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Post by mick745 on Apr 23, 2017 10:10:36 GMT
This is the number of sitting Members of Parliament not standing for reelection at each GE since 1929:
1929 - 82
1931 - 42
1935 - 68
1945 - 141
1950 - 82
1951 - 30
1955 - 45
1959 - 69
1964 - 60
1966 - 38
1970 - 79
1974F - 70
1974O - 15
1979 - 61
1983 - 77
1987 - 87
1992 - 79
1997 - 117
2001 - 78
2005 - 86
2010 - 149
2015 - 90
2017 - ? (21 so far)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 23, 2017 10:54:55 GMT
So already more than the last genuine "snap" election (the second 1974 one)
Could be similar to the previous ones (1951 and 1966) by the time nominations close?
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Post by mick745 on May 12, 2017 20:01:43 GMT
The final figure was 31 this time. Similar to 1951 and 1966 but double that of October 1974.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on May 20, 2017 23:07:18 GMT
Why so many in 2010? Lots of the 1997 intake who could see the writing on the wall?
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on May 20, 2017 23:28:07 GMT
Why so many in 2010? Lots of the 1997 intake who could see the writing on the wall? Plus the expenses scandal, as well as a surprisingly high number of isolated cases of relatively young former Labour Cabinet members whose stars had fallen as quickly as they'd risen. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 21, 2017 10:09:23 GMT
This was a useful historical summary,but presumably only of those who chose to go quietly rather than be sacked by the electorate. Has anyone got a handy list of the numbers of members losing their seats at the ballot box over the same years? Could come in handy for comparison in a few weeks time..
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 21, 2017 10:34:39 GMT
Number of sitting MPs defeated at each election (figures from the Times Guides to the House of Commons):
1929: 127
1931: 225
1935: 85
1945: 173
1950: 70
1951: 25
1955: 19
1959: 33
1964: 62
1966: 51
1970: 77
1974(F): 53
1974(O): 30
1979: 65
1983: 63
1987: 41
1992: 60
1997: 132
2001: 21
2005: 62
2010: 74
2015: 92
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Post by mick745 on May 21, 2017 12:44:05 GMT
Number of sitting MPs defeated at each election (figures from the Times Guides to the House of Commons): 1929: 127 1931: 225 1935: 85 1945: 173 1950: 70 1951: 25 1955: 19 1959: 33 1964: 62 1966: 51 1970: 77 1974(F): 53 1974(O): 30 1979: 65 1983: 63 1987: 41 1992: 60 1997: 132 2001: 21 2005: 62 2010: 74 2015: 92 Thanks for this. Just to say the figures quoted by the Times Guide in 1945, 1974O and 1997 are definitely wrong, so treat with caution, there may be othere wrong as well. I have the correct figures somewhere and will post those when I get access to my PC. |
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Post by mick745 on May 21, 2017 19:59:30 GMT
I have found the figures. The Times Guide seems to have made small errors in most editions. In 2005 for instance 50 sitting MPs were defeated (not 62) and 1950 is also wide of the mark. From memory Sir Derek Spencer was the defeated MP left off the list in 1997. In some years MPs appeared on the list of retirees rather than the defeated list or vice versa. Sometimes they appeared on both lists or were left off altogether. Page 89 of the Parliamentary Research Briefing for 2005 has the list of MPs defeated that year, there are similar lists for the 2010 & 2015 elections also. researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP05-33 2015- 92 2010- 76 2005- 50 2001- 21 1997- 133 1992- 60 1987- 41 1983- 63 1979- 65 1974O- 29 1974F- 52 1970- 78 1966- 51 1964- 63 1959- 33 1955- 19 1951- 25 1950- 84 1945- 174 1935- 88 1931- 225 1929- 127 |
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Post by yellowperil on May 21, 2017 20:14:35 GMT
Thanks to David and to Mick for responding so promptly to my query, and now we will all have a handy reference come June 9th or thereabouts. Two further thoughts - given the discrepancies that have emerged in the lists of defeated candidates, and that some of that appears to be confusion between retirees and losers, are we now absolutely confident the list of retirees is spot on? And secondly, would anyone like to make a prediction as to the number of losers in 2017?
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Post by mick745 on May 21, 2017 20:30:16 GMT
Thanks to David and to Mick for responding so promptly to my query, and now we will all have a handy reference come June 9th or thereabouts. Two further thoughts - given the discrepancies that have emerged in the lists of defeated candidates, and that some of that appears to be confusion between retirees and losers, are we now absolutely confident the list of retirees is spot on? And secondly, would anyone like to make a prediction as to the number of losers in 2017? I have gone through the 'before and after' lists at each GE in the period I have mentioned (since 1929) and double-checked the status of every MP who had not appeared in the following Parliament. I then checked them against the Times Guide lists for possible discrepancies. I am happy to supply lists of the names if anyone wants them and for 'peer review' but I am confident the figures I have quoted are pretty accurate. |
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