Prediction Competition - September 2017

[middleenglander]

It looks like 32 by-elections during the month:
* 14 on the 7th September
* 3 on the 14th
* 3 on the 21st and
* 12 on the 28th

21 of the by-elections are for District Councils
- 15 with all out elections in 2015, 1 with all out elections in 2016, 4 with "annual" elections last contested in 2016 and 1 last contested in 2015
3 are in Unitary Authorities, one last contested in each of 2015, 2016 and 2017
3 are for Scottish Authorities last contested in May
2 are for County Councils last contested in May
2 are for Metropolitan Boroughs last contested in 2016 and
1 for a London Borough last contested in 2014

Conservatives are defending 17 seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor, 11 a resignation and 1 a disqualification for non-attendance
Labour defend 11 seats, 2 following a death and 9 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats, both following a resignation
UKIP and Independent defend 1 seat each following a resignation

Conservatives are contesting all 32 seats, Labour 30, Liberal Democrats 26, Greens 17, UKIP 13, SNP 3 with 9 Independents contesting 7 seats
- there are 2 Chase Independents and 2 Libertarians along with 1 each BNP, Demos Direct Initiative, Chesterfield Independent, Unionist, Yorkshire and No Description, a total of 140 candidates for the 32 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the by-election.

However I am busy working on our daughter's new house then having a holiday so not sure how much time I can devote this month. The Deputy Returning Officer may have to officiate.

[yellowperil]

Thank you,Middleenglander, for coming up with the goods just in time! We all do appreciate your efforts, and sometimes real life does have to take over, doesn't it?

[lancastrian]

Babergh: Lab 46 Con 34 LD 20
Cannock Hednesford Green Heath: Lab 45 Con 37 Green 10 UKIP 5 Chase Ind 3
Cannock Hednesford South: Lab 36 Con 34 Green 24 UKIP 6
Colchester: Lab 33 Con 28 LD 26 Ind 6 UKIP 4 Green 3
Croydon: Lab 69 Con 16 LD 8 Green 5 UKIP 2
East Cambs: LD 40 Con 35 Lab 25
Glasgow: Lab 44 SNP 33 Con 10 Green 7 LD 4 Lib 2
Herefordshire: Ind (Jinman) 29 Ind (Baker) 28 Con 18 Lab 15 Green 10
Lancaster: Lab 60 Con 30 LD 10
Lewes: LD 39 Con 30 Lab 17 Green 10 UKIP 4
N Lanarks: Lab 36 SNP 27 Ind 17 Con 8 Unionist 6 Green 4 UKIP 2
Peterborough: Con 45 Lab 30 UKIP 10 LD 10 Green 5
Staffs: Lab 32 Con 30 Green 27 LD 5 UKIP 4 Chase Ind 2
Suffolk: Lab 62 Con 25 LD 8 Green 5

[yellowperil]

Ah well, I'm going to take the plunge, as posting 14 sets of forecasts may take some time. I have a horrid feeling this has the potential to rack up a 4-figure score of faults before we are out of week 1.

Cannock Chase, Hednesford Green Heath: Lab 44, Con 40, UKIP 6, Green 6, Ind 4
Cannock Chase,Hednesford South:Green 41,Con 38, Lab 18, UKIP 3
Babergh, Sudbury South: Lab 46, Con 40, LD 14
Colchester, Shrub End: LD 38, Con 35,Lab 15,Green 6, UKIP 3,Ind 3
Croydon. South Norwood:Lab 50, Con 30, LD 10, Green 8, UKIP 2
East Cambs, Ely South: Con 48,Lab 30, LD 22
Lewes, Ouse Valley & Ringmer: LD 42, Con 40, Lab 10, Green 6. UKIP 2
Lancaster, Skerton: Lab 60, Con 34, LD 6
Herefordshire, Golden Valley South: Con 50,Green 18,Ind Jinman 14, Ind Baker 12, Lab 6
Peterborough, Eye, Thorney, & Newborough: Con 65,Lab 26, Green 5, LD 2, UKIP 2
Staffs, Hednesford: Lab 41, Con 39, Green 10, Ind 6, LD 2, UKIP 2
Suffolk, St Johns: Con 43, Lab 38, LD 12, Green 7
Glasgow, Lab 37,SNP 35, Con 20, LD 4, Green 2 Libertarian 2
North Lanarkshire, Fortissat: Lab 42, SNP 37, Con 11, Unionist 3, Ind 3, Green 2, UKIP 2

[greenhert]

My forecasts for this week:

