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Post by middleenglander on Jun 18, 2017 23:25:21 GMT
There are 9 by-elections in the final two weeks of June forming this month's competition:
* 5 on 22 June
* 4 on 29 June
3 of the contests are in District Councils
- 1 with all out elections in 2015 and 2 with annual elections; 1 where the ward was last contested in 2015 and 1 in 2016
3 in Unitary Authorities
- 2 with all out elections in 2015 and 1 in May 2017 where the elected Councillor was ineligible
1 in an Metropolitan Borough with all out elections in 2016
1 in a London Borough last contested in 2014
1 in a Welsh authority last contested in 2012 with no candidates in May 2017
Conservatives defend 4 seats, 3 after resignations following election as Executive Mayor and 1 another resignation
Labour is defending 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor, 1 a resignation and 1 ineligible
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat after a resignation
Independents defend 1 seat won in 2012
With nominations available for all 9 seats:
Labour contest 8, Conservatives 7, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 4, UKIP 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- there are 4 Independents contesting 2 seats along with 1 Our West Lancs and 1 Seaham Community, a total of 32 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
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Post by marksenior on Jun 21, 2017 21:02:37 GMT
East Cambs Con 54 Lab 30 LD 16
Powys Ind DE 26 Ind CD 22 Ind SD 20 Plaid 16 Con 13 Green 5
S Glos Con 48 Lab 30 LD 22
Stockton Yarm Ind 34 Con 32 Lab 29 LD 5
Sheffield Lab 58 Green 28 LD 14
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Post by greenhert on Jun 21, 2017 22:17:13 GMT
My predictions for this week:
East Cambridgeshire DC, Soham North: Conservatives 55, Labour 31, Liberal Democrats 14.
Powys UA, Yscir: Independent (Daniel Evans) 28, Independent (Chris Davies) 24, Independent (Steve Davies) 21, Plaid Cymru 12, Conservative 11, Green 4.
South Gloucestershire UA, Winterbourne: Conservative 45, Labour 32, Liberal Democrats 23.
Stockton-On-Tees UA, Yarm: Independent 37, Conservative 32, Labour 27, Liberal Democrats 4.
Sheffield MBC, Nether Edge & Sharrow: Labour 60, Green 30, Liberal Democrats 10.
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 21, 2017 23:21:38 GMT
East Cambridgeshire: Con 50 Lab 30 LD 20
Powys: Ind(Evans) 30 Ind (C Davies) 24 Ind (S Davies) 16 PC 16 Con 8 Green 6
South Gloucestershire: Con 47 Lab 40 LD 13
Stockton: Ind 39 Con 28 Lab 27 LD 6
Sheffield: Lab 67 Green 21 LD 12
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 21, 2017 23:46:41 GMT
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE Soham North: C 44, L Dem 37, Lab 19
POWYS Yscir: PC 30, Ind C Davies 20, C 17, Ind Evans 16, GP 11, Ind S Davies 6
SHEFFIELD Nether Edge and Sharrow: Lab 63, GP 29, L Dem 8
SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE Winterbourne: L Dem 40, C 36, Lab 24
STOCKTON-ON-TEES Yarm: Ind 37, C 32, Lab 21, L Dem 10
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2017 5:20:39 GMT
East Cambs,Soham N:Con 50, Lab 30,LD 20
Powys.Yscir:PC 26,Ind Davies(C) 22, Con 18, Ind Evans 18, Green 8, Ind Davies(S) 8
Sheffield, Nether Edge & Sharrow: Lab 60, LD 21, Green 19
South Glos, Winterbourne: Con 55.Lab 29,LD 16
Stockton-on-Tees,Yarm:Ind 33,Con 27, Lab 25 LD 15
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Post by hempie on Jun 22, 2017 7:16:40 GMT
East Cambridgeshire, Soham North: Con 50, LD 30, Lab 20
Powys, Yscir: Ind Daniel Evans 26, Ind Chris Davies 25, Ind Steve Davies 16, PC 12, Green 11, Con 10
Sheffield, Nether Edge & Sharrow: Lab 58, Green 30, LD 12
South Gloucestershire, Winterbourne: Con 42, Lab 30, LD 28
Stockton-On-Tees, Yarm: Ind 36, Con 30, Lab 28, LD 6
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 22, 2017 12:36:15 GMT
Oh, what with examining and the book and such I forgot to post my predictions - though I did actually do some research.  This is my entry: East Cambridgeshire, Soham North: Con 45, LD 20, Lab 35 Powys, Yscir: Ind Daniel Evans 26, Ind Chris Davies 20, Ind Steve Davies 15, PC 20, Green 9, Con 10 Sheffield, Nether Edge & Sharrow: Lab 66, Green 22, LD 12 South Gloucestershire, Winterbourne: Con 50, Lab 25, LD 25 Stockton-On-Tees, Yarm: Ind 10, Con 46, Lab 36, LD 8 Hope that'll get me a point or two for 'turning up' this month ... |
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 22, 2017 20:45:17 GMT
Just 7 entries this week with nothing from brianj, Carlton43 and Pete Whitehead amongst others. Robert Waller gets 5 x 5 x 5 additional faults for a late posting at nearly half past one whilst Mark Senior gets 2 additional faults for adding to 102% in Powys, Yscir.
