If all council seats had been up for election in 2017

[Deleted]

There must be a fair few councillors in metropolitan boroughs thanking their lucky stars that they have been shielded from facing election this year. UKIP apparently still have 371 councillors in areas that weren't up.
Might anyone care to guess what might have happened in terms of councils changing hands, voting patterns et cetera? Might Labour have benefited more than the Conservatives from the UKIP slump in certain areas?
I imagine Labour would have held up better in London, partly due to UKIP starting from a relatively low base.

[No Offence Alan]

I expect the LDs might have picked up some seats (but not councils) from Labour in the Remain-ier bits of London e.g. Lambeth, Southwark, Camden, Islington etc.
Might still do in 2018, of course.

[pepperminttea]

May 6, 2017 14:59:03 GMT No Offence Alan said:

I expect the LDs might have picked up some seats (but not councils) from Labour in the Remain-ier bits of London e.g. Lambeth, Southwark, Camden, Islington etc.
Might still do in 2018, of course.

I think it may actually have been better for the Lib Dems if the London boroughs or the big metros had been up this year instead as it would have allowed them to build strong local challenges to Labour which could act as a spring board for the general election (IMO they would have stood a much better chance of upsetting Kate Hoey in Vauxhall if the London Boroughs had been up and they'd performed strongly in Lambeth). But instead the county councils were up so they were forced to fight the Tories and due to the Tories strong national position didn't do very well. Seen as there are very few Lab-LD contests in the county elections they were not able to profit off Labour's misfortunes to anywhere near the same extent they would have been able to with London or the big metros. 

[johnloony]

If the London Boroughs had been elected last week, I would be feeling more (or less) nervous & pessimistic about the likely result of the general election in Croydon Central, and more decisive in my expectations, depending on whether the local election results had been bad (or good). Instead, I am much more nervous because a big unknown factor is how small (or big) the Corbyn factor will be in London compared with the rest of the country.

[londonseal80]

If London Boroughs were elected in 2017

Barking and Dagenham - Lab Hold - Lab 51
Barnet - Con Hold - Con 35 (+5) Lab 25 (-7) LD 3 (+2)
Bexley - Con Hold - Con 55 (+9) Lab 9 (-6) (UKIP -3)
Brent - Lab Hold - Lab 56 Con 4 (-2) LD 3 (+2)
Bromley - Con Hold - Con 55 (+ 4) Lab 5 (-2) (UKIP -2)
Camden - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (-1) Con 11 (-1) Green 4 (+3) (LD -1)
Croydon - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (-3) Con 31 (+3)
Ealing - Lab Hold - Lab 53 Con 11 (-1) LD 5 (+1)
Enfield - Lab Hold - Lab 44 (+3) Con 19 (-3)
Greenwich - Lab Hold - Lab 40 (-3) Con 10 (+2) Green 1 (+1)
Hackney - Lab Hold - Lab 48 (-2) Con 3 (-1) LD 3 Green 3 (+3)
Hammersmith and Fulham - Lab Hold - Lab 25 (-1) Con 21 (+1)
Haringey - Lab Hold - Lab 49 (+1) LD 7 (-2) Green 1 (+1)
Harrow - Lab lose to NOC - Lab 30 (-4) Con 29 (+3) Ind 4 (+3)
Havering - Con gain from NOC - Con 29 (+7) RA 25 (+1) (Lab -1) (UKIP -7)
Hillingdon - Con Hold - Con 46 (+4) Lab 19 (-4)
Hounslow - Lab Hold - Lab 51 (+2) Con 9 (2)
Islington - Lab Hold - Lab 44 (-3) Green 4 (+3)
Kensington and Chelsea - Con Hold - Con 36 (-1) Lab 9 (-2) LD 4 (+3)
Kingston upon Thames - LD gain from Con - LD 28 (+10) Con 20 (-8) (Lab -2)
Lambeth - Lab Hold - Lab 54 (-5) Green 7 (+6) Con 2 (-1)
Lewisham - Lab Hold - Lab 47 (-6) Green 7 (+6)
Merton - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (+3) Con 12 (-5) LD 6 (+5) RA 3
Newham - Lab Hold - Lab 60
Redbridge - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (+4) Con 24 (-1) (LD -3)
Richmond upon Thames - LD gain from Con - LD 34 (+19) Con 20 (-19)
Southwark - Lab Hold - Lab 51 (+3) LD 11 (-2) Con 1 (-1)
Sutton - Con gain from LD - Con 53 (+44) LD 1 (-44)
Tower Hamlets - Lab gain from NOC - Lab 40 (+18) Con 4 (-1) Green 1 (+1) (THF -18)
Waltham Forest - Lab Hold - Lab 45 (+1) Con 15 (-1)
Wandsworth - Con Hold - Con 37 (-4) Lab 23 (+4)
Westminster - Con Hold - Con 38 (-6) Lab 21 (+5) LD 1 (+1)

