mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 22, 2017 23:20:47 GMT
Well both Norwich South and Vauxhall have been mentioned as 'possibles' in some places. (I don't agree in either case, but they are being suggested) No one here has suggested that, have they? |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 22, 2017 23:25:38 GMT
Over on the Bristol West page, a poster suggested the Tories might win from 4th place. After I'd stopped laughing (which was a while), I wondered, this would be very rare: how often are seats are won from 4th place in England anyway? I can't think of any, though Labour won a few from 3rd place in 1997. This wouldn't count parties winning where they hadn't stood before (eg Respect). Also, how many seats in England are the Tories in 4th place (or worse) anyway? I'm guessing as well as Bristol West, there might be a couple of Northern urban seats where they are behind Lab, ukip, Lib Dem, and a couple where behind Lab, Lib Dem, Green... Conservatives finished 4th in Birmingham Yardley, Bristol West, Burnley and Redcar Thanks Rat! I don't think anyone has been able to answer the first question yet though... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 1, 2017 9:02:59 GMT
If you go from a win back into fourth place in a general election, it's going to be a special case.
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Post by casualobserver on May 1, 2017 10:21:04 GMT
Slightly cheating, but Labour came from third and fourth places in the two-member Derby Constituency in 1935 to win both seats in 1945.
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Post by finsobruce on May 1, 2017 10:34:43 GMT
Slightly cheating, but Labour came from third and fourth places in the two-member Derby Constituency in 1935 to win both seats in 1945. and similarly in Norwich, Blackburn, Southampton.... |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 1, 2017 16:03:28 GMT
Looks like we still don't have an example of a "regular" win from 4th place in England then!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 22:11:57 GMT
Over on the Bristol West page, a poster suggested the Tories might win from 4th place. After I'd stopped laughing (which was a while), I wondered, this would be very rare: how often are seats are won from 4th place in England anyway? I can't think of any, though Labour won a few from 3rd place in 1997. This wouldn't count parties winning where they hadn't stood before (eg Respect). Also, how many seats in England are the Tories in 4th place (or worse) anyway? I'm guessing as well as Bristol West, there might be a couple of Northern urban seats where they are behind Lab, ukip, Lib Dem, and a couple where behind Lab, Lib Dem, Green... Tories won Watford from 3rd in 2010. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 4, 2017 22:14:45 GMT
Winning from 3rd is easier, happens several times per election!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 22:37:50 GMT
Winning from 3rd is easier, happens several times per election! Well prior to Carswell winning Clacton in 2014 the BNP were in 4th. Not quite the same I know... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 22:39:17 GMT
Winning from 3rd is easier, happens several times per election! George Galliway Bradford West was from 5th |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 4, 2017 22:50:56 GMT
^ Was a byelection though, right?
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Post by warofdreams on May 4, 2017 23:09:25 GMT
I'm pretty sure that there aren't any examples of winning from fourth in an English seat at a general election, outside multi-member seats.
Speaking of multi-member seats, the case of John Graham Kerr, Unionist MP for the Combined Scottish Universities, is interesting. He topped the poll in a 1935 by-election and the general election later that year. At the next general election in 1945, he came fifth with only 4.2% despite being the only official Unionist candidate - but he was elected nonetheless as the election was held under STV. In a by-election the following year, Walter Elliot stood for the Unionists and took 68.2%.
One other spectacular performance under unusual circumstances: Labour stood in Glasgow Gorbals in 1935. Only three candidates, and they came a distant third, with 5.9%. The winner, George Buchanan of the ILP, defected to Labour in 1939; in 1945, the ILP didn't even bother standing, while Buchanan for Labour took 80.0% of the vote.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 23:43:24 GMT
The Scottish prohibitionist party (lol) went from 3rd to 1st to 4th at successive elections in Dundee.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 20, 2017 23:16:04 GMT
The Scottish prohibitionist party (lol) went from 3rd to 1st to 4th at successive elections in Dundee. Beating Churchill in the process. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 20, 2017 23:21:09 GMT
The Scottish prohibitionist party (lol) went from 3rd to 1st to 4th at successive elections in Dundee. Beating Churchill in the process. Oh, the irony. |
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jluk234
Conservative
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Post by jluk234 on Jun 4, 2017 12:53:38 GMT
I know this happened in last year's Holyrood election and not any previous UK general elections but the Conservatives went from 4th to 1st in Edinburgh Central.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 4, 2017 18:57:41 GMT
I honestly think from this list they will only lose Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, East Dunbartonshire, and Edinburgh West. North East Fife will be a long shot. Labour's vote will still fall in Scotland.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 5, 2017 8:16:04 GMT
Looks like we still don't have an example of a "regular" win from 4th place in England then! The thing is that there are very few seats in which a major party are going to finish 4th in England. The only reason why there are recent examples of this happening in Scotland and Wales is that there are four major parties. The question for Scotland and Wales may be more comparable to England if you ask if anyone has won from 5th.  |
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 5, 2017 8:21:04 GMT
Labour won Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber in 1997, from (notionally) 4th place in 1992.David Stewart was the MP. This was a very rare (possibly only?) example of a four-way marginal, with the Labour being, notionally, behind the Lib Dems by just 3.5% of the vote. In fact, the Lib Dems would've gone from 1st to 4th in this seat in 1997, if they'd received ten less votes in that seat. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 6, 2017 0:54:55 GMT
Labour won Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber in 1997, from (notionally) 4th place in 1992.David Stewart was the MP. This was a very rare (possibly only?) example of a four-way marginal, with the Labour being, notionally, behind the Lib Dems by just 3.5% of the vote. In fact, the Lib Dems would've gone from 1st to 4th in this seat in 1997, if they'd received ten less votes in that seat. It depends on how you define "four-way marginal". The usual definition of "marginal" is a gap of less than 10% of the total vote between the top two candidates, but if there are four candidates involved then my personal definition is that it counts if the 1st candidate has less than twice the number of votes as the 4th. Thus, Ceredigion in 1992 would be one. |
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