Winning from 4th in general elections?

[mboy]

Over on the Bristol West page, a poster suggested the Tories might win from 4th place. After I'd stopped laughing (which was a while), I wondered, this would be very rare: how often are seats are won from 4th place in England anyway? I can't think of any, though Labour won a few from 3rd place in 1997. This wouldn't count parties winning where they hadn't stood before (eg Respect).

Also, how many seats in England are the Tories in 4th place (or worse) anyway? I'm guessing as well as Bristol West, there might be a couple of Northern urban seats where they are behind Lab, ukip, Lib Dem, and a couple where behind Lab, Lib Dem, Green...

[lennon]

I know you said England, but presumably the SNP had been in 4th in some of the Scottish seats prior to winning in 2015.

Also, there seems to be a number of people suggesting the Libs winning from a 'false' 4th in a number of seats this year.

[iain]

Plaid gained Ceredigion & Pembroke North from 4th in 1992 if you want to include Wales

[iain]

Also, Clacton was won from nowhere by UKIP, but, had they opposed Carswell in 2010, they would surely have been fourth, so that would have fit the bill.

[finsobruce]

How far back do you want to go?

[The Bishop]

Apr 22, 2017 15:49:20 GMT lennon said:

I know you said England, but presumably the SNP had been in 4th in some of the Scottish seats prior to winning in 2015.

Also, there seems to be a number of people suggesting the Libs winning from a 'false' 4th in a number of seats this year.

Such as?

[mboy]

Apr 22, 2017 16:07:56 GMT finsobruce said:

How far back do you want to go?

As far as necessary

[mboy]

Apr 22, 2017 15:49:45 GMT iain said:

Plaid gained Ceredigion & Pembroke North from 4th in 1992 if you want to include Wales

I don't - having a historically strong (ish) 4th party changes the dynamic.

[The Bishop]

Btw (and most people don't realise this) Respect actually stood in Bradford W at the 2010 GE - and came 5th behind the BNP (!) but ahead of the Greens and UKIP.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 22, 2017 16:11:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 22, 2017 15:49:20 GMT lennon said:

I know you said England, but presumably the SNP had been in 4th in some of the Scottish seats prior to winning in 2015.

Also, there seems to be a number of people suggesting the Libs winning from a 'false' 4th in a number of seats this year.

Such as?

Vauxhall for one

[Tom]

Lib Dems fell from 1st to 4th in Norwich South in 2015. Think that's pretty rare.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Apr 22, 2017 17:57:52 GMT Tom said:

Lib Dems fell from 1st to 4th in Norwich South in 2015. Think that's pretty rare.

The Ulster Unionists did it in Belfast North in 2001.

[The Bishop]

I think those two are the only instances in modern times (not including sitting MPs who stood as Indies/for minor parties etc)

First to third examples are slightly less rare, but still not numerous.

[mick745]

Labour won Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber in 1997, from (notionally) 4th place in 1992.David Stewart was the MP.

[Tom]

Apr 22, 2017 18:41:41 GMT The Bishop said:

I think those two are the only instances in modern times (not including sitting MPs who stood as Indies/for minor parties etc)

First to third examples are slightly less rare, but still not numerous.

The 2015 election must have set a record number of first to thirds, in Scotland and in Lib Dem seats.

[lennon]

Apr 22, 2017 16:11:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 22, 2017 15:49:20 GMT lennon said:

I know you said England, but presumably the SNP had been in 4th in some of the Scottish seats prior to winning in 2015.

Also, there seems to be a number of people suggesting the Libs winning from a 'false' 4th in a number of seats this year.

Such as?

Well both Norwich South and Vauxhall have been mentioned as 'possibles' in some places. (I don't agree in either case, but they are being suggested)

[The Bishop]

I find it hard to believe even the most partisan LibDem remotely thinks they can win Norwich S this time. Vauxhall is a bit sui generis, I agree.

[greatkingrat]

Apr 22, 2017 15:45:06 GMT mboy said:

Over on the Bristol West page, a poster suggested the Tories might win from 4th place. After I'd stopped laughing (which was a while), I wondered, this would be very rare: how often are seats are won from 4th place in England anyway? I can't think of any, though Labour won a few from 3rd place in 1997. This wouldn't count parties winning where they hadn't stood before (eg Respect).

Also, how many seats in England are the Tories in 4th place (or worse) anyway? I'm guessing as well as Bristol West, there might be a couple of Northern urban seats where they are behind Lab, ukip, Lib Dem, and a couple where behind Lab, Lib Dem, Green...

Conservatives finished 4th in Birmingham Yardley, Bristol West, Burnley and Redcar

[No Offence Alan]

A bit out of scope, I admit, but the French Socialists are probably going to go from 1st to 5th.

[greenhert]

Apr 22, 2017 15:49:20 GMT lennon said:

I know you said England, but presumably the SNP had been in 4th in some of the Scottish seats prior to winning in 2015.

Also, there seems to be a number of people suggesting the Libs winning from a 'false' 4th in a number of seats this year.

They were indeed 4th in some of those seats prior to winning in 2015-Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk most notably.