clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on May 28, 2017 1:24:05 GMT
I don't know if this is the right place for this, so feel free to move it should it be better placed elsewhere.Lord Ashcroft has added vote share 'estimates' to his model ( link). I'm guessing the projections are taken from his own polling, but I, personally, don't think they're very accurate when it comes to specific seats - particularly in constituencies that may not generally follow the national swings. Examples (I've only listed the top three parties)- Brighton Pavilion - Lab 37%; 'Oth' 34%; Con 28%
- East Lothian - SNP 36%; Con 33%; Lab 23%
- Edinburgh South - SNP 33%; Lab 32%; Con 28%
- Fife North East - SNP 36%; Con 31%; Lib 21%
- Orkney & Shetland - SNP 34%; Lib 29%; Con 24%
- Sheffield Hallam - Lab 35%; Lib 33%; Con 26%
- Slough - Con 43%; Lab 41%; Lib 9%
Some of these may turn out to be relatively okay, but some, like Orkney & Shetland, look completely laughable, frankly.
It will be interesting to see what people make of their own constituencies. Mine, Newbury, looks wrong - Con 64%; Lib 20%; Lab 12%. I don't see Labour getting into double figures in here and I think that the Lib Dems are probably on at least 30%. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Conservatives on 64%, but I reckon that's probably too high - if the Tories aren't finishing on 44%+ nationally.
I may record the results listed and compare them to the actual results too see how accurate these end up being.
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Post by Lifeless on May 28, 2017 3:30:39 GMT
The year by year comparison confuses me somewhat, it almost seems to imply that SNP won Orkey & Shetland in 2015, but I think it's meant to be suggesting what people who voted in 2015 are planning to vote this year. As for my constituency (Croydon South), it seems mostly correct; Con 59%, Lab 22%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 4%. Conservatives are probably about right but I feel like UKIP really doesn't stand a chance to even keep 4%, and for the Lib Dems it's almost actually quite optimistic, although absolutely possible considering how strong they once were here. I'll be definitely taking note of this to compare to once the election comes around. Also, for whatever reason, your link doesn't seem to link to the estimates but rather some sort of login page Hopefully this one will work |
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Post by AdminSTB on May 28, 2017 6:10:15 GMT
Cashcroft has some sort of annoying redirect on which leads to that log in if you try and make a direct link. the best way is to navigate from the Home Page following the 2017 seat projections.
Having looked through his Birmingham predictions, I would say the following
Edgbaston is in the right ballpark but a little low for the Tories (not much)
Erdington is too favourable for the Tories
Hall Green is way too favourable for the Tories
Hodge Hill is plausible but Labour are too low
Ladywood is probably the most accurate of them
Northfield feels too high for the Tories
Perry Barr is too high for the Tories
Selly Oak has the others too low, the Lab Con gap is about right
Yardley is a complete joke
Sutton Coldfield doesn't have a high enough Tory mountain.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 28, 2017 8:00:37 GMT
Cashcroft has some sort of annoying redirect on which leads to that log in if you try and make a direct link. the best way is to navigate from the Home Page following the 2017 seat projections. Which is... ? |
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Post by AdminSTB on May 28, 2017 8:32:24 GMT
Cashcroft has some sort of annoying redirect on which leads to that log in if you try and make a direct link. the best way is to navigate from the Home Page following the 2017 seat projections. Which is... ? It's Lord Ashcroft Polls the sidebar on the right has the seat projections. |
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910
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Post by msc on May 28, 2017 9:22:59 GMT
Apparently the SNP will win all the seats in Glasgow with increased majorities. Damn, there goes that suspense!
