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Post by yellowperil on Sept 22, 2017 6:54:50 GMT
So,all to play for on that final week (or at least for the top 4 who remain closely bunched). At least I can hope to get back to respectability after a horrendous start to the month. But the loss of Mark puts it all into perspective I suppose.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2017 9:53:11 GMT
Yesterday's results would certainly have given him a smile.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 27, 2017 19:29:06 GMT
Very unlikely I will enter this week as my Mac has refused to start since installing OS 10.13.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2017 19:50:25 GMT
Kingstone - Lab 50, Con 10, LD 5, Grn 25, Ind 10 Thetford Priory - Con 42 Lab 48 UKIP 10 Trimdon & Thornley - Con 32, Lab 50, LD 4, Grn 10, Ind 4 Stretton - Con 40, Lab 45, LD 5, Ind 5, UKIP 5 Toddbrook - Con 35, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 15, UKIP 5 Washburn - Con 33, Lab 43, Grn 17, Ind 7 Tain & Easter Ross - Con 10 , Lab 35, Ind 5, Ind 3, Ind 5, SNP 42 Halton-with-Aughton - Con 36, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 19 Eastfield - Con 43, Lab 48, LD 8 Nene Valley - Con 42, Lab 38 LD 4, Grn 16 Chedburgh - Con 48, Lab 46, LD 6 Hundon - Con 48, LD 52
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 27, 2017 21:03:15 GMT
Kingstone - Lab 50, Con 10, LD 5, Grn 25, Ind 10 Thetford Priory - Con 42 Lab 48 UKIP 10 Trimdon & Thornley - Con 32, Lab 50, LD 4, Grn 10, Ind 4 Stretton - Con 40, Lab 45, LD 5, Ind 5, UKIP 5 Toddbrook - Con 35, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 15, UKIP 5 Washburn - Con 33, Lab 43, Grn 17, Ind 7 Tain & Easter Ross - Con 10 , Lab 35, Ind 5, Ind 3, Ind 5, SNP 42 Halton-with-Aughton - Con 36, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 19 Eastfield - Con 43, Lab 48, LD 8 Nene Valley - Con 42, Lab 38 LD 4, Grn 16 Chedburgh - Con 48, Lab 46, LD 6 Hundon - Con 48, LD 52 delighted to see a new entrant when the existing team had been fwindling
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 27, 2017 21:07:47 GMT
Kingstone - Lab 50, Con 10, LD 5, Grn 25, Ind 10 Thetford Priory - Con 42 Lab 48 UKIP 10 Trimdon & Thornley - Con 32, Lab 50, LD 4, Grn 10, Ind 4 Stretton - Con 40, Lab 45, LD 5, Ind 5, UKIP 5 Toddbrook - Con 35, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 15, UKIP 5 Washburn - Con 33, Lab 43, Grn 17, Ind 7 Tain & Easter Ross - Con 10 , Lab 35, Ind 5, Ind 3, Ind 5, SNP 42 Halton-with-Aughton - Con 36, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 19 Eastfield - Con 43, Lab 48, LD 8 Nene Valley - Con 42, Lab 38 LD 4, Grn 16 Chedburgh - Con 48, Lab 46, LD 6 Hundon - Con 48, LD 52 delighted to see a new entrant when the existing team had been fwindling Fwindling while Ross polls? disgraceful.
