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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 14, 2017 21:37:29 GMT
Westexe turnout is 18.83%.
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 14, 2017 21:39:55 GMT
I notice that on the Andrew's Previews summary, Andrew Teale has the "no description" candidate down as Independent - I have re=checked the council website and the description box is definitely left blank. Am I missing something and does it matter? Some people I think will put ND votes and Ind votes in different places? Some people will, but I won't. As far as I'm concerned candidates without a description count as independents. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 14, 2017 21:43:47 GMT
Are all 3 by-elections counting tonight?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 14, 2017 22:03:40 GMT
Haven't had confirmation from Lyme Regis but I expect so.
Meanwhile Trafford, Bucklow St Martins is a Labour win/regain from Conservative.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 14, 2017 22:15:23 GMT
Westexe (Mid Devon) result:
CON: 36.4% (+11.2)
IND: 23.4% (+7.6)
LAB: 21.4% (+11.5)
LDEM: 18.8% (+18.8)
No UKIP, Grn and oth Inds as prev.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Sept 14, 2017 22:20:56 GMT
Mid Devon Council, Westexe WardUKIP sitting as Ind resignedCandidates:Anthony James BUSH (Con)Gerald LUXTON (Ind) Gerald Luxton is a very well-known Town Councillor for part of this ward and was also for many years an MDDC Councillor for this three-member District Council ward. Because of the advantage gained by political parties in 2015 due to the General Election turnout, he unexpectedly lost by just 11 votes to Jonathan Smith, who stood as UKIP, who later went Independent and whose resignation caused this by-election. I'd be amazed not to see Gerald Luxton back on MDDC after this by-election.Well so much for that! |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 14, 2017 22:29:51 GMT
Lyme Regis and Charmouth, Independent gain.
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Post by Ben Walker on Sept 14, 2017 22:38:41 GMT
Vote figs for...
Bucklow-St Martins
Lab: 1,050
Con: 456
UKIP: 65
Grn: 33
LDem: 18
Westexe
Con: 279
Ind: 179
Lab: 164
LDem: 144
Lyme Regis & Charmouth
Ind: 622
Con: 396
Lab: 171
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Sept 14, 2017 23:24:09 GMT
Vote figs for... Bucklow-St Martins Lab: 1,050 Con: 456 UKIP: 65 Grn: 33 LDem: 18 Lyme Regis & Charmouth Ind: 622 Con: 396 Lab: 171 Bucklow St Martins, Trafford: Lab 64.7% (+26.3) Con 28.1% (+11.0) UKIP 4.0% (-9.3) Grn 2.0% (-2.5) LD 1.1% (-1.8) Lyme Regis and Charmouth, West Dorset: Ind 52.3% Con 33.3% (-14.0) Lab 14.4% |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2017 23:30:28 GMT
I notice that on the Andrew's Previews summary, Andrew Teale has the "no description" candidate down as Independent - I have re=checked the council website and the description box is definitely left blank. Am I missing something and does it matter? Some people I think will put ND votes and Ind votes in different places? Some people will, but I won't. As far as I'm concerned candidates without a description count as independents. Some might insist she is an independent but not an Independent! Whatever she was she will now be Councillor, and we can see how she styles herself then! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 15, 2017 10:40:17 GMT
The changes in Bucklow from last year illustrate how an Independent candidate polled very decently then - anybody know what that was about?
