Mongolian presidential election 2017

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Mongolia will be electing a new president on 26 June. Only parties with seats in the State Great Khural can nominate a candidate, and the 2016 election was a landslide for the Mongolian People's Party (getting 65 of 76 seats), so only two other parties got represented.

The ex-Comminust Mongolian People's Party (65 seats) have nominated the their party leader Miyeegombyn Enkhbold (52), who is an economist and Speaker of the Great Khural. He was Mayor of Ulan Bator 1999-2006, PM 2006–2007 and Deputy PM 2007-12. I have seen no polls, but he should be favoured.

The conservative Democratic Party (9 seats) has chosen their leader Khaltmaagiin Battulga (54) (or Battulga Khaltmaa as he is usually called in a Western media - Khaltmaa is the patronymic), who was in the cabinet 2008-14 and an MP until their disastrous election last year. He is a former street kid, art school educated painter, self-made businessman, wrestler, judo fighter and former Mongolian champion in the Red Army's very own martial art Sambo and father of eight (so quite a guy...). He became the chairman of the Mongolian Judo Federation and used his international contacts to start an import-export business after which he bought up state assets (hotels, factories etc.) and got quite wealthy before entering politics with a free market and investor friendly message. Got a lot of enemies for his agitation against the cartel of well-connected businessmen that controls the coal mining sector. Has campaigned against Mongolia's economic dependency of China.

The Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (1) originally nominated its founder former president (2005-09) Nambaryn Enkhbayar (59), who has had nearly all the top jobs in Mongolian politics and is a former chairman of the Mongolian People's Party back when it was called the Mongolian People's Revolutionary (and SG beforehand). But the Electoral Commission banned him from running since he has a criminal record (for corruption) and hasn't spent the last five years in the country. The party then nominated trade unionist Sainkhüügiin Ganbaatar (46), which caused their only MP to quit the party in protest against being sidelined - and gave Sainkhüügiin a seat as he was his substitute.

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Election 2017: Making Mongolia Great Again? Exploring the role of nationalism in Mongolia’s presidential campaign

"A seemingly nationalist turn is obvious right away in the campaigns of the three contenders (...) In this regard, the tone of this election is somewhat different from previous contests.

One of Enkhbold’s slogans is “United Mongolia will win,” while Battulga is campaigning on “Mongolia will win.” Not only are these oddly similar (and, in substantive policy terms, meaningless) slogans, but they both include “Mongolia.” Across all three platforms it is noticeable that the candidates repeatedly refer to “Mongolian” and “Mongolia” where previous campaigns might not have.

Similarly emphasizing Mongol-ness, the candidates are frequently appearing in campaign literature wearing a traditional deel. While there are also images of the candidates in suits, the deels seem to be proliferating."

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The polls have closed in Mongolia, but there will be no exit poll.

A couple of good articles, which tells about the slump in the economy after record growth, IMF bailout, austerity and the sale of government posts scandal. 

www.dw.com/en/mongolia-votes-for-new-president-in-divisive-election/a-39410421

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-26/mongolia-awaits-outcome-after-bruising-presidential-election

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Fun fact: Sainkhuu Ganbaatar ran a feng shui practice for many years. They would likely need some redecoration of the presidential palace if he won.

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The General Election Committee says will be a run-off for the first time in an Mongolian presidential election. Khaltmaa Battulga won the most votes, but failed to get a majority. Whether its Miyeegombo Enkhbold (MPP) or Sainkhuu Ganbaatar (MPRP) who join him in the run-off is still not finally decided. It would be a sensation if Miyeegombo Enkhbold miss the run-off. 

The (approximate) preliminary results are: 
Khaltmaa Battulga 39%
Sainkhuu Ganbaatar 32%
Miyegombo Enkhbold 30%

So it seems he is out... but not finalized.

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Jun 27, 2017 0:43:50 GMT @odo said:

A true anti-establishment result by the Mongols. They have never had to deal with cohabitation before. Sainkhuu Ganbaatar campaigned on a fairer distribution of mineral riches, a lot of young people voted for him. Hard to say how the Mongolian People's Party vote will split. Its between two populists.