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Post by lancastrian on Sept 27, 2017 21:25:23 GMT
Barnsley: Lab 67 Con 10 Green 8 BNP 6 LD 5 Demos 4 Breckland: Lab 50 Con 35 UKIP 15 Durham: Lab 62 UKIP 12 Con 12 Ind 8 LD 6 East Staffs: SOS 32 Con 30 Lab 23 Ind 5 UKIP 5 LD 5 Harlow: Lab 52 Con 26 UKIP 12 Green 5 LD 5 Harrogate: Con 55 Lab 20 Green 15 Yorkshire 10 Highland: Ind (Rhind) 27 LD 24 SNP 22 Ind (Holdsworth) 14 Con 8 Libertarian 5 Lancaster: Green 35 Con 30 Lab 28 LD 7 Northampton Eastfield: Lab 60 Con 30 LD 10 Northampton Nene Valley: Con 46 Lab 41 LD 8 Green 5 St Edmundsbury Chedburgh: Con 50 Lab 25 LD 25 St Edmundsbury Hundon: Con 52 LD 48
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Post by greenhert on Sept 27, 2017 23:13:38 GMT
My predictions for this week:
Barnsley MBC, Kingstone: Labour 64, Conservative 19, Green 6, BNP 5, Liberal Democrats 4, Demos Direct Initiative 2. Breckland DC, Thetford Priory: Labour 45, Conservative 41, UKIP 14. Durham UA, Trindon & Thornley: Labour 64, Conservative 16, Independent 10, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 5. East Staffordshire DC, Stretton: Save Our Stretton 38, Conservative 32, Labour 20, UKIP 6, Liberal Democrats 4. Harlow BC, Toddbrook: Labour 54, Conservative 33, UKIP 7, Green 3, Liberal Democrats 3. Harrogate BC, Washburn: Conservative 59, Labour 18, Green 15, Yorkshire 8. Highland UA, Tain & Easter Ross: Independent (Rhind) 30, Liberal Democrats 28, SNP 21, Independent (Holdsworth) 11, Conservative 9, Libertarian 1. Lancaster BC, Halton with Aughton: Green 40, Conservative 32, Labour 22, Liberal Democrats 6. Northampton BC, Eastfield: Labour 48, Conservative 44, Liberal Democrats 8. Northampton BC, Nene Valley: Conservative 55, Labour 32, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 5. St Edmundsbury DC, Chedburgh: Conservative 66, Labour 20, Liberal Democrats 14. St Edmundsbury DC, Hundon: Conservative 56, Liberal Democrats 44.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 27, 2017 23:26:17 GMT
Barnsley MBC, Kingstone: Labour 65, Conservative 15, Green 7, BNP 6, Liberal Democrats 5, Demos Direct Initiative 2. Breckland DC, Thetford Priory: Labour 48, Conservative 39, UKIP 13. Durham UA, Trindon & Thornley: Labour 60, Conservative 14, Independent 17, Green 4, Liberal Democrats 5. East Staffordshire DC, Stretton: Save Our Stretton 21, Conservative 41, Labour 26, UKIP 8, Liberal Democrats 4. Harlow BC, Toddbrook: Labour 55, Conservative 30, UKIP 8, Green 2, Liberal Democrats 5. Harrogate BC, Washburn: Conservative 63, Labour 14, Green 18, Yorkshire 5. Highland UA, Tain & Easter Ross: Independent (Rhind) 24, Liberal Democrats 21, SNP 22, Independent (Holdsworth) 12, Conservative 18, Libertarian 3. Lancaster BC, Halton with Aughton: Green 35, Conservative 40, Labour 15, Liberal Democrats 10. Northampton BC, Eastfield: Labour 42, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 20. Northampton BC, Nene Valley: Conservative 55, Labour 31, Liberal Democrats 11, Green 3. St Edmundsbury DC, Chedburgh: Conservative 59, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 25. St Edmundsbury DC, Hundon: Conservative 65, Liberal Democrats 35.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 28, 2017 1:33:28 GMT
Barnsley, Kingstone: Lab 67,Con 15, Green 8, LD 5, BNP 5 ,DDI 3 Breckland, Thetford Priory: Lab 46, Con 40, UKIP 14 Durham, Trindon & Thornley: Lab 50, Con 28, LD 10, Ind 8, Green 4 E Staffs, Stretton: Lab 34, Con 30, SOS 28, LD 5, UKIP 3 Harlow, Toddbrook: Lab 50, Con 28, LD 12, Green 6, UKIP 4 Harrogate, Washburn: Con 60, Lab 16, Green 16, Yorks 8 Highland, Tain & E Ross: SNP 30, Ind Rhind 26, LD 24, Con 10, Ind Holdsworth 6, Libertarian 4 (LD elected at stage 5) Lancaster, Halton w Aughton: Green 40, Con 33, Lab 22, LD 5 Northampton, Eastfield: Lab 46, Con 45, LD 9 Northampton, Nene Valley: Con 58, Lab 30, LD 7, Green 5 St Edmundsbury, Chedburgh: Con 62, Lab 22, LD 16 Sr Edmundsbury, Hindon: Con 66, LD 34
