Icelandic parliamentary election, 2017

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University of Iceland conducted 22-25/10 and based on a 3,900 sample has LG dropping 3 points from the previous week to 20.2% and a 4.3 point difference to IP. LG/SDA/Pirates on 30 seats combined as in the Fréttablaðið poll. The final push from IP is now mainly on tax increases if a "leftist government" is formed.

LG 20.2 (14)
SDA 15.3 (10)
Pirates 8.8 (6)

IP 24.5 (17)
PP 7.9 (5)

Viðreisn 8.3 (5)
BF 1.3

Centre 9.3 (6)
People's Party 4.2

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RÚV has excluded the People's Front of Iceland from the final tv-debate on Friday night due to the fact that they have no support in the polls. The Commies claim this is an undemocratic suppression of dissenting voices. I assume Dawn will not be in it either. Should give more speaking time to the nine parties running a national campagn. It would have been smarter of RÚV simply to eliminate parties not running in all constituencies from both debates, that is a 100% objective criteria.

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Top two over which parties 2016 voters for a party have switched to. The "24% IP to LG vote" from a month ago has completely evaporated and its now less than 3% of IP voters from 2016 who would vote LG. PP lose 40% of its vote to Centre; the Pirates lose the most to LG; BF lose much more to SDA & LG than Viðreisn. BF simply had too leftist an electorate to afford to join a centre-right government.





Share of 2016 voters who would vote for the same party again. BF down to 11%..

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Zenter poll (they made the first poll, but haven't polled the race since). The result is the first column, the 2nd column is the lower end of the band, and the 3rd is the upper end of the band.

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Some stats from the UoI poll.

Share of voters that aren't completely sure they would vote:



PP and the People's Party have the highest share. One more reason to assume the People's Party won't make it. PP normally has one of the most dependable electorates, so interesting that they have the highest share of unsure voters.

Capital area:


"Rural" areas:


The age pattern for LG is interesting. Highest among young people outside the capital region (where no old people vote for them), but slightly below average among young voters in the capital area. Very characteristic age profile for the Pirates and to a lesser degree Centre and the People's Party.

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IP attack add (on taxes, EU, constitution) - featuring Nicolas Maduro..

SDA - EU
LG - tax hikes
Pirates - revolution

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Gallup has LG collapsing to 17.3 with eight points up to IP, SDA on 15.5 and the combined left on 41.8.

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Its conducted 23-27/10. The net sample is from Gallup's panel "Attitude Group", but the sample in the telephone survey is a random sample from the National Register. The total sample size was 3,848 with a participation rate of 55.0% (a bit low). LG dropped a whooping six points from last week and IP gained 2.7. Lets see if the final Gallup poll gets closest again. 

The final debate starts 19.45 and is only for parties running in all constituencies (Dawn are "shocked" they aren't invited... ). Last chance for the left to stop the bleeding and possibly regain a few vital points.

The four last polls from the regular pollsters (Zenter not included).

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As expected the last MMR poll has LG even lower, but it also has IP and SDA lower and the three "old" parties high (Centre, PP, People's Party). Its conducted yesterday with only 980 answers from their panel.

IP 21.3
PP 11.7

LG 16.6
SDA 12.5
Pirates 11.0

Centre 11.4
People's Party 4.4

Viðreisn 8.0
BF 2.2

Others 0.9

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The Pirates are - finally - using Helgi Hrafn. Viðreisn Þorgerður Katrín G., and BF have replaced Óttarr Proppé with Björt Ólafsdóttir.

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If anyone wants to check body language etc. the debate is here: www.ruv.is/frett/sidustu-leidtogaumraedurnar-fyrir-kosningar

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The debate is over. My Icelandic isn't good enough to decide who won, but I think at least Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir did well, and I could see Viðreisn gaining a bit on this.

Katrín was Mrs. Broad Cooperation, which I am not sure was the right tactic, Logi Már was on the attack (incl. on Viðreisn) and accused Bjarni Ben and Þorgerður Katrín of "sounding like Social Democrats before the last election, only to turn into sheep butcherers once in power and now playing social workers again."

Helgi Hrafn was sober and sensible as usual, but he didn't have a great night, and the Pirates needed him to have one. Inga Sæland finished off with bursting into tears and declaring her dream was an Iceland where everyone "could proudly walk in our beautiful land with their head held high" before citing stats about the number of children living in poverty and homeless people living in tents and caravans etc. Sigurdir Ingi gave a sincere impression and I think the people he appeals to would probably think he did well. SDG was a bit anonymous - he was standing next to Björt Ólafsdóttir, who attacked him relentlessly, and I think he had a hard time handling her. Given BF are unlikely to get reelected she didn't really have anything to lose, and it seemed she relished giving him a hard time.

Bjarni Ben was his usual calm and collected self, and apart from once when he asked Logi Már to keep quiet he kept his temper under control.

There was a funny moment when one of he moderators asked whether the others would cooperate with Katrín and everyone raised their hand, some more reluctantly than others (SDG last), before Bjarni Ben made a grimasse, spread his hands and declared that it was an inappropriate question and that the voters needed to be asked first.

They laugh a lot during Icelandic tv-debates, even if it was quite tense at times. Hugs and handshakes all around afterwards, incl. the moderators. A bit weird for me as a Dane.

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Voters can prioritize as many names on the list of their chosen party as they bother and can also strike out one name for the party they vote on - which counts as a negative vote. Its pretty rare, but last time a quarter of PP voters in the NE crossed out SDGs name.