Babergh DC, Sudbury South: Labour 45, Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 13.
Cannock Chase BC, Hednesford Green Heath: Labour 42, Conservative 40, UKIP 8, Green 5, Independent 5.
Cannock Chase BC, Hednesford South: Green 40, Conservative 36, Labour 20, UKIP 4.
Colchester BC, Shrub End: Liberal Democrats 37, Conservative 35, Labour 17, Green 5, Independent 3, UKIP 3.
Croydon LBC, South Norwood: Labour 55, Conservative 29, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 5, UKIP 3.
East Cambridgeshire DC, Ely South: Conservative 50, Labour 29, Liberal Democrats 21.
Glasgow UA, Cardonald (1st preferences): Labour 36, SNP 35, Conservative 21, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 3, Libertarian 1.
Herefordshire UA, Golden Valley: Independent (Jinman) 33, Conservative 28, Independent (Baker) 22, Green 10, Labour 7.
Lancaster BC, Skerton West: Labour 57, Conservative 34, Liberal Democrats 9.
Lewes DC, Ouse Valley & Ringmer: Green 32, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrats 25, Labour 9, UKIP 4.
North Lanarkshire UA, Fortissat: Labour 37, SNP 32, Independent 10, Conservative 10, Green 5, Unionist 4, UKIP 2.
Peterborough UA, Eye, Thorney & Newborough: Conservative 49, Labour 30, Liberal Democrats 10, UKIP 6, Green 5.
Staffordshire CC, Hednesford & Rawnsley: Green 35, Conservative 25, Labour 18, Chase Independent 13, UKIP 5, Liberal Democrats 4.
Suffolk CC, St Johns: Labour 59, Conservative 30, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 5.

[Robert Waller]

Babergh: Lab 43 Con 41 LD 16
Cannock Hednesford Green Heath: Lab 48 Con 35 Green 10 UKIP 4 Chase Ind 3
Cannock Hednesford South: Lab 39 Con 30 Green 27 UKIP 4
Colchester: Lab 25 Con 25 LD 38 Ind 4 UKIP 4 Green 4
Croydon: Lab 64 Con 17 LD 7 Green 9 UKIP 3
East Cambs: LD 38 Con 37 Lab 25
Glasgow: Lab 42 SNP 38 Con 12 Green 3 LD 3 Lib 2
Herefordshire: Ind (Jinman) 35 Ind (Baker) 10 Con 40 Lab 10 Green 5
Lancaster: Lab 58 Con 29 LD 13
Lewes: LD 36 Con 33 Lab 11 Green 16 UKIP 4
N Lanarks: Lab 39 SNP 28 Ind 7 Con 16 Unionist 7 Green 2 UKIP 1
Peterborough: Con 49 Lab 25 UKIP 6 LD 15 Green 5
Staffs: Lab 36 Con 32 Green 17 LD 8 UKIP 4 Chase Ind 3
Suffolk: Lab 59 Con 29 LD 7 Green 5

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BABERGH Sudbury South: Lab 45, C 42, L Dem 13
CANNOCK CHASE Hednesford Green Heath: C 41, Lab 33, TCIP 18, UKIP 5, GP 3
CANNOCK CHASE Hednesford South: Lab 43, C 26, GP 24, UKIP 7
COLCHESTER Shrub End: Lab 38, C 36, L Dem 15, Ind 4, UKIP 4, GP 3
CROYDON South Norwood: Lab 63, C 20, GP 9, L Dem 5, UKIP 3
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE Ely South: C 52, Lab 28, L Dem 20
GLASGOW Cardonald: Lab 45, SNP 40, C 9, SGP 3, L Dem 2, SLP 1
HEREFORDSHIRE Golden Valley South: Ind Jinman 40, C 30, GP 15, Lab 10, Ind Baker 5
LANCASTER Skerton West: Lab 60, C 30, L Dem 10
LEWES Ouse Valley and Ringmer: L Dem 39, C 36, Lab 15, GP 6, UKIP 4
NORTH LANARKSHIRE Fortissat: SNP 37, Lab 32, C 12, Unionist 7, Ind 6, SGP 4, UKIP 2
PETERBOROUGH Eye, Thorney and Newborough: C 50, Lab 25, UKIP 10, L Dem 8, GP 7
STAFFORDSHIRE Hednesford and Rawnsley: C 37, Lab 29, GP 20, UKIP 6, L Dem 4, TCIP 4
SUFFOLK St John's: Lab 58, C 33, L Dem 5, GP 4

[Lifeless]

I'm not gonna be late this time, but I have 14 by-elections to get wrong!

