When does Labour next form a government?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

An interesting piece of news I have seen on twitter (but don't know where it came from originally) is that the government has apparently announced the new session of Parliament, to be opened on Wednesday, will last for two years until 2019. This must mean they need all the legislative time for the Brexit arrangements and shows that the government is certainly not going to seek an early election.

Whether it can in fact last is uncertain. Some election decisions have been prompted by Prime Ministers hating trying to govern with an uncertain situation in the House of Commons - Callaghan refused to go for an election in 1978 because his private polls showed there would be another hung Parliament and he couldn't face it continuing, even if delaying led to a majority Conservative government.

[curiousliberal]

Jun 17, 2017 21:20:13 GMT Richard Allen said:

Jun 15, 2017 21:18:43 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It's in the Conservative manifesto. But in the present circumstances I can imagine the Conservatives are not keen to stoke up talk of an early election.

And in the circumstances the DUP surely won't want an early election either. Leaving aside the likely loss of Belfast South why on earth would they give up the power and influence that they have just gained.

Especially considering that facilitating an early election would allow rival unionist parties to level an accusation at them of 'enabling Corbyn and, by extension, SF'.

[greenhert]

If Labour wants a realistic chance of forming the next government, it must win the following seats which have never been Labour-held before at any time:

Southport
Chingford & Woodford Green
East Worthing & Shoreham (neither Worthing nor Shoreham have never had a Labour MP)
Cities of London & Westminster(!)
And quite a few others which were only previously won by Labour in 1945, such as Truro & Falmouth (Penryn & Falmouth, which existed from 1918-1950, covered the entire current Truro & Falmouth seat, plus St Austell, and had a Labour MP from 1945-50) and Chipping Barnet (direct predecessor is Barnet).


www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

[Sibboleth]

Jun 18, 2017 10:59:57 GMT greenhert said:

If Labour wants a realistic chance of forming the next government, it must win the following seats...

Nonsense. It must simply win enough seats. Swings are never uniform* and so-called target lists a nonsense, as we should all have learned by now. It might be that those seats are included, it might not (depends on whether there are any extra Labour votes to be found; how easily or not the Tory vote falls etc).

_{*Contrary to what people claim every single GE they were not in the postwar decades either! Actually if anything they were less likely to be then than in the 80s and 90s.}

[lancastrian]

I think they'll need a few by election wins to form a viable government in this parliament. IMO there will almost certainly be a Labour government after the next election. When the election happens is the question. So the answer to the question of the thread is 'When Arlene says so'. I'll give it 2 years.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jun 25, 2017 18:10:31 GMT lancastrian said:

I think they'll need a few by election wins to form a viable government in this parliament. IMO there will almost certainly be a Labour government after the next election. When the election happens is the question. So the answer to the question of the thread is 'When Arlene says so'. I'll give it 2 years.

Assuming that the last two sentences are correct - which is reasonable enough - I'd be a bit chary of being so sure the result would be a Labour government.

Two years ago David Cameron was master of the universe, UKIP was a force in British politics, and Labour was having a nervous breakdown.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Guys, haven't you learned by now? Never predict anything.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

New Boundaries are probably DOA thanks to the DUP.