£100 Fantasy bet competition

[mrhell]

£100 on Labour to win Vauxhall at 8/13. I genuinely did consider putting £100 on them when the odds were a little better but I don't know enough locally. Clearly, this won't be enough to win the competition.

[Harry Hayfield]

Ten £10 bets on the following

Con GAIN Ynys Môn from Lab (13/8)
Plaid GAIN Llanelli from Lab (10/1)
Con GAIN Torfaen from Lab (12/5)
Lib Dem GAIN Cardiff Central from Lab (10/11)
DUP GAIN Belfast South from SDLP (13/8)
Alliance GAIN Belfast East from DUP (8/13)
Green GAIN Bristol West from Lab (15/8)
Lib Dem GAIN Buckingham from Speaker (33/1)
NHA GAIN Surrey South West from Con (No odds offered, but I have seen a price of 10/1 offered)

Changing in light of changing polls

Lab HOLD Ynys Môn
Lab HOLD Llanelli
Lab HOLD Torfaen
Lab HOLD Cardiff Central
SDLP HOLD Belfast South
DUP HOLD Belfast East
Lab HOLD Bristol West
Speaker wins Buckingham
NHA GAIN Surrey South West from Con

I believe this way although I will not win much virtual money, all of my projections will be correct

[Pete Whitehead]

£50 on Labour to win Rotherham at 2/5
£10 on Labour to win Hampstead & Kilburn at 4/1
£10 on Labour to win Hartlepool at 11/4
£10 on Labour to win Alyn & Deeside a4 9/4
£10 on Conservatives to win Banff & Buchan at 11/4
£10 on Conservatives to win Yns Mon at 13/8

The first three are outcomes I have bet on in real life. Was going to go for the Conservatives in Carshalton as the odds were good value when I did place a bet on that but they've become favourites now

[Deleted]

May 10, 2017 8:12:52 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

£50 on Labour to win Rotherham at 2/5
£10 on Labour to win Hampstead & Kilburn at 4/1
£10 on Labour to win Hartlepool at 11/4
£10 on Labour to win Alyn & Deeside a4 9/4
£10 on Conservatives to win Banff & Buchan at 11/4
£10 on Conservatives to win Yns Mon at 13/8

The first three are outcomes I have bet on in real life. Was going to go for the Conservatives in Carshalton as the odds were good value when I did place a bet on that but they've become favourites now

My other half lives in Hampstead and Kilburn (alas, in the Kilburn part of the constituency).

Labour was out canvassing almost as soon as the election was announced. I get the impression that this will be a tougher nut for the Tories to crack than the polls, looked at in isolation,  would suggest.

[clyde1998]

Jun 10, 2017 17:15:41 GMT @fraser said:

May 9, 2017 22:13:40 GMT @fraser said:

Im having £50 on the Conservatives in Aberdeen south @7/5 and £50 on the Conservatives in Gordon @9/2

£375 How did everyone else get on ?

You should've actually put that on.

[Pete Whitehead]

£297.50 I think. I made more in RL, partly thanks to going for the bet on Gordon which I didn't here

[Harry Hayfield]

May 10, 2017 8:03:44 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Ten £10 bets on the following

Con GAIN Ynys Môn from Lab (13/8)
Plaid GAIN Llanelli from Lab (10/1)
Con GAIN Torfaen from Lab (12/5)
Lib Dem GAIN Cardiff Central from Lab (10/11)
DUP GAIN Belfast South from SDLP (13/8)
Alliance GAIN Belfast East from DUP (8/13)
Green GAIN Bristol West from Lab (15/8)
Lib Dem GAIN Buckingham from Speaker (33/1)
NHA GAIN Surrey South West from Con (No odds offered, but I have seen a price of 10/1 offered)

Changing in light of changing polls

Lab HOLD Ynys Môn
Lab HOLD Llanelli
Lab HOLD Torfaen
Lab HOLD Cardiff Central
SDLP HOLD Belfast South
DUP HOLD Belfast East
Lab HOLD Bristol West
Speaker wins Buckingham
NHA GAIN Surrey South West from Con

I believe this way although I will not win much virtual money, all of my projections will be correct

From my first list I got one right (DUP GAIN Belfast South) and on my second list I got seven right, however I cannot access the archived odds

[mrhell]

Jun 10, 2017 21:34:06 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

May 10, 2017 8:03:44 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Ten £10 bets on the following

Con GAIN Ynys Môn from Lab (13/8)
Plaid GAIN Llanelli from Lab (10/1)
Con GAIN Torfaen from Lab (12/5)
Lib Dem GAIN Cardiff Central from Lab (10/11)
DUP GAIN Belfast South from SDLP (13/8)
Alliance GAIN Belfast East from DUP (8/13)
Green GAIN Bristol West from Lab (15/8)
Lib Dem GAIN Buckingham from Speaker (33/1)
NHA GAIN Surrey South West from Con (No odds offered, but I have seen a price of 10/1 offered)

Changing in light of changing polls

Lab HOLD Ynys Môn
Lab HOLD Llanelli
Lab HOLD Torfaen
Lab HOLD Cardiff Central
SDLP HOLD Belfast South
DUP HOLD Belfast East
Lab HOLD Bristol West
Speaker wins Buckingham
NHA GAIN Surrey South West from Con

I believe this way although I will not win much virtual money, all of my projections will be correct

From my first list I got one right (DUP GAIN Belfast South) and on my second list I got seven right, however I cannot access the archived odds

These are the odds from May 10th.
web.archive.org/web/20170510034904/https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics

[Harry Hayfield]

Thank you very much indeed mrhell. As I changed my estimates on June 4th, I have found the right page for that, so here are the calculations

£10 on Lab HOLD Ynys Môn at 13 / 2 = £75
£10 on Lab HOLD Llanelli at 1 / 5 = £12
£10 on Lab HOLD Torfaen at 2 / 5 = £14
£10 on Lab HOLD Cardiff Central at 8 / 13 = £16.15
£10 on SDLP HOLD Belfast South at 5 / 4 = £0
£10 on DUP HOLD Belfast East (No odds given) = £10
£10 on Lab HOLD Bristol West at 1 / 2 = £15
£10 on Speaker wins Buckingham (No odds given) = £10
£10 on NHA GAIN Surrey South West from Con (No odds given) = £0

Total money invested: £90 + £10 in cash
Money won: £132.15 + £30 in refunded bets
Total: £172.15

Incidentally anyone saying Lab gain Canterbury would now be sitting on £340 and if they acced that with Lab gain Kensington they would be looking at £22,780