Albanian parliamentary election, 2017

[Deleted]

After the ruling Socialist Party and the opposition Democratic Party agreed to form a joint government and move the election a week the opposition called off their electoral boycott and Albania will get a competitive election on 25 June. For the first time the two big parties will refrain from forming multiparty alliances, which is expected to cause havoc for the small parties; although PD have included a few party leaders from small parties on their list. 

The five relevant parties are:

- The ruling Socialist Party (PS) under PM Edi Rama, which are the heirs to Enver Hoxhas old party and a typical unprincipled post-Communist "party of power".
- The Democratic Party (PD), a broad tent centre-right opposition party, which used to be led by über-corrupt Dr. Sali Berisha (PM 2005-13), but has been taken over by a 43-year old lawyer Lulzim Basha, who is a former ICTY investigator and top FN administrator in Kosovo. 
- The Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI), which was founded in 2004 by ex-PM Ilir Meta, who for the first time won't lead them as he is the president-elect (to take office on 1. July). New leader is former Minister of Health Petrit Vasili. It has 16 seats in the outgoing parliament and will get in. There is no policy difference between PS and LSI, but LSI is less corrupt. 
- The Party for Justice, Integration and Unity (PDIU), lobby group for the Cham community (Albanians exiled from Greece after WW II) with a right wing populist profile and advocacy of minority interests/irredentism in Greater Albania.
- Libra, a new "progressive" party founded by ex-student leaders from the early 90s and human rights activists.

Three other parties are represented in the current parliament: The Republican party, a NatCon, but pro-EU party, the Unity for Human Rights Party (Greek minority party, "liberal"), and the Christian Democratic Party of Albania (Christian minority interests, "Christian Democratic"). 

Albania has 140 seats to be elected using closed list PR in 12 asymmetrical multi-member constituencies (one for each county) with a 3% threshold for parties and 5% for alliances in each constituency. 

Seats: 
Tirana 34
Fier 16
Durrës 14
Elbasan 14
Vlorë 12
Korçë 11
Shkodër 11
Berat 7
Lezhë 7
Dibër 6
Gjirokastër 5
Kukës 3

[Deleted]

PD leader Lulzim Basha has ditched a number of veterans from their lists, which could harm the party (and potentially split it). But a cleanup of some sort was probably necessary to signal a break with the corrupt past and stamp his own mark on the party.

[Deleted]

The latest IPR/Ora News poll of the Albanian election from 7 June. Both Libra and PDIU are projected to get 1-3 seats due to regional strength. PS are ahead by a decent margin in all polls, so it looks like Edi Rama & Co. will be reelected.

PS 45%
PD 37%
LSI 13%
Libra 2%
PDIU 1.5%
Others 1.5%

[Deleted]

Edi Rama has been attacking the small parties hard accusing them of seeing their seats as "a cake to be shared out" and not taking national responsibility while urging voters to give PS "sole responsibility for steering the nation" (= "do not force me to work with LSI!"). DP have been going after the small parties as well. Will be interesting to see what happens if either of the Big 2 depends on one or more small parties for a majority. They may raise their prize, especially LSI.

[Deleted]

The US and EU-sponsored agreement between PM Edi Rama and PD leader Lulzim Basha that ensured the opposition's participation in the election has also meant that the two sides agreed to turn down the volume on the campaign in order to avoid clashes, and only allow electoral posters or party flags during parties' pre-election rallies and conduct the rallies without loudspeakers and loud cheering, and most parties have therefore relied more on the media (incl. social media) than rallies. It will be interesting to see if this quiet and minimal electoral campaigning will influence turnout. 

Furthermore politicians employed in the public administration have been restricted from participating in the campaign to minimize the risk of abuse of public funds and the criminal code has been amended with harsher punishments against vote buying and violating the standards of free and fair elections.

Report of the election from the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
under OSCE. 
www.osce.org/odihr/elections/albania/311156?download=true

From the conclusion:

"A number of aspects would merit specific attention by an OSCE/ODIHR election observation activity, including voter and candidate registration; conduct of the campaign including potential vote-buying, pressure and abuse of administrative resources; media coverage; implementation of campaign finance rules; election day procedures; and resolution of possible complaints and appeals."

[Deleted]

Live blog

[Deleted]

"Fun" fact: There are 3,452,260 names on the electoral rolls, but half of those people have emigrated. Only around 2.9 million currently live in Albania. That means the official turnout will be a meaningless figure. 