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 15, 2017 11:39:39 GMT
Gerald Luxton is a very well-known Town Councillor for part of this ward and was also for many years an MDDC Councillor for this three-member District Council ward. Because of the advantage gained by political parties in 2015 due to the General Election turnout, he unexpectedly lost by just 11 votes to Jonathan Smith, who stood as UKIP, who later went Independent and whose resignation caused this by-election. I'd be amazed not to see Gerald Luxton back on MDDC after this by-election.Well so much for that! Yes I suspect all the competitors in the prediction thread were influenced by casualobserver's confident assertion here -we all had it down as an Indy win. I had however noticed that Luxtonhad never polled that well- when there were two Indys in harness together, his vote was always the lower one, so maybe that said something about him and his campaigning style,and maybe we should have treated casualobserver as just that, rather than local expert  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 15, 2017 12:24:41 GMT
Vote figs for... Bucklow-St Martins Lab: 1,050 Con: 456 UKIP: 65 Grn: 33 LDem: 18The situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dems' advantage. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 15, 2017 12:49:23 GMT
Vote figs for... Bucklow-St Martins Lab: 1,050 Con: 456 UKIP: 65 Grn: 33 LDem: 18The situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dems' advantage. I don't think we should make too much of that - indeed I had predicted the LibDems on 1% here and that's one of the few predictions I got spot on! If you look back at past results, we have failed to field a candidate here as often as not, and the last three occasions we did, they got less than 100 votes each time There is one occasion in the past history when we got over 700 votes (must have been a combination of good year and good candidate ) but that still left us well adrift of the winner. You could always get somewhere here (in all seats from the safest Labour like this, to the safest Tory), if you have good candidates prepared to be there for the long slog. Otherwise you put a paper candidate to collect a minimal vote, anything else is a waste of resources. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 15, 2017 16:05:24 GMT
The situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dems' advantage. I don't think we should make too much of that - indeed I had predicted the LibDems on 1% here and that's one of the few predictions I got spot on! If you look back at past results, we have failed to field a candidate here as often as not, and the last three occasions we did, they got less than 100 votes each time There is one occasion in the past history when we got over 700 votes (must have been a combination of good year and good candidate ) but that still left us well adrift of the winner. You could always get somewhere here (in all seats from the safest Labour like this, to the safest Tory), if you have good candidates prepared to be there for the long slog. Otherwise you put a paper candidate to collect a minimal vote, anything else is a waste of resources. Agree with all of that. It was an attempt at wry humour. |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 19, 2017 8:20:11 GMT
Mid Devon, Westexe - Conservative gain from UKIP sitting as Independent| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 279 | 36.4% | +6.6% | +2.9% | +11.9% | +10.5% | Independent * | 179 | 23.4% | +4.7% | +9.5% | -14.2% | -11.1% | Labour | 164 | 21.4% | +9.6% | +8.4% | +10.6% | +10.7% | Liberal Democrat | 144 | 18.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +7.8% | +7.2% | UKIP |
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| -28.1% | -26.4% | -16.1% | -17.0% | Green |
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| -11.6% | -13.1% |
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| Total | 766 |
| 22% | 25% | 32% | 34% |
* Independent candidate was top of three in 2015 and second of two in 2011 Swing from 2015 not meaningful but Independent to Conservative ~ 13% / 11% since 2011 Council now 29 Conservative, 6 Independent, 5 Liberal Democrat, Liberal, 1 UKIP Trafford, Bucklow St Martins - Labour hold although former Councillor was sitting as Conservative | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 1,050 | 64.7% | +26.3% | +1.8% | +11.7% | -2.3% | Conservative | 456 | 28.1% | +11.1% | +0.2% | -3.2% | +6.9% | UKIP | 65 | 4.0% | -9.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 33 | 2.0% | -2.5% | -7.2% | -10.7% | -4.6% | Liberal Democrat | 18 | 1.1% | -1.8% | from nowhere | -1.8% | -3.9% | Independent |
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| -23.8% |
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| Total votes | 1,622 |
| 75% | 42% | 82% | 88% |
Swing since 2015 not meaningful, Conservative to Labour ¾% since 2015 and 7½% since 2014 but Labour to Conservative 2¼% since 2012
Council now 33 Conservative, 26 Labour, 3 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
West Dorset, Lyme Regis & Charmouth - No Description gain from Conservative
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | No Description | 622 | 52.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 396 | 33.3% | -14.0% | -16.2% | Labour | 171 | 14.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat |
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| -26.9% | -23.4% | Green |
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| -19.5% | -20.5% | Other No Description |
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| -6.3% | -6.6% | Total votes | 1,189 |
| 38% | 40% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 29 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent / No Description
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 20, 2017 19:43:04 GMT
A very long time ago when the world was young (or at least I was) I was agent for various Liberal candidates at elections in Partington (which was a big Manchester overspill estate), without significant success! I think I got one parish council candidate elected once...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 21, 2017 10:28:10 GMT
A very long time ago when the world was young (or at least I was) I was agent for various Liberal candidates at elections in Partington (which was a big Manchester overspill estate), without significant success! I think I got one parish council candidate elected once... Apparently there is still a parish council in Partington (which isn't all that common in the Mets) Anybody know its present make up? |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
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Post by Crimson King on Sept 21, 2017 10:59:22 GMT
A very long time ago when the world was young (or at least I was) I was agent for various Liberal candidates at elections in Partington (which was a big Manchester overspill estate), without significant success! I think I got one parish council candidate elected once... Apparently there is still a parish council in Partington (which isn't all that common in the Mets) Anybody know its present make up? can't speak for other areas, but a significant chunk of Bradford Met is parished (but then, contrary to many assumptions, we are a pretty rural sort of Met |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 22, 2017 10:59:07 GMT
And there are three areas in Coventry which are parished, and I know there are some in Solihull (though Solihull is probably the most rural of the Mets by quite a long way). and Birmingham has Sutton Coldfield.
Which just goes to show that parished areas in the Mets aren't as rare as is generally thought.
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