It's a shame the Nowcast didn't come back. That was fun, and wrong, too.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2017 14:55:52 GMT
Apparently the SNP will win all the seats in Glasgow with increased majorities. Damn, there goes that suspense! It's a shame the Nowcast didn't come back. That was fun, and wrong, too. Retain all the Glasgow seats almost certainly, increased majorities doubtful purely down to lower turnout for one thing. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 28, 2017 14:58:45 GMT
I think that his projection for Ross, Skye and Lochaber may be in the right area.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jun 2, 2017 16:58:49 GMT
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Post by Lifeless on Jun 2, 2017 17:21:31 GMT
Seems that the actual estimates page has broken. Curious to see whats changed. |
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Post by Lifeless on Jun 2, 2017 17:33:30 GMT
Okay, now it's working. Overall Projections -  Not looking too great for the Lib dems in this projection. SNP down by 11 in one case. Greens losing their seat (Hmmmmm). Time to take a look at some individual seats I guess. Croydon CentralCon 45% Lab 41% Lib 7% UKIP 5% I feel like this has either Labour too low, or the Conservatives too high. This will likely be a much closer race Richmond ParkCon 48% Lib 29% Lab 21% .. Really? A 19% difference between Conservatives and Lib Dems? Yeah right. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 2, 2017 21:56:45 GMT
Okay, now it's working. Overall Projections - Not looking too great for the Lib dems in this projection. SNP down by 11 in one case. Greens losing their seat (Hmmmmm). Time to take a look at some individual seats I guess. Croydon CentralCon 45% Lab 41% Lib 7% UKIP 5% I feel like this has either Labour too low, or the Conservatives too high. This will likely be a much closer race Richmond ParkCon 48% Lib 29% Lab 21% .. Really? A 19% difference between Conservatives and Lib Dems? Yeah right. Yes, that 19% may be pessimistic for us. Look at the 2015 result and majority. These people may be liberal, remainer, quinoa/muesli, Guardian, but they are not stupid and don't want Corbyn anywhere near the levers of power. The by-election was a bit of fun but this is back to being serious. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 2, 2017 22:18:44 GMT
Plaid down to one seat?
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 2, 2017 22:33:46 GMT
Yes, that 19% may be pessimistic for us. Look at the 2015 result and majority. These people may be liberal, remainer, quinoa/muesli, Guardian, but they are not stupid and don't want Corbyn anywhere near the levers of power. The by-election was a bit of fun but this is back to being serious. Not really. Plenty of Conservative activists simply aren't willing to campaign in Richmond Park - they'd rather defend their holdings in Kingston or Twickenham than attempt to revive the career Goldsmith, a figure many within the party now hold in contempt. That is bound to be hurting his campaign. His political record since 2015 will hurt him a great deal in RP anyway. 19% is too optimistic by half, IMO - and I am in the camp that believes the Tories will 'hold' the seat. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 2, 2017 22:53:45 GMT
Yes, that 19% may be pessimistic for us. Look at the 2015 result and majority. These people may be liberal, remainer, quinoa/muesli, Guardian, but they are not stupid and don't want Corbyn anywhere near the levers of power. The by-election was a bit of fun but this is back to being serious. Not really. Plenty of Conservative activists simply aren't willing to campaign in Richmond Park - they'd rather defend their holdings in Kingston or Twickenham than attempt to revive the career Goldsmith, a figure many within the party now hold in contempt. That is bound to be hurting his campaign. His political record since 2015 will hurt him a great deal in RP anyway. 19% is too optimistic by half, IMO - and I am in the camp that believes the Tories will 'hold' the seat. This is entirely like 2015 where people of a certain standard of living vote the money for the Conservative Party as an insurance policy. It is not dependent on the ground game, the manifesto or May.......................pure self interest on the day. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 7, 2017 15:02:17 GMT
Okay, now it's working. Overall Projections - Not looking too great for the Lib dems in this projection. SNP down by 11 in one case. Greens losing their seat (Hmmmmm). Time to take a look at some individual seats I guess. Croydon CentralCon 45% Lab 41% Lib 7% UKIP 5% I feel like this has either Labour too low, or the Conservatives too high. This will likely be a much closer race Richmond ParkCon 48% Lib 29% Lab 21% .. Really? A 19% difference between Conservatives and Lib Dems? Yeah right. If they've got Green and Plaid Cymru on 0 and 1 respectively, it goes straight in the rubbish bin. |
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