[Pete Whitehead]

May 26, 2017 19:43:43 GMT londonseal80 said:

If London Boroughs were elected in 2017

Barking and Dagenham - Lab Hold - Lab 51
Barnet - Con Hold - Con 35 (+5) Lab 25 (-7) LD 3 (+2)
Bexley - Con Hold - Con 55 (+9) Lab 9 (-6) (UKIP -3)
Brent - Lab Hold - Lab 56 Con 4 (-2) LD 3 (+2)
Bromley - Con Hold - Con 55 (+ 4) Lab 5 (-2) (UKIP -2)
Camden - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (-1) Con 11 (-1) Green 4 (+3) (LD -1)
Croydon - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (-3) Con 31 (+3)
Ealing - Lab Hold - Lab 53 Con 11 (-1) LD 5 (+1)
Enfield - Lab Hold - Lab 44 (+3) Con 19 (-3)
Greenwich - Lab Hold - Lab 40 (-3) Con 10 (+2) Green 1 (+1)
Hackney - Lab Hold - Lab 48 (-2) Con 3 (-1) LD 3 Green 3 (+3)
Hammersmith and Fulham - Lab Hold - Lab 25 (-1) Con 21 (+1)
Haringey - Lab Hold - Lab 49 (+1) LD 7 (-2) Green 1 (+1)
Harrow - Lab lose to NOC - Lab 30 (-4) Con 29 (+3) Ind 4 (+3)
Havering - Con gain from NOC - Con 29 (+7) RA 25 (+1) (Lab -1) (UKIP -7)
Hillingdon - Con Hold - Con 46 (+4) Lab 19 (-4)
Hounslow - Lab Hold - Lab 51 (+2) Con 9 (2)
Islington - Lab Hold - Lab 44 (-3) Green 4 (+3)
Kensington and Chelsea - Con Hold - Con 36 (-1) Lab 9 (-2) LD 4 (+3)
Kingston upon Thames - LD gain from Con - LD 28 (+10) Con 20 (-8) (Lab -2)
Lambeth - Lab Hold - Lab 54 (-5) Green 7 (+6) Con 2 (-1)
Lewisham - Lab Hold - Lab 47 (-6) Green 7 (+6)
Merton - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (+3) Con 12 (-5) LD 6 (+5) RA 3
Newham - Lab Hold - Lab 60
Redbridge - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (+4) Con 24 (-1) (LD -3)
Richmond upon Thames - LD gain from Con - LD 34 (+19) Con 20 (-19)
Southwark - Lab Hold - Lab 51 (+3) LD 11 (-2) Con 1 (-1)
Sutton - Con gain from LD - Con 53 (+44) LD 1 (-44)
Tower Hamlets - Lab gain from NOC - Lab 40 (+18) Con 4 (-1) Green 1 (+1) (THF -18)
Waltham Forest - Lab Hold - Lab 45 (+1) Con 15 (-1)
Wandsworth - Con Hold - Con 37 (-4) Lab 23 (+4)
Westminster - Con Hold - Con 38 (-6) Lab 21 (+5) LD 1 (+1)

What is this based on?

[iain]

Lib Dems would have done better v Labour, Greens nowhere near that well.