East Cambridgeshire, Soham North: 100% Conservative hold, majority ranging from 7% (David Boothroyd over Liberal Democrat) to 24% (greenrobinhood & Mark Senior over Labour)
Powys, Yscir: 5 Independent Evans wins, David Boothroyd & Yellow Peril Plaid Cymru wins
Sheffield, Nether Edge & Sharrow: 100% Labour hold, majority ranging from 28% (hempie over Green) to 46% (Lancastrian over Green)
South Gloucestershire, Winterbourne: 6 Conservative hold, majority ranging from 7% (Lancastrian over Labour) to 26% (Yellow Peril over Labour), David Boothroyd Liberal Democrat gain
Stockton-On-Tees, Yarm: 6 Independent gain from Conservative, majority ranging from 2% (Mark Senior) to 11% (Lancastrian), Robert Waller Conservative hold
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 23, 2017 14:28:56 GMT
Current week:| Authority | East
Cambridgeshire | Powys | Sheffield
| South
Gloucestershire | Stockton
-on-Tees | Week | Week | Ward | Soham North | Yscir | Nether Edge
& Sharrow | Winterbourne | Yarm | faults | position | David Boothroyd | 31.3 | 44.4+10
| 36.0
| 43.4+10
| 37.5+10
| 222.7
| 6th
| greenrobinhood | 31.5 | 74.9+10
| 30.0
| 9.4
| 37.5+10
| 203.4
| 4th
| hempie | 19.3 | 60.9+10
| 26.0
| 19.4
| 41.5+10
| 187.2
| 1st
| Lancastrian | 29.5 | 68.9+10
| 44.0
| 12.5
| 45.5+10
| 220.4
| 5th
| Mark Senior | 29.5 | 66.9+10+2
| 29.5
| 7.5
| 37.5+10
| 192.9
| 2nd
| Robert Waller | 39.5+25 | 62.4+10+25
| 42.0+25
| 17.5+25
| 47.8+25
| 344.4
| 7th
| Yellow Peril | 29.5 | 44.4+10
| 47.5
| 14.1
| 47.5+10
| 203.0
| 3rd
| Total | 212.3+25 | 422.8+70+27
| 255.8+25
| 123.8+10+25
| 294.8+60+25
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 4 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday. Anyone know anything about Pete Whitehead? He last posted on Monday.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 23, 2017 14:55:58 GMT
Well, a couple of things I do know about Pete.
He has been working extremely hard helping me with my post-election book, going far beyond I asked (quite a contrast to the various people who promised and then did nothing at all). I know he said he is still beavering away at his own election analysis.
Second, he was in contact with me yesterday Thursday and seemed fine.
He probably did what I sort of did - forgot that the wheel of local byelections has started to grind again!
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 23, 2017 15:12:25 GMT
What a difficult week! Partly trying to work out whether the electors would behave differently right after a rather unexpected general election result, whether they would be all fired up or thoroughly sick of the whole thing, and then Yscir with all its independents coming out and no Lib Dem where before they had been closely challenging. Difficult to predict it would be a good week for the Conservatives or did they by chance have something to prove? So it was an all round car crash and those of our usual gang who opted out were probably very wise Let's hope next week is a bit more normal and Welsh-free  |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2017 16:41:27 GMT
What a difficult week! Partly trying to work out whether the electors would behave differently right after a rather unexpected general election result, whether they would be all fired up or thoroughly sick of the whole thing, and then Yscir with all its independents coming out and no Lib Dem where before they had been closely challenging. Difficult to predict it would be a good week for the Conservatives or did they by chance have something to prove? So it was an all round car crash and those of our usual gang who opted out were probably very wise Let's hope next week is a bit more normal and Welsh-free stop talking down Wales's by elections!  |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 23, 2017 18:10:34 GMT
So it was an all round car crash and those of our usual gang who opted out were probably very wise Let's hope next week is a bit more normal and Welsh-free stop talking down Wales's by elections! Yes I suppose I should, given that even though I was clueless in Powys, the others were even more so. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 28, 2017 9:35:47 GMT
Lest I forget ...
... again!
Durham UA, Dowdon : Lab 55 Seaham Community 45
Eastleigh BC, Hedge End Grange Park : Con 25, Lab 15, LD 55, Green 2, UKIP 3
Waltham Forest LB : Con 10, Lab 80, Green 10
West Lancashire BC, Derby: Con 30, Lab 30, Our West Lancs 40
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Post by marksenior on Jun 28, 2017 15:56:32 GMT
Durham Seaham Comm 51 Lab 49
Eastleigh LD 44 Con 30 Lab 19 UKIP 5 Green 2
Waltham Forest Lab 76 Green 14 Con 10
West Lancs OWL 38 Lab 34 Con 28
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2017 16:12:30 GMT
I will start up again in the predictions in July.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 28, 2017 17:50:39 GMT
Durham UA, Dowdon: Labour 52, Seaham Community 48.
Eastleigh BC, Hedge End Park: Liberal Democrats 48, Conservative 31, Labour 15, UKIP 4, Green 2.
Waltham Forest LBC, William Morris: Labour 78, Green 12, Conservative 10.
West Lancashire BC, Derby: Our West Lancashire 36, Labour 33, Conservative 31.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 28, 2017 19:45:13 GMT
Durham, Dawdon: Lab 51, Seaham Comm 49
Eastleigh, Hedge End Grange Park: LD 45.Con 28, Lab 21, UKIP 3, Green 3
Waltham Forest,William Morris: Lab 70, Green 18, Con 12
West Lancs, Derby: OWL 36, Lab 34, Con 30.
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 28, 2017 21:58:56 GMT
Durham: Lab 55 Seaham 45
Eastleigh: LD 48 Con 27 Lab 18 Green 4 UKIP 3
Waltham Forest: Lab 79 Green 13 Con 8
West Lancashire: Lab 47 OWL 38 Con 15
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