Babergh DC Sudbury South Ward - Con 43%; Lab 31%; LD 26%

Cannock Chase DC Hednesford Green Heath Ward -  Con 51%; Lab 37%; Ind 5%; UKIP 4%; Green 3%

Cannock Chase DC Hednesford South Ward - Green 39%; Lab 37%; Con 20%; UKIP 4%
(The previous two results being so different makes this.. difficult)

Colchester BC Shrub End Ward - Con 34%; LD 33%; Lab 26%; Ind 3%; Green 2%; UKIP 2%

Croydon LB South Norwood Ward - Lab 52%; Con 30%; LD 8%;Green 8%; UKIP 2%

East Cambridgeshire DC Ely South Ward - Con 49%; Lab 30%; LD 21%

Glasgow City UA Ward 4-Cardonald - Lab 50%; SNP 34%; Con 9%; Green 3%; LD 3%; Libertarian 1%

Herefordshire UA Golden Valley South Ward - Ind (Jinman) 37%;  Con 30%; Ind (Baker) 15%; Lab 12%; Green 6%

Lancaster BC Skerton West Ward - Lab 56%; Con 28%; LD 16%

Lewes DC Ouse Valley & Ringmer Ward - LD 37%; Con 32%; Lab 16%; Green 12%; UKIP 3%

North Lanarkshire UA Ward 13- Fortissat - Lab 41%; SNP 29%; Con 17%; Ind 7%; Unionist 3%; Green 2%; UKIP 1%

Peterborough UA Eye,Thorney & Newborough Ward - Con 49%; Lab 24%; LD 20%; Green 4%; UKIP 3%

Staffordshire CC Hednesford & Rawnsley Division - Lab 35%; Con 33%; Green 16%; LD 10%; UKIP 3%; Ind (The Chase) 3%

Suffolk CC St Johns Division Lab 57%; Con 29%; LD 9%; Green 5%

[Dalek]

Glasgow Cardonald...SNP Gain from Labour...North Lanarkshire Fort' Lab Gain from Conservative. The SNP were ahead in the Glasgow ward and Labour were ahead in the North Lanarkshire ward in May. Remember guys that Labour had recovered a bit in Glasgow and Lanarkshire at the May local elections and not at the June General Election. Most of the Scottish subsamples of the UK polls since the general election show the SNP ahead and Scottish Labour appears to be again in a damaging leadership contest.

[hempie]

Babergh, Sudbury South: Lab 43, Con 41, LD 16
Cannock Chase, Hednesford Green Heath: Lab 48, Con 38, UKIP 6, Green 4, Ind 4
Cannock Chase, Hednesford South: Green 36, Con 34, Lab 25, UKIP 5
Colchester, Shrub End: LD 38, Con 34, Lab 19, Green 3, Ind 3, UKIP 3
Croydon, South Norwood: Lab 59, Con 23, LD 10, Green 5, UKIP 3
East Cambridgeshire, Ely South: LD 39, Con 36, Lab 25
Glasgow, Cardonald: Lab 36, SNP 34, Con 20, LD 5, Green 4, Libertarian 1.
Herefordshire, Golden Valley: Ind (Jinman) 32, Con 30, Ind (Baker) 20, Green 10, Lab 8
Lancaster, Skerton West: Lab 59, Con 31, LD 10
Lewes, Ouse Valley & Ringmer: Con 34, Green 28, LD 27, Lab 8, UKIP 3
North Lanarkshire, Fortissat: Lab 40, SNP 31, Ind 10, Con 10, Green 4, Unionist 3, UKIP 2
Peterborough, Eye, Thorney & Newborough: Con 52, Lab 32, LD 8, UKIP 5, Green 3
Staffordshire, Hednesford & Rawnsley: Green 32, Con 30, Lab 20, Chase Independent 11, UKIP 4, LD 3
Suffolk, St Johns: Lab 60, Con 29, LD 7, Green 4

[The Bishop]

Sept 7, 2017 0:44:43 GMT Dalek said:

Glasgow Cardonald...SNP Gain from Labour...North Lanarkshire Fort' Lab Gain from Conservative. The SNP were ahead in the Glasgow ward and Labour were ahead in the North Lanarkshire ward in May. Remember guys that Labour had recovered a bit in Glasgow and Lanarkshire at the May local elections and not at the June General Election. Most of the Scottish subsamples of the UK polls since the general election show the SNP ahead and Scottish Labour appears to be again in a damaging leadership contest.

That last point in particular is not at all partisan, oh no

Why are leadership contests automatically presumed to be "damaging" by some?