[londonseal80]

May 26, 2017 20:01:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 26, 2017 19:43:43 GMT londonseal80 said:

If London Boroughs were elected in 2017

Barking and Dagenham - Lab Hold - Lab 51
Barnet - Con Hold - Con 35 (+5) Lab 25 (-7) LD 3 (+2)
Bexley - Con Hold - Con 55 (+9) Lab 9 (-6) (UKIP -3)
Brent - Lab Hold - Lab 56 Con 4 (-2) LD 3 (+2)
Bromley - Con Hold - Con 55 (+ 4) Lab 5 (-2) (UKIP -2)
Camden - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (-1) Con 11 (-1) Green 4 (+3) (LD -1)
Croydon - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (-3) Con 31 (+3)
Ealing - Lab Hold - Lab 53 Con 11 (-1) LD 5 (+1)
Enfield - Lab Hold - Lab 44 (+3) Con 19 (-3)
Greenwich - Lab Hold - Lab 40 (-3) Con 10 (+2) Green 1 (+1)
Hackney - Lab Hold - Lab 48 (-2) Con 3 (-1) LD 3 Green 3 (+3)
Hammersmith and Fulham - Lab Hold - Lab 25 (-1) Con 21 (+1)
Haringey - Lab Hold - Lab 49 (+1) LD 7 (-2) Green 1 (+1)
Harrow - Lab lose to NOC - Lab 30 (-4) Con 29 (+3) Ind 4 (+3)
Havering - Con gain from NOC - Con 29 (+7) RA 25 (+1) (Lab -1) (UKIP -7)
Hillingdon - Con Hold - Con 46 (+4) Lab 19 (-4)
Hounslow - Lab Hold - Lab 51 (+2) Con 9 (2)
Islington - Lab Hold - Lab 44 (-3) Green 4 (+3)
Kensington and Chelsea - Con Hold - Con 36 (-1) Lab 9 (-2) LD 4 (+3)
Kingston upon Thames - LD gain from Con - LD 28 (+10) Con 20 (-8) (Lab -2)
Lambeth - Lab Hold - Lab 54 (-5) Green 7 (+6) Con 2 (-1)
Lewisham - Lab Hold - Lab 47 (-6) Green 7 (+6)
Merton - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (+3) Con 12 (-5) LD 6 (+5) RA 3
Newham - Lab Hold - Lab 60
Redbridge - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (+4) Con 24 (-1) (LD -3)
Richmond upon Thames - LD gain from Con - LD 34 (+19) Con 20 (-19)
Southwark - Lab Hold - Lab 51 (+3) LD 11 (-2) Con 1 (-1)
Sutton - Con gain from LD - Con 53 (+44) LD 1 (-44)
Tower Hamlets - Lab gain from NOC - Lab 40 (+18) Con 4 (-1) Green 1 (+1) (THF -18)
Waltham Forest - Lab Hold - Lab 45 (+1) Con 15 (-1)
Wandsworth - Con Hold - Con 37 (-4) Lab 23 (+4)
Westminster - Con Hold - Con 38 (-6) Lab 21 (+5) LD 1 (+1)

What is this based on?

[londonseal80]

Brexit vote

Sutton is a local issue (unpopular council plus UKIP squeeze) I don't believe it will be quite that disastrous for the Lib Dems there. UKIP + Con vote would see the Conservative win pretty much every ward in the borough. The truth is cannot predict results for every borough there's always a few shocks.

[Pete Whitehead]

hmmm.. I think there's a bit more to it than Brexit. Some fairly Brexity areas in Hertfordshire still easily returned Lib Dem county councillors for example.
I take it you expect the Lib Dems to lose Sutton next year then?

[londonseal80]

Depends on the Carshalton result If Brake loses then but yes I expect that Sutton and Kingston will swap political control. The 2017 was just more hypothetical as I say you can't predict elections and strange results can happen, I can see Greens picking up in heavy remain areas because though Corbyn goes down well there the Greens are the ones trying to block Brexit more and those hipsters may not have forgiven the Lib Dems just yet.