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 28, 2017 6:33:15 GMT
delighted to see a new entrant when the existing team had been fwindling Fwindling while Ross polls? disgraceful. dat dingers I'm adraif
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
Member is Online
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Post by hempie on Sept 28, 2017 7:25:44 GMT
Barnsley, Kingstone: Lab 66, Con 17, Green 5, BNP 5, LD 5, DDI 2 Breckland, Thetford Priory: Lab 43, Con 41, UKIP 16 Durham, Trimdon & Thornley: Lab 64, Con 14, Ind 12, Green 5, LD 5 East Staffordshire, Stretton: Save Our Stretton 34, Con 31, Lab 22, UKIP 8, LD 5 Harlow, Toddbrook: Lab 52, Con 32, UKIP 8, LD 5, Green 3 Harrogate, Washburn: Con 62, Lab 22, Green 10, Yorkshire 6 Highland, Tain & Easter Ross: Ind (Rhind) 31, LD 28, SNP 20, Con 11, Ind (Holdsworth) 9,Libertarian 1 Lancaster, Halton with Aughton: Green 33, Con 32, Lab 27 LD 8 Northampton, Eastfield: Lab 50, Con 40, LD 10 Northampton, Nene Valley: Con 51 Lab 35, LD 10, Green 4 St Edmundsbury, Chedburgh: Con 63, Lab 24, LD 13 St Edmundsbury,Hundon: Con 63, LD 37
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Post by samdwebber on Sept 28, 2017 10:49:58 GMT
Kingstone - Lab 50, Con 10, LD 5, Grn 25, Ind 10 Thetford Priory - Con 42 Lab 48 UKIP 10 Trimdon & Thornley - Con 32, Lab 50, LD 4, Grn 10, Ind 4 Stretton - Con 40, Lab 45, LD 5, Ind 5, UKIP 5 Toddbrook - Con 35, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 15, UKIP 5 Washburn - Con 33, Lab 43, Grn 17, Ind 7 Tain & Easter Ross - Con 10 , Lab 35, Ind 5, Ind 3, Ind 5, SNP 42 Halton-with-Aughton - Con 36, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 19 Eastfield - Con 43, Lab 48, LD 8 Nene Valley - Con 42, Lab 38 LD 4, Grn 16 Chedburgh - Con 48, Lab 46, LD 6 Hundon - Con 48, LD 52
Assume you mean LD not Lab in Tain?
Tain & Easter Ross - Con 10 , Lab 35, Ind 5, Ind 3, Ind 5, SNP 42
Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10577/prediction-competition-september-2017?page=4#ixzz4tyA4wF4h
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 18:27:34 GMT
Kingstone - Lab 50, Con 10, LD 5, Grn 25, Ind 10 Thetford Priory - Con 42 Lab 48 UKIP 10 Trimdon & Thornley - Con 32, Lab 50, LD 4, Grn 10, Ind 4 Stretton - Con 40, Lab 45, LD 5, Ind 5, UKIP 5 Toddbrook - Con 35, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 15, UKIP 5 Washburn - Con 33, Lab 43, Grn 17, Ind 7 Tain & Easter Ross - Con 10 , Lab 35, Ind 5, Ind 3, Ind 5, SNP 42 Halton-with-Aughton - Con 36, Lab 40, LD 5, Grn 19 Eastfield - Con 43, Lab 48, LD 8 Nene Valley - Con 42, Lab 38 LD 4, Grn 16 Chedburgh - Con 48, Lab 46, LD 6 Hundon - Con 48, LD 52
Assume you mean LD not Lab in Tain?
Tain & Easter Ross - Con 10 , Lab 35, Ind 5, Ind 3, Ind 5, SNP 42
Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10577/prediction-competition-september-2017?page=4#ixzz4tyA4wF4h
Nope definitely meant Labour.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 28, 2017 20:13:26 GMT
Just the six entries this week with William Hone making a guest appearance. He gets 35 additional faults for having a non-existent Labour candidate in the Highlands ahead on first preferences whilst there are a further 13 additional faults for then having 3 unidentified Independents rather than 2 Independents and a Libertarian as well as 1 additional fault for adding to 99% in Northampton, Eastfield. Lancastrian gets 12 additional faults in Durham for having a UKIP candidate rather than a Green and a further 5 additional faults for having an Independent in East Staffordshire, Stretton as well as Save Our Stretton Independent. Yellow Peril gets 3 additional faults for adding to 103% in Barnsley.
