France: which two candidates will make it into the run-off?

[mrpastelito]

As it says on the tin.

[Devil Wincarnate]

I've got this weird feeling that Macron won't make it.  Something in my bones makes me think that he's just too vague compared to just about every other major candidate, and that people might change their mind on the day.

[Deleted]

If it had been left to this forum, it would have been Macron vs. Hamon!

[thirdchill]

If Macron makes it to the final two, then he will almost certainly be president. The other three candidates have far too many detractors and are too divisive to beat him. Opinion polls show him winning handsomely against all three in any run-off scenario, though with a smaller margin when pitted against Melenchon.

Melenchon vs Le Pen is the EU's worst nightmare.

[The Bishop]

Apr 22, 2017 10:19:47 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I've got this weird feeling that Macron won't make it.  Something in my bones makes me think that he's just too vague compared to just about every other major candidate, and that people might change their mind on the day.

Quite a few people are saying this, but the late polls are if anything showing him strengthening his position slightly.

[johng]

Melenchon vs Le Pen would be the worst possible result. Anything else wouldn't be too bad I suppose.

I think it will be Macron and LePen.

[Deleted]

I think Le Pen-Fillon on the basis that their undecideds are lower. I think also ultimately French conservatives will not want to pass up the chance to retake the presidency even with a flawed candidate like FF and so will turn out for him. Macron I think has not quite sealed the deal and will lose some voters on the day, though as observed he did manage to arrest the decline in his numbers in the last few days.

[hedgehog]

Ive gone for Hamon and Le Pen, Hamon because of his support for the basic income, the rest of the candidates are a pretty uninspiring bunch, or maybe their appeal is lost in translation.

[jamie]

Apr 22, 2017 17:59:00 GMT hedgehog said:

Ive gone for Hamon and Le Pen, Hamon because of his support for the basic income, the rest of the candidates are a pretty uninspiring bunch, or maybe their appeal is lost in translation.

He's polling at 7%, so I doubt it. Half his voters recently abandoned him for further left Melechon who has much more chance of getting in the run off. 

[hedgehog]

Apr 22, 2017 19:48:18 GMT jamie said:

Apr 22, 2017 17:59:00 GMT hedgehog said:

Ive gone for Hamon and Le Pen, Hamon because of his support for the basic income, the rest of the candidates are a pretty uninspiring bunch, or maybe their appeal is lost in translation.

He's polling at 7%, so I doubt it. Half his voters recently abandoned him for further left Melechon who has much more chance of getting in the run off. 

Just shows how closely I had been following the French elections, not aware of him, he sounds like he would get my vote www.thelocal.fr/20170422/why-people-say-theyll-vote-mlenchon-for-president .

[oddroutes]

something like Le Pen 25, Macron 23, Melenchon 19, Fillon 18, Hamon 7

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 22, 2017 19:59:52 GMT hedgehog said:

Apr 22, 2017 19:48:18 GMT jamie said:

He's polling at 7%, so I doubt it. Half his voters recently abandoned him for further left Melechon who has much more chance of getting in the run off. 

Just shows how closely I had been following the French elections, not aware of him, he sounds like he would get my vote www.thelocal.fr/20170422/why-people-say-theyll-vote-mlenchon-for-president .

Rum chancer, obsessive Germanophobe, an apologist for the DDR, a loudmouth egotist, multi-millionaire who opposes everyone else becoming wealthy....vile man.

[john07]

The two nightmare scenarios are Le Pen v Fillion (the fascist or the crook) and Le Pen v Melachon ( the fascist or the trot).

There will be a lot of 'nose holding' in the polling stations in either case.

[jamie]

My prediction:
Macron 26
Le Pen - 24
Melechon 19
Fillon 19
Hamon 7
Dupont Aignan 3
Others 2

I would be quite surprised to not see Le Pen and Macron in the final 2, but it could be a lot closer eg; 24/23 and 22/21 for Macron/Le Pen and Melechon/Fillon respectively.

[mondialito]

For all the noise surrounding him in recent weeks, I just can't see Melenchon making the final round. I will say Macron and Le Pen.

[mrpastelito]

Le Pen and Fillon, for the record.

[carlton43]

Apr 23, 2017 9:30:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Apr 22, 2017 19:59:52 GMT hedgehog said:

Just shows how closely I had been following the French elections, not aware of him, he sounds like he would get my vote www.thelocal.fr/20170422/why-people-say-theyll-vote-mlenchon-for-president .

Rum chancer, obsessive Germanophobe, an apologist for the DDR, a loudmouth egotist, multi-millionaire who opposes everyone else becoming wealthy....vile man.

And has the courtesy to look and sound vile as well.

[carlton43]

I regard recent events and the general national mood-music to be under-represented in the current not very professional nor accurate polls.  Within that climate I regard Le Pen and Fillon to be the most likely to be under-represented by such polls with shy responses from the stolid centrist and centre right lower middle classes who are probably much more anti-Muslim and pissed off than prepared to admit to any interviewer. I suspect this is rather like Brexit with a quiescent minor volcano stewing in annoyance and itching to poke the establishment in the eye. This could be quite a surprise, even a shock result.

It is quite possible that the Centre and Centre Left fracture enough to permit a Fillon-Le Pen run off with even a narrow Le Pen win? I would very much like that to be the two results but also believe it to be possible as well. If not, I hope for a Melenchon win. He will be nearly as big a problem to the EU and likely to bugger up France even more than Hollande, which certainly suits me. I want to see a weak and under-performing France anxious about its trade with us and thus more sensible and compliant.

[yellowperil]

Carlton - If you think a Preident Melenchon would be weak and underperforming, you might have a point, but cannot really understand why you should think that is in Britain's interest, but you also think he would be sensible and compliant? Really?

[Georg Ebner]

Could be ultratight, at least Fillon and Macron, perhaps also LePen, in the worst case including Melenchon, all at 22%.
Most certain is a discussion for ElectoralReform (introducing AV/STV aso.).