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Local celebrities on the lists:

SDA leads that competition by miles this time and many of their artists are in electable positions. The BF lists are nearly empty of big names - apart from party leader Óttarr Proppé and his band mates. Changing of the guard in the creative class.

IP

Reykjavík South:
13. Rúrik Gíslason, midfielder FC Nürnberg and national team.

SW:
11. Davíð Þór Viðarsson, midfielder FH and national team.


LG

Reykjavík South:
14. Kött Grá Pje (Atli Sigþórsson), rapper and author.
16. Úlfar Þormóðsson, author

Reykjavík North:
9. Ragnar Kjartansson, performance artist
19. Sigríður Thorlacius, artist

SW:
13. Kristín Helga Gunnarsdóttir, author and chairman of the author's association Rithöfundasamband Íslands
24. Grímur Hákonarson, movie director

South:
9. Gunnar Þórðarson, musician (Trúbrot, Rió Trió)

NE:
6. Berglind Häsler, musician (Prins Póló, Skakkamanage)


SDA

Reykjavík North:
1. Helga Vala Helgadóttir, actor (and lawyer)
8. Hallgrímur Helgason, author
11. Edda Björgvinsdóttir, actor
12. Biggi veira (Birgit Þórarinsson), musician (GusGus), DJ
17. Áshildur Haraldsdóttir, flutenist
18. Þorkell Heiðarsson, musician (and biologist)
20. Dr. Gunni (Gunnar Lárus Hjálmarsson), musician, music journalist
22. Dagur B. Eggertsson, Mayor of Reykjavík

Reykjavík South:
9. Margrét M. Norðdahl, painter
22. Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir, ex-PM

SW:
1. Guð­mundur Andri Thors­son, author and columnist
2. Margrét Tryggvadóttir, childens author (and ex-MP)
7. author and actor Gunnar Helgason
10. actor and comedian Hjálmar Hjálmarsson


Pirates

Reykjavík North:
20. Elísabet Jökulsdóttir, author, journalist, ex-presidential candidate (and crazy lady)

BF

Reykjavík North:
1. Óttarr Proppé, singer (Ham etc.)
20. Sigurður Björn Blöndal, musician (Ham), city councillor

Reykjavík South:
8. Ilmur Kristjánsdóttir, actor, city councillor

SW:
24. Sigurjón Kjartansson, musician (Ham)


Viðreisn

Reykjavik North:
8. Birna Hafstein, actor

Reykjavík South:
20. Þorsteinn Pálsson, ex-PM and IP leader

SW:
12. Ólöf Kolbrún Harðardóttir, opera singer
15. Kristín Pétursdóttir, entrepreneur


Centre:

Reykjavík North:
7. Jón Hjaltalín Magnússon, handball player and ex-chairman of the national handball association Handknattleikssamband Íslands

Reykjavík South:
14. Sigurður Þ. Ragnarsson, tv-weatherman ("Siggi stormur")


People's Party:

Reykjavík North:
7. Karl Berndsen, fashion expert

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The polling stations are open from 9-22 in most of the country, 10-18 in the smaller rural polling stations and in a few remote places they close as soon as everyone has either voted or confirmed they aren't going to (the social pressure to vote early so the ballots can be send to the counting center can be quite high). Final result around midnight, unless some ballots are delayed by bad weather. Icelandic time is GMT.

Seat count from the last Gallup poll as a baseline of sorts (but no guarantee Gallup gets closest this time, and the final debate might have moved some votes).

IP 17
PP 6

Combined centre-left: 29 

LG 12
SDA 11
Pirates 6

Centre 6
Viðreisn 5

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Nice weather in all of country, so no delay of the count.

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There is normally a reasonable safe prognosis at 11 pm, but it might be less certain this year as so many parties will be close and seats could flip several times. There is a record high number of early votes, which will be counted last, and these are likely to be a bit more favorable for the left as many of them were cast before the public mood changed.

The count of the regular ballots will finish between 3:00 and 4:00 in the night, possibly c. 4:30 in NW due to the Westfiords, but because of the postal votes and early votes from other constituencies the final result will not be in until c. 6:00 in the morning.

Swedish Iceland correspondent Anders Svensson has this prognosis:

IP 27
PP 8
Viðreisn 8

Centre 11
People's Party 4
BF 2

LG 18
SDA 14
Pirates 8

Its based on weighed polls + IP having the most loyal voters and the Pirates the least reliable.

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Turnout so far higher than in 2016 in the capital area and South (16-18% up), 5% down in NW. But it might just be due to the fine weather. No reports from NE.

[tamar]

Oct 28, 2017 14:00:55 GMT @odo said:

Turnout so far higher than in 2016 in the capital area and South (16-18% up), 5% down in NW. But it might just be due to the fine weather. No reports from NE.

Having taken a glance at the regional breakdowns you posted earlier, I assume that's good for the left and PP?

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Oct 28, 2017 14:27:45 GMT tamar said:

Oct 28, 2017 14:00:55 GMT @odo said:

Turnout so far higher than in 2016 in the capital area and South (16-18% up), 5% down in NW. But it might just be due to the fine weather. No reports from NE.

Having taken a glance at the regional breakdowns you posted earlier, I assume that's good for the left and PP?

Higher turnout would on average benefit the combined left everywhere. PP had an unusually high share of doubters, so presumably also good for them. But its too early to say whether the final turnout will be higher than last time.