The 2014 Sutton results look like the Lib Dems smashed the Conservatives but further analysis shows the UKIP splitting the vote in key wards. The council at the moment is getting bad publicity and the Conservatives should be able to eat into the UKIP vote. The Lib Dems may hold up better in say Sutton South, The Conservatives should pick up wards like Stonecot, Sutton North and even Beddington North and The Wrythe. Wandle Valley and St Helier may be a little far fetched but the leave vote was heavy there and I can't see Corbyn/Abbott/Thornberry going do well there.

[johnloony]

May 26, 2017 19:43:43 GMT londonseal80 said:

If London Boroughs were elected in 2017

Croydon - Lab Hold - Lab 39 (-3) Con 31 (+3)

Croydon in 2014 was Lab 40 Con 30, so -3/+3 would make 37/33 not 39/31.

[londonseal80]

A more serious prediction for 2018

Barking and Dagenham - Lab Hold - Lab 51 (nc)
Barnet - Lab gain from Con - Lab 35 (+5) Con 28 (-5) (LD -1)
Bexley - Con Hold - Con 31 (-17) Lab 18 (+3) (UKIP -3) ward boundary changes
Brent - Lab Hold - Lab 59 Con 4 (-2) (LD -3)
Bromley - Con Hold - Con 48 (- 4) Lab 12 (+7) (UKIP -2)
Camden - Lab Hold - Lab 49 (+9) Con 4 (-8) Green 1 (nc) (LD -1)
Croydon - Lab Hold - Lab 42 (+2) Con 28 (-2) ward boundary changes
Ealing - Lab Hold - Lab 62 (+9) Con 7 (-5) (LD -4)
Enfield - Lab Hold - Lab 44 (+3) Con 19 (-3)
Greenwich - Lab Hold - Lab 47 (+4) Con 4 (-4)
Hackney - Lab Hold - Lab 57 (+4) (Con -4) (LD -3)
Hammersmith and Fulham - Lab Hold - Lab 30 (+4) Con 16 (-4)
Haringey - Lab Hold - Lab 57 (+9) (LD -9)
Harrow - Lab lHold - Lab 36 (+2) Con 23 (-3) Ind 3 (+1)
Havering - NOC No Change - RA 27 (+3) Con 20 (-2) Lab 7 (+6) (UKIP -7)
Hillingdon - Con Hold - Con 38 (-4) Lab 27 (+4)
Hounslow - Lab Hold - Lab 51 (+2) Con 9 (-2)
Islington - Lab Hold - Lab 48 (+1) (Green -1)
Kensington and Chelsea - Con Hold - Con 34 (-3) Lab 16 (+4) (LD -1)
Kingston upon Thames - LD gain from Con - LD 32 (+14) Con 13 (-15) Lab 3 (+1)
Lambeth - Lab Hold - Lab 61 (+2) Con 2 (-1) (Green -1)
Lewisham - Lab Hold - Lab 54 (+1) (Green -1)
Merton - Lab Hold - Lab 44 (+8) Con 13 (-7) RA 3 (nc) (LD -1)
Newham - Lab Hold - Lab 60 (nc)
Redbridge - Lab Hold - Lab 45 (+10) Con 18 (-7) (LD -3) ward boundary changes
Richmond upon Thames - LD gain from Con - LD 46 (+31) Con 8 (-31)
Southwark - Lab Hold - Lab 61 (+ 14) Con 1 (-1) (LD -13) ward boundary changes
Sutton - LD Hold - LD 34 (-11) Con 17 (+8) Lab 3 (+3)
Tower Hamlets - Lab gain from NOC - Lab 45 (+23) (THF -18) (Con -5)
Waltham Forest - Lab Hold - Lab 49 (+5) Con 11 (-5)
Wandsworth - Lab gain from Con - Lab 32 (+13) Con 28 (-13)
Westminster - Con Hold - Con 38 (-6) Lab 22 (+6)

[Harry Hayfield]

If Labour do gain Wandsworth, that's the story of the night right there

[iain]

I very much doubt the Lib Dems will be wiped off all London councils except three where we win control. As an aside, we only have one councillor in Brent (actually none as I think she's gone independent).