Nah... it seems the official result has Sainkhuu Ganbaatar 30.19% and Miyegombo Enkhbold at 30.3%. I wonder that will be accepted by the former's supporter.  
www.ikon.mn

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Khaltmaa Battulga should win this comfortably given his lead and the prevailing anti-establishment mood in the country. Hard to see the unemployed, underemployed and students who backed Sainkhuu Ganbaatar turning out for for Miyegombo Enkhbold.

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Blue - Khaltmaagiin Battulga
Red - Miyeegombyn Enkhbold
Yellow - Sainkhuugiin Ganbaatar

Afaik the extremely high vote for Battulga in Bayankhongor province is simply because that is where his family came from. Though they lost everything in a flood and moved to the capital.

[cogload]

Wnich one does China favour?

[Arthur Figgis]

Myang likes.

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Jun 27, 2017 18:04:59 GMT cogload said:

Which one does China favour?

Enkhbold, Battulga has been very critical of Mongolia's dependency on China and wants to diversify trade and encourage investments from other countries in order to balance it. He also has excellent contacts to Japan. Besides they are generally more comfortable with the ex-Communists (like with like) and a president and parliament from different sides would equal "instability" seen from China's POV.

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Sainkhuugiin Ganbaatar and MPRP have refused to recognise the narrow defeat. Ganbaatar missed the run-off by a mere 1,849 votes after leading Enkhbold by around two percent in the first prognosis. They claim that 35,000 extra votes were fraudulently added to the result in the far west (where Enkhbold won big). MPRP have demanded a recount in the country's westernmost province the 90%+ ethnically Kazakh Bayan-Ölgii. The province experienced a big exodus of Kazakhs after the fall of the Soviet Union, though many have since returned home. This means that the population registers are unreliable and many living in Kazakhstan are still on the electoral rolls. In addition around a third of the population don't understand Mongolian and that makes it easier to manipulate them. 

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No result yet, but there is an interesting possibility:

"the country's 1.9 million voters also have a third option, according to the so-called "White Ballot" campaign, to leave their votes blank. "Our goal is to have every voter know they have an option to vote for none of the above," Mogi Badral Bantoi, spokesman for the campaign, said. For many voters, handing in blank ballots is a last-ditch effort to deny either candidate a majority, so forcing a re-run of the poll from scratch, with selection of fresh candidates."

www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/mongolians-vote-presidential-runoff-170707064531675.html

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50.6% Khaltmaagiin Battulga
41.2% Miyeegombyn Enkhbold
8.2% Invalid/blank

60.8% turnout (down from 68.27% in the first round)

www.ikon.mn

Looks like the final result, so Battulga made it above 50% despite the "white vote" campaign. 

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So "cohabitation" it is. For the first time in Mongolia.

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Dr. Julian Dierkes is an associate professor at the Institute of Asian Research at UBC in Vancouver, and is basically the only Mongolia expert with an online presence. His take is that Battulga will likely be another corrupt populist strongman, but given that he is an intelligent and unorthodox guy there is a hope he won't (more like a pipe dream imo, but nice that he isn't cynical). Ekhbold is history and his defeat will unleash a merciless power struggle between the people who want MPP to become a Social Democratic party with actual policies and those who want it to rely on having the best organization, duping the rural population and cater to the oligarchs. Since MPP have nearly all the seats in parliament they can afford a lot of defections, but it also means nearly all the high offices of state are up for grabs (= potential chaos).

thediplomat.com/2017/07/mongolia-just-chose-a-new-president-what-now

In most post-Communist countries the result of a fight between people wanting an ex-Communist "party of state" to have actual leftist policies vs. those wanting it to cater to oligarchs would be a given, but Mongolia sometimes produces decent politicians, so the "political" wing isn't without chances. Its remarkable how much better Mongolian politics has turned out than Central Asian, given that Mongolia in many ways was an external Soviet republic.