Barnsley, Kingstone: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 25% (William Hone over Green) to 57% (Lancastrian over Conservative) Breckland, Thetford Priory: 100 % Labour gain from Conservative with majority ranging from 2% (hempie) to 15% (Lancastrian) Durham, Trimdon & Thornley: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 18% (William Hone over Conservative) to 50% (hempie & Lancastrian) East Staffordshire, Stretton: 3 Save our Stretton gain from Conservative, William Hone & Yellow Peril Labour gain and Robert Waller Conservative hold Harlow, Toddbrook: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 5% (William Hone) to 26% (Lancastrian) Harrogate, Washburn: 5 Conservative hold, William Hone Labour gain Highland: Tain & Easter Ross: 4 Independent Rhind ahead on first preferences with Yellow Peril SNP ahead Lancaster, Halton & Aughton: 4 Green gain from Independent, Robert Waller Conservative gain and William Hone Labour gain Northampton, Eastfield: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 1% (Yellow Peril) to 30% (Lancastrian) Northampton, Nene Valley: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Labour ranging from 4% (William Hone) to 28% (Yellow Peril) St Edmundsbury, Chedburgh: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 2% (William Hone over Labour) to 46% (greenrobinhood over Labour) St Edmundsbury, Hundon: 5 Conservative hold with share ranging from 52% (Lancastrian) to 66% (Yellow Peril) with William Hone Liberal Democrat gain
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 20:37:52 GMT
Just the six entries this week with William Hone making a guest appearance. He gets 35 additional faults for having a non-existent Labour candidate in the Highlands ahead on first preferences whilst there are a further 13 additional faults for then having 3 unidentified Independents rather than 2 Independents and a Libertarian as well as 1 additional fault for adding to 99% in Northampton, Eastfield. Lancastrian gets 12 additional faults in Durham for having a UKIP candidate rather than a Green and a further 5 additional faults for having an Independent in East Staffordshire, Stretton as well as Save Our Stretton Independent. Yellow Peril gets 3 additional faults for adding to 103% in Barnsley. Barnsley, Kingstone: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 25% (William Hone over Green) to 57% (Lancastrian over Conservative) Breckland, Thetford Priory: 100 % Labour gain from Conservative with majority ranging from 2% (hempie) to 15% (Lancastrian) Durham, Trimdon & Thornley: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 18% (William Hone over Conservative) to 50% (hempie & Lancastrian) East Staffordshire, Stretton: 3 Save our Stretton gain from Conservative, William Hone & Yellow Peril Labour gain and Robert Waller Conservative hold Harlow, Toddbrook: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 5% (William Hone) to 26% (Lancastrian) Harrogate, Washburn: 5 Conservative hold, William Hone Labour gain Highland: Tain & Easter Ross: 4 Independent Rhind ahead on first preferences with Yellow Peril SNP ahead Lancaster, Halton & Aughton: 4 Green gain from Independent, Robert Waller Conservative gain and William Hone Labour gain Northampton, Eastfield: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 1% (Yellow Peril) to 30% (Lancastrian) Northampton, Nene Valley: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Labour ranging from 4% (William Hone) to 28% (Yellow Peril) St Edmundsbury, Chedburgh: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 2% (William Hone over Labour) to 46% (greenrobinhood over Labour) St Edmundsbury, Hundon: 5 Conservative hold with share ranging from 52% (Lancastrian) to 66% (Yellow Peril) with William Hone Liberal Democrat gain Re Tain, its a fair cop. I shall have to read the SOPN sober next time....
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 29, 2017 13:08:18 GMT
I must say, that after 32 byelections this month, it's so close that I can't be sure whether Hempie or I have won!
