginals of a similar proportionality. Indeed if you look at 1983, the SNP would struggle to win more than 2 out of a potential 144 seats. Not to jump too far ahead, but I have the Tories eventually scrapping the system and implementing a system similar to what we now have. Firstly it can't have 'Ulsteresque' style Labour dominance in an Assembly in the mid 1980's while trying to implement a proportionate system in Northern Ireland with the Sunningdale Agreement and also while trying to dismantle the Mets which had the same level of disproportionality. The Tories did everything they could to dismantle Labour bastions so it's not surprising they would do the same. It can't get rid of a system that the people voted on, and it's never going to come close to holding power in Scotland but it can change the electoral system. A constituency-AMS list is the sort of fudge that might have been acceptable. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Sept 21, 2017 13:21:39 GMT
I look forward to seeing the results.
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