[yellowperil]

Sept 7, 2017 9:23:22 GMT The Bishop said:

Sept 7, 2017 0:44:43 GMT Dalek said:

Glasgow Cardonald...SNP Gain from Labour...North Lanarkshire Fort' Lab Gain from Conservative. The SNP were ahead in the Glasgow ward and Labour were ahead in the North Lanarkshire ward in May. Remember guys that Labour had recovered a bit in Glasgow and Lanarkshire at the May local elections and not at the June General Election. Most of the Scottish subsamples of the UK polls since the general election show the SNP ahead and Scottish Labour appears to be again in a damaging leadership contest.

That last point in particular is not at all partisan, oh no

Why are leadership contests automatically presumed to be "damaging" by some?

exterminate, exterminate...

seriously, though, it is generally held that voters like certainty, so  any leadership contest creates an element of doubt. On the other hand a leadership contest can increase the profile of leadership contenders and if they come over well may help their party's cause. Whether that is the case in this instance might be open to honest doubt.

[Dalek]

The Scottish Labour leadership contest has been reported in the Scottish press as becoming a bit personal. It is reported that supporters of one candidate have urged members against supporting another candidate because he is English.

Some leadership give positive exposure to a range of good potential leaders but others cause division.

[Dalek]

What's interesting about Glasgow's Cardonald By Election is that the SNP had the largest share of the vote but Labour held the council seat. May 2017: SNP 43% Lab 38% and Con 12%

If the SNP lose marginally they will argue this is a Labour Hold and if Labour lose marginally they will say that the SNP had the largest share of the vote. The difference will be if one party wins with a clear lead.

[Dalek]

The other reason why the Scottish leadership contest could be brushing is because it is Blairite vs Corbynist. The incumbent Blairite general election strategy was to direct all fire at the SNP but the Corbynists argue that there was a lack of attack on the Scottish Tories who won 12 seats - a number of which had been safe Labour seats before 2015.

[middleenglander]

Just the 7 entries for the first week of September.

Babergh, Sudbury South: 6 Labour gain from Conservative majority with Lifeless Conservative hold
Cannock Chase, Hednesford Green Heath: 5 Labour gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd and Lifeless Conservative hold
Cannock Chase, Hednesford South: 4 Green gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd, Lancastrian & Robert Waller Labour gain
Colchester, Shrub End: 4 Liberal Democrat hold, David Boothroyd & Lancastrian Labour gain, Lifeless Conservative gain
Croydon, South Norwood: 100% Labour hold
East Cambridgeshire, Ely South: 4 Conservative hold, hempie, Lancastrian, Robert Waller Liberal Democrat gain
Glasgow Cardonald: 100% Labour ahead on first preferences
Herefordshire, Golden Valley South: 5 Independent Jinman gain from Conservative, Robert Waller and Yellow Peril Conservative hold
Lancaster, Skerton West: 100% Labour hold
Lewes, Ouse Valley & Ringmer: 5 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, hempie Conservative hold, greenrobinhood Green gain
North Lanarkshire, Fortissat: 6 Labour ahead on first preferences, David Boothroyd SNP ashead
Peterborough, Eye, Thornley & Newborough: 100% Conservative hold
Staffordshire, Hednesford & Rawnsley: 4 Labour gain from Conservative, greenrobinhood & hempie Green gain, David Boothroyd Conservative hold
Suffolk, St Johns: 6 Labour hold, Yellow Peril Conservative gain

[Lifeless]

Quite a lot of disagreement with some seats tonight, the fact that I got mentioned 3 times makes me question my choices even more than before haha.

[yellowperil]

I was going through a domestic crisis when I should have been concentrating on these postings so I'm going to put my hand up now and say I think a number of mine would have been different had I been able to complete the research efore posting rather than after,and in the one case I simply posted completely the wrong figures (Suffolk CC if that isn't immediately obvious). So I'm expecting a disaster and just hope the score is better than the 1400 for not submitting anything. Of course,in the unlikely event that I have got these right, I would have to do something similar another time.

[Robert Waller]

I hope Mark Senior is OK.
He has been a participant in this competition for as long as I can remember.

[Robert Waller]

Sept 7, 2017 20:26:58 GMT yellowperil said:

I was going through a domestic crisis when I should have been concentrating on these postings so I'm going to put my hand up now and say I think a number of mine would have been different had I been able to complete the research efore posting rather than after,and in the one case I simply posted completely the wrong figures (Suffolk CC if that isn't immediately obvious). So I'm expecting a disaster and just hope the score is better than the 1400 for not submitting anything. Of course,in the unlikely event that I have got these right, I would have to do something similar another time.

Well, I believe you have 'won' the first result, in Lancaster ... so far so good!