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 29, 2017 17:25:58 GMT
Authority | Ward | David Boothroyd | green robinhood | hempie | Lancastrian | Robert Waller | Yellow Peril | Lifeless | William Hone | Weeks 1 to 3 | faults | 748.8 | 566.8 | 555.9 | 583.4 | 542.2 | 751.7 | 983.0 | 2,000.0 | Barnsley | Kingstone | 100 | 33.6
| 33.6
| 28.4
| 28.4
| 33.0+3 | 100 | 55.0
| Breckland | Thetford Priory | 100 | 25.4
| 29.4
| 15.4
| 19.4
| 23.4
| 100 | 25.1
| Durham | Trimdon & Thornley | 100 | 26.0
| 22.0
| 23.3+12 | 20.0
| 54.7
| 100 | 68.0
| East Staffs | Stretton | 100 | 30.3+10
| 32.3+10
| 29.3+10+5 | 26.6
| 35.1+10
| 100 | 60.6+10
| Harlow | Toddbrook | 100 | 6.9
| 8.6
| 20.5
| 14.3
| 27.1
| 100 | 31.1
| Harrogate | Washburn | 100 | 31.1
| 25.1
| 39.1
| 23.1
| 29.1
| 100 | 83.1+10
| Highlands | Tain & Easter Ross | 100 | 44.7
| 44.5
| 50.7
| 54.5
| 46.8
| 100 | 100 | Lancaster | Halton with Aughton | 100 | 37.3+10
| 23.3+10
| 24.6+10
| 43.3+10
| 39.5+10
| 100 | 44.9
| Northampton | Eastfield | 100 | 29.0
| 21.0
| 20.0
| 17.0
| 31.0
| 100 | 28.0+1 | Northampton | Nene Valley | 100 | 24.2
| 25.2
| 37.2
| 22.2
| 26.2
| 100 | 51.3
| St Edmundsbury | Chedburgh | 100 | 5.3
| 5.7
| 31.7
| 27.0
| 9.0
| 100 | 46.7
| St Edmundsbury | Hundon | 100 | 49.2
| 35.2
| 57.2
| 31.2
| 29.2
| 100 | 65.2+10
| Week 4 total | Faults | 1,200 | 362.8
| 325.7
| 414.1
| 336.9
| 406.7
| 1,200 | 689.9
| Week 4
| Position |
| 3rd
| 1st
| 5th
| 2nd
| 4th
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| 6th
| Month total | Faults | 1,948.8 | 929.6
| 881.7
| 997.5
| 879.1
| 1,158.5
| 2,183.0 | 2,689.9
| Month | Position | 6th
| 3rd
| 2nd
| 4th
| 1st
| 5th
| 7th
| 8th
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Apologies for the delayed posting but we are putting the house on the market and have spent much of the day with people measuring up, assessing energy efficiencies and taking photographs. Still it is Robert Waller by a short head. Objections please by noon Sunday. I am not sure, but the prediction competition may now have run its course. If there is the demand I will continue during October, in memory of Mark, particularly if Pete Whitehead and some of the former regulars do return - at least for one last month.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 29, 2017 17:50:42 GMT
Well, I certainly think a prediction competition should continue and hope it will - and not because I managed to sneak a win this month! I found when Paul Maggs stopped doing his international Election Game a couple of years ago that as a result I stopped following worldwide elections closely. I would not like the same to happen with British local elections. The competition probably plays a similarly valuable role for others. I hope Middleenglander will decide to continue, and that there will be more entrants next month. However, unless he thinks he has a proprietorial right over the competition, if he does wish to stop, I would myself offer to continue as organiser - or support anyone else who might do so. I wouldn't do it as well, though!
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 29, 2017 18:27:47 GMT
Well done Robert, both for winning such a hard fought contest and for the offer there to take over if necessary. Yes we certainly need new blood and/or returning old blood, on the competing side, and as observed a month or so ago, maybe a greater range of political viewpoint among the competitors too. Absolutely agree that the competition gives the excuse to get in and really study hard what is going on on the ground, which is why I took on providing the old election results on the other thread for a month or two, in order to learn more how things work ( not that that seems to have help me improve my predictive abilities ) it would certainly be lovely if there could be a big response in October, first as a sign of respect for Mark, as suggested, and also to let middleenglander know that the competition is and always has been greatly valued by those who have taken part over the years, and of course the huge amount of work he has put into it is properly valued also.
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