Post by jluk234 on Aug 28, 2017 16:09:00 GMT
In 2001, the Conservatives were breathing down Labour and the SNP's necks in some seats. Most of these seats then went under severe boundary changes to create the 59 we have today e.g. Labour had a 4.5% majority in Edinburgh Pentlands whilst they had a notional majority of 17.9% in Edinburgh South West. Most of the Conservative leaning seats were then gerrymandered by splitting said seats and merging them with safe Labour areas.
I would have thought that the Conservatives would have gained 3 seats in Scotland if Blair hadn't changed the boundaries.
PERTH
In 2001, the SNP held Perth by 48 votes. I believe that this seat would have been won by the Conservatives in 2005 as due to the wafer thin majority, the Conservatives would have probably put a lot of resources into taking it back. Secondly, the SNP vote dropped nationally and it dropped too in the two Perthshire seats. Thirdly, I believe that the Conservatives would have put the same candidate up again. In the EU Elections, the Conservatives came first in 1999 and 2004. In 2001, there was a 3.5% swing from the SNP to the Conservatives.
EDINBURGH PENTLANDS
In 2001, Labour held Edinburgh Pentlands by 1,742 votes. Like Perth, I believe that the Conservatives would have won this seat as well. As it is much more marginal than it's successor, Rifkind would probably be the candidate for Pentlands and not Kensington & Chelsea. Furthermore, as the candidate would be the former Foreign & Defence Secretaries, it would probably become one of their Key Targets. Thus, more resources would be put into the seat. Furthermore, the Conservatives won the Holyrood equivalent in 2003. In the EU Elections, the Conservatives came first in 1999 and 2004. Labour would experience the Iraq War affect in the seat causing their vote to drop. In 2001, there was a 3.1% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
AYR
In 2001, Labour held Ayr by 2,545 votes. Alongside, Perth and Pentlands, I believe that the Ayr seat would have been a Conservative gain. The Ayr constituency is much more marginal than either of its successors - ACC had a notional majority of 26.5% and Central Ayrshire had a notional majority of 23% - meaning more resources would be put into the seat. Phill Gallie would have probably been the candidate again. Furthermore, the Conservatives won the Holyrood equivalent in a 2000 by election and then held it in 2003. In the EU Elections, the Conservatives came first in 1999 and 2004. Labour would experience the Iraq War affect in the seat causing their vote to drop. In 2001, there was a 4.1% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
I would have thought that the Conservatives would have gained 3 seats in Scotland if Blair hadn't changed the boundaries.
PERTH
In 2001, the SNP held Perth by 48 votes. I believe that this seat would have been won by the Conservatives in 2005 as due to the wafer thin majority, the Conservatives would have probably put a lot of resources into taking it back. Secondly, the SNP vote dropped nationally and it dropped too in the two Perthshire seats. Thirdly, I believe that the Conservatives would have put the same candidate up again. In the EU Elections, the Conservatives came first in 1999 and 2004. In 2001, there was a 3.5% swing from the SNP to the Conservatives.
EDINBURGH PENTLANDS
In 2001, Labour held Edinburgh Pentlands by 1,742 votes. Like Perth, I believe that the Conservatives would have won this seat as well. As it is much more marginal than it's successor, Rifkind would probably be the candidate for Pentlands and not Kensington & Chelsea. Furthermore, as the candidate would be the former Foreign & Defence Secretaries, it would probably become one of their Key Targets. Thus, more resources would be put into the seat. Furthermore, the Conservatives won the Holyrood equivalent in 2003. In the EU Elections, the Conservatives came first in 1999 and 2004. Labour would experience the Iraq War affect in the seat causing their vote to drop. In 2001, there was a 3.1% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
AYR
In 2001, Labour held Ayr by 2,545 votes. Alongside, Perth and Pentlands, I believe that the Ayr seat would have been a Conservative gain. The Ayr constituency is much more marginal than either of its successors - ACC had a notional majority of 26.5% and Central Ayrshire had a notional majority of 23% - meaning more resources would be put into the seat. Phill Gallie would have probably been the candidate again. Furthermore, the Conservatives won the Holyrood equivalent in a 2000 by election and then held it in 2003. In the EU Elections, the Conservatives came first in 1999 and 2004. Labour would experience the Iraq War affect in the seat causing their vote to drop. In 2001, there was a 4.1% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