18 parties on the ballot, down from 66 last time. No alliances (apart from the previously mentioned micro party leaders being allowed to run of the Democrats' lists).

[Deleted]

I can see someone voted for the Party for Justice, Integration and Unity. I suppose that must be a troll vote (or maybe someone just liked the idealistic name?). I wouldn't have thought there would be any sympathizers of irredentist Albanian nationalism on the forum.

[yellowperil]

Only just thought to look at this thread so too late to have voted - I suppose I would be a Libra voter these days but in my days in Albania I was actually quite a fan of Edi Rama, but I suppose in contrast to the Hoxha regime. After all these years I appreciate things change. I don't know much of the far north of the country but know Tirana and Durres quite well,and some bits of the centre and south, such as Berat and Gjirokaster. I always found the Albanian take on Islam encouragingly relaxed and mostly free from some of the less pleasant cultual overtones found in much of the Arab world - women seemed to often be in charge of running the mosques

[Deleted]

Jun 25, 2017 12:48:48 GMT yellowperil said:

Only just thought to look at this thread so too late to have voted - I suppose I would be a Libra voter these days but in my days in Albania I was actually quite a fan of Edi Rama, but I suppose in contrast to the Hoxha regime. After all these years I appreciate things change. I don't know much of the far north of the country but know Tirana and Durres quite well,and some bits of the centre and south, such as Berat and Gjirokaster. I always found the Albanian take on Islam encouragingly relaxed and mostly free from some of the less pleasant cultual overtones found in much of the Arab world - women seemed to often be in charge of running the mosques

It has been an extremely patriarchal society where women had a very low status (with the north being the most reactionary). Women having a bigger role is the result of the forced atheism under the Hoxha regime breaking down the old structures and norms. 

[Deleted]

On misleading turnout stats:

CEC has announced that as of 4:00pm voter turnout stood at 34.72%. 1,198,624 Albanians had already voted, so they compared it to the 3,452,260, who are eligible. In reality there are probably around 1,8 mio. potential voters in the country, so its actually a high turnout.

[Deleted]

CEC has extended the poll to 8:00pm. Brawls between PS and LSI supporters in several towns. 

[yellowperil]

My experience of Albanian society (at first hand but nearly 10 years ago now) was that it was now surprisingly matriarchal.Was my experience atypical, or was this one of the better consequences of communism (even the Hoxha regime wasn't all bad), or was it that the out migration was predominantly male and left a female-majority residual population managing things? I was wondering if the actual electorate as against the phantom one produced by emigration would have a substantial female majority?

[Deleted]

Jun 25, 2017 18:16:55 GMT yellowperil said:

My experience of Albanian society (at first hand but nearly 10 years ago now) was that it was now surprisingly matriarchal.Was my experience atypical, or was this one of the better consequences of communism (even the Hoxha regime wasn't all bad), or was it that the out migration was predominantly male and left a female-majority residual population managing things? I was wondering if the actual electorate as against the phantom one produced by emigration would have a substantial female majority?

I think both emigration and the levelling effect of Communism have played a role. The Communists were dominated by southerners with a modernizing agenda and they in many ways conquered and "colonized" the more backwards north (incl. basing standard Albanian on the Tosk version rather than the northern Gheg). They definitely had an effect on gender roles as they officially supported full gender equality (even though the top positions ofc were held by men). 

[Deleted]

Ora News exit-poll:

PS 45-49%
PD 30-34%
LSI 11-15%
Libra 0.5-2.5%
PDIU 3-5%

[Georg Ebner]

HomoSexuality played once a very big role in the South, making the Tosks the favorites of Lord BYRON...

[Georg Ebner]

...and rumours have been heard, that Hoxha was so furious because he had been raped in Paris.

[Foggy]

I note there are 4 votes for Libra out of 7 on this thread's poll, but only 4 votes out of 92 for October on another one.

[Deleted]

Preliminary results will start being released early Monday morning. No results tonight.

They should be available here: top-channel.tv/lajme/zgjedhje2017.php

[Deleted]

The preliminary results with 30% counted indicates PS gets the desired majority on their own. The turnout is set at 45% (down from 52.7%). 1,514,851 voted, which would be c. 80% f the de facto electorate if the 1,8 mio. estimate is correct.

Socialist Party (PS) 51.4% (should give them 76 seats)
Democratic Party 28.5%